TMC Advances in Deep-Sea Mining Permits
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Permit Application Progress: TMC has become the first company to submit a commercial recovery permit application under the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, covering approximately 25,000 square kilometers and estimated to contain 619 million wet tonnes of polymetallic nodules, with potential projects having an after-tax net present value of $23.6 billion, indicating significant commercial prospects.
- Geopolitical Impact: The U.S. government is accelerating efforts to find alternative sources of nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese in response to China's dominance in the critical minerals processing market, with clear policy direction prioritizing secure mineral supplies, creating a more favorable environment for TMC's projects.
- Market Risk Warning: Despite TMC's progress in permit applications, deep-sea mining remains highly controversial, with over 40 countries supporting a temporary moratorium for environmental research, and legal challenges or policy changes could delay commercial production, necessitating caution for investors.
- Liquidity Concerns: TMC has yet to generate meaningful operating cash flow and may require additional financing before large-scale mining begins, as the company currently has only about 10 months of working capital and capital expenditure commitments, raising concerns about its financial health.
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Analyst Views on TMC
Wall Street analysts forecast TMC stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 4.240
Low
6.50
Averages
8.33
High
11.00
Current: 4.240
Low
6.50
Averages
8.33
High
11.00
About TMC
TMC the metals company Inc. is a deep-sea minerals exploration company. The Company is focused on the collection and processing of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in international waters of the Clarion Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean (CCZ), located approximately 1,300 nautical miles southwest of San Diego, California. The CCZ is a geological submarine fracture zone of abyssal plains and other formations in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, with a length of around 4,500 miles that spans approximately 1,737,000 square miles. These nodules contain high grades of four metals (nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese) which can be used as feedstock for battery cathode precursors (nickel, cobalt and manganese sulfates, or intermediate nickel-copper-cobalt matte) for electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage markets; copper cathode for EV wiring, energy transmission and other applications, and manganese silicate for manganese alloy production required for steel production.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Growing Market Demand: The global demand for rare earth metals is increasing, particularly in defense and high-tech sectors; however, TMC has yet to commence production, posing significant investment risks.
- Government Support Acceleration: The U.S. government is pushing for process changes to help TMC obtain necessary mining permits, although the current progress is limited to the formal certification of the application.
- Deep-Sea Mining Challenges: TMC's plan to establish a deep-sea mining operation is extremely complex, and it is unlikely to achieve profitability within the next year, necessitating caution from investors.
- Long-Term Investment Risks: As a money-losing startup, TMC may still not achieve profitability in the coming year, prompting conservative investors to consider waiting until the company has production capabilities before investing.
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- Market Competition Pressure: As the world's main supplier of rare-earth metals, China uses its resources as a geopolitical bargaining chip, putting The Metals Company under significant market competition pressure, especially against the backdrop of increasing global demand for rare-earth metals.
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- Current Market Situation: Rare earth metals primarily come from China, and their importance in electric vehicles and the defense industry means that supply restrictions could severely impact automotive production, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with far-reaching consequences.
- MP Materials' Leading Development: As a frontrunner in the rare earth metals industry, MP Materials operates a mine in California and has processing capabilities, with an expected adjusted profit in Q1 2026, indicating potential for sustainable profitability.
- Challenges for USA Rare Earth: USA Rare Earth is building a mine in Texas, which will take several years to complete and is currently unprofitable; however, it is aggressively acquiring assets, including an operating mine in South America, showing promising progress.
- High-Risk Profile of The Metals Company: The Metals Company plans to build an undersea mine, facing regulatory approvals and high costs; while it has significant growth potential, it is only suitable for investors with a high-risk tolerance, as it may continue to incur losses in the short term.
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- Growing Market Demand: The global demand for rare earth metals is increasing, particularly in defense and high-tech sectors; however, TMC has yet to commence production, posing significant investment risks.
- Government Support Acceleration: The U.S. government is pushing for process changes to help TMC obtain necessary mining permits, although the current progress is limited to the formal certification of the application.
- Deep-Sea Mining Challenges: TMC's plan to establish a deep-sea mining operation is extremely complex, and it is unlikely to achieve profitability within the next year, necessitating caution from investors.
- Long-Term Investment Risks: As a money-losing startup, TMC may still not achieve profitability in the coming year, prompting conservative investors to consider waiting until the company has production capabilities before investing.
See More
SMR, TMC, and SPWR Stocks Plummet Amid Financial Pressures
- NuScale Power Financial Crisis: NuScale Power's stock fell to an annual low of $8.64 on Tuesday, a sharp decline from its year-to-date high of $57.42, primarily due to extended commercialization timelines and profitability concerns, with major power projects now expected to deploy by 2030, impacting future revenue growth.
