Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Total Revenue $634 million, a decline of 70 basis points year-over-year. Constant currency revenue declined 120 basis points year-over-year to $631 million. Excluding the impact of FormSwift, which acted as a 150 basis point headwind to revenue, year-over-year constant currency revenue was slightly positive, driven by relative strength in individual SKUs.
Total ARR $2.536 billion, down 1.7% year-over-year and 1.5% on a constant currency basis. FormSwift acted as a 160 basis point headwind to ARR in the quarter.
Paying Users 18.07 million, a sequential decline of approximately 64,000 paying users. The decline was primarily driven by downsell within the managed account base and reduced investment in FormSwift. Positive traction was seen from the Simple SKU, a lower-priced, lower storage plan targeted to mobile-first users.
Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPU) $139.07, compared to $138.32 in the prior quarter. ARPU increased sequentially due to FX rate tailwinds and shifts to higher-priced and monthly plans.
Gross Margin 81.4%, down 260 basis points from the year-ago period. The decline reflects higher depreciation from the data center refresh cycle and investments in infrastructure for Dash.
Operating Margin 41.1%, up roughly 490 basis points from the year-ago period. The increase was due to headcount reductions, elimination of marketing spend for FormSwift, and targeted reductions in core performance marketing. Compared to guidance, operating margin benefited from delayed hiring, lower outside services, and marketing spend, as well as some one-time benefits.
Net Income $197 million, up 3% year-over-year.
Diluted EPS $0.74, compared to $0.60 in the year-ago quarter, representing a 23% year-over-year increase.
Cash Flow from Operations $302 million, an increase of 10% versus the year-ago period. Q3 included $21 million of interest payments, net of the associated tax benefit related to amounts drawn under the term loan facility.
Capital Expenditures $8 million in the quarter, resulting in unlevered free cash flow of $314 million or $1.19 per share, up 39% year-over-year.
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- Surge in Short Bets: Hedge funds have made a $24 billion profit from shorting software stocks this year, coinciding with a $1 trillion decline in the industry's overall market value, indicating a growing pessimism towards the software sector.
- Market Turmoil Intensifies: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has dropped 8% this week, bringing its year-to-date losses to over 21%, and a 30% decline from its all-time high last September, reflecting waning investor confidence in the software industry.
- Expectations of Structural Change: Investors increasingly believe that the software sector may be undergoing a
Concerns about Software Companies: There are growing worries regarding the profitability of software companies, prompting a reevaluation of their financial health.
Attraction of Profitable Stocks: As a result of these concerns, stocks with genuine earnings are becoming more appealing to investors.
- Funding Background: Sentra.app successfully raised $5 million in a seed round co-led by a16z speedrun and Together Fund, attracting notable investors including SoftBank, indicating strong market demand for its enterprise intelligence solutions.
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- Investment Strategy: It is an opportune time to invest in technology stocks, particularly in select companies.
- Market Outlook: The current market conditions suggest a favorable environment for buying into tech stocks.
- Pay Package Restoration: The Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Musk's 2018 compensation plan, previously deemed 'unfathomable' by a lower court, enabling Musk to finally receive pay for his transformative work since 2018 while restoring Delaware's business-friendly reputation.
- Equity Incentive Value: The plan allows Musk to acquire approximately 304 million Tesla shares at a discounted price, with an estimated value of $56 billion in 2018, which surged to around $120 billion by November due to stock price increases, highlighting Musk's direct contribution to Tesla's success.
- Shareholder Voting Impact: Tesla's board faced lawsuits that delayed Musk's stock options, and the court's ruling revealed conflicts of interest among directors, leading to the plan's rescission and exposing vulnerabilities in corporate governance.
- Future Compensation Plans: The new pay package approved in November could be worth up to $878 billion if Tesla meets targets for self-driving vehicles, a robotaxi network, and humanoid robot sales, demonstrating the company's ambitious vision for future technological advancements.
Leadership Change: Dropbox's CFO Timothy Regan is stepping down, with Ross Tennenbaum, former president and CFO of Avalara, taking over to drive the company's AI initiatives, particularly the monetization of Dropbox Dash.
Investment Narrative: The transition aims to pivot Dropbox from a declining cloud storage business to a more valuable AI-enhanced productivity platform, with a focus on increasing average revenue per user (ARPU) and reducing churn.
Revenue Projections: Dropbox projects $2.5 billion in revenue and $494.6 million in earnings by 2028, despite a forecasted yearly revenue decline, highlighting the importance of successful AI product integration to offset core storage revenue challenges.
Market Sentiment: Investors are divided on Dropbox's future value, with fair value estimates ranging significantly, emphasizing the critical question of whether AI tools like Dash can effectively counteract declining revenues and competition.