- Dismal Financial Performance: The company reported a staggering 96% year-over-year revenue drop in Q1 to $0.57 million, significantly below last year's $13.38 million and Wall Street's $5.57 million estimate, largely due to reduced revenue from its RoPower technology licensing agreement and lower contributions from Fluor FEED Phase II engineering services, resulting in a net loss per share of $0.14.
- The Metals Company Continues Decline: TMC's stock hit a 52-week low of $3.86 on Tuesday, on track for a fourth consecutive week of losses if the sell-off persists, despite recent regulatory wins, including NOAA's certification of its exploration license and an agreement with Allseas to develop a deep-sea mineral recovery system, with the stock down over 40% this year amid a challenging market.
- SunPower Liquidity Crisis: SPWR shares fell to an annual low of $0.58 despite the appointment of a new CFO, as liquidity issues worsen, with a cash balance of only $9.5 million at the end of Q1 and an operating loss of $12.9 million, leading to a 64% decline in stock price this year and sustained bearish retail sentiment.
See More
The Metals Company Faces Challenges in Deep-Sea Mining Plans
- Government Support Strengthens: The U.S. government is pushing for changes to the process that would allow The Metals Company to obtain the necessary permits for its deep-sea mining operation, which will accelerate the company's development, although it remains in a loss-making state and far from actual production.
- Permit Application Progress: The Metals Company's permit application has been formally certified by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which, while only indicating that the application was filled out correctly, marks an important step in the complex approval process for the company.
- Market Competition Pressure: As the world's main supplier of rare-earth metals, China uses its resources as a geopolitical bargaining chip, putting The Metals Company under significant market competition pressure, especially against the backdrop of increasing global demand for rare-earth metals.
- Investment Risk Warning: The Metals Company is viewed as a high-risk investment, likely remaining in a loss-making state over the next year, prompting conservative investors to consider waiting until the company achieves profitability before investing.
See More
TMC The Metals Company Faces Investment Challenges
- Significant Investment Risk: TMC The Metals Company is currently not producing rare-earth metals and is expected to remain a money-losing startup for at least another year, making it a high-risk investment suitable only for aggressive investors with a long-term horizon.
- Increased Government Support: The U.S. government is pushing for changes in the approval process to help TMC obtain the necessary permits for its planned mining operations, aiming to accelerate the company's development, although it has only achieved formal certification of its application so far.
- Intensifying Industry Competition: As the main supplier of rare-earth metals, China uses its resources as a geopolitical bargaining chip, prompting countries to increase support for rare-earth metal producers, which has drawn more attention to TMC in this context.
- Market Caution Advised: Most investors should approach TMC's stock with caution, recommending that they maintain a safe distance until the company becomes profitable or establishes a producing mine to mitigate investment risks.
See More
Analysis of Investment Opportunities in Rare Earth Metals
- MP Materials Progress: MP Materials operates a rare earth metals mine in California and has processing facilities, achieving adjusted profits in Q1 2026, indicating its potential for sustainable profitability, which attracts long-term investor interest.
- USA Rare Earth Acquisition Moves: USA Rare Earth recently acquired a rare earth metals mine in South America and is building a new mine in Texas; while currently unprofitable, its aggressive acquisition strategy and processing capabilities in the U.S. and Europe show promising development prospects.
- The Metals Company Risks and Potential: The Metals Company plans to build an undersea mine, facing high risks and regulatory approval challenges, but its unique business model may attract investors seeking high growth potential, despite likely ongoing losses in the short term.
- Rare Earth Market Outlook: With increasing global demand for rare earth metals, particularly in electric vehicles and defense sectors, the developments of MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, and The Metals Company will provide crucial supply for the U.S. market, although investment risks remain high.
See More
Analysis of Investment Opportunities in Rare Earth Metals
- Current Market Situation: Rare earth metals primarily come from China, and their importance in electric vehicles and the defense industry means that supply restrictions could severely impact automotive production, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with far-reaching consequences.
- MP Materials' Leading Development: As a frontrunner in the rare earth metals industry, MP Materials operates a mine in California and has processing capabilities, with an expected adjusted profit in Q1 2026, indicating potential for sustainable profitability.
- Challenges for USA Rare Earth: USA Rare Earth is building a mine in Texas, which will take several years to complete and is currently unprofitable; however, it is aggressively acquiring assets, including an operating mine in South America, showing promising progress.
- High-Risk Profile of The Metals Company: The Metals Company plans to build an undersea mine, facing regulatory approvals and high costs; while it has significant growth potential, it is only suitable for investors with a high-risk tolerance, as it may continue to incur losses in the short term.
See More
