Three picks from investor Kevin Simpson to capitalize on this market melt-up
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 13 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MCD?
Source: CNBC
Investment Strategy: Kevin Simpson from Capital Wealth Planning is focusing on value picks and utilizing options strategies to generate income, while also investing in leading stocks like Meta, despite its recent gains.
Market Outlook: Simpson believes the current market is benefiting from a potential rate-cut environment, suggesting that investors should be cautious not to miss out on short-term upside opportunities.
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Analyst Views on MCD
Wall Street analysts forecast MCD stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 284.100
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
Current: 284.100
Low
300.00
Averages
337.63
High
375.00
About MCD
McDonald's Corporation is a global foodservice retailer. Its segment includes U.S., International Operated Markets, and International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate. The U.S. segment is its largest market and is 95% franchised. The International Operated Markets segment comprises markets or countries in which it operates and franchises restaurants, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom. This segment is 89% franchised. The International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate segment comprises development licensee and affiliate markets, including equity method investments in China and Japan. This segment is 99% franchised. Its menu features hamburgers and cheeseburgers, the Big Mac, the Quarter Pounder with Cheese, the Filet-O-Fish, and several chicken sandwiches, such as the McChicken and McCrispy as well as Chicken McNuggets, Fries, shakes, sundaes, cookies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
McDonald's Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Significant Revenue Growth: McDonald's reported Q1 revenue of $6.52 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, surpassing the market expectation of $6.47 billion, highlighting strong performance in key markets, particularly the U.K., Germany, and Australia.
- Earnings Per Share Exceeds Expectations: The adjusted earnings per share reached $2.83, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.74, reflecting the company's competitive edge in value and affordability, which further boosts investor confidence.
- Global Sales Growth: Global comparable sales grew by 3.8%, with positive growth in both the U.S. and international markets, indicating McDonald's continued expansion of market share, especially in markets demonstrating strong execution.
- Restructuring Costs Impact: The company incurred a pre-tax restructuring charge of $47 million during the quarter as part of its internal effort to modernize workflows; nevertheless, the overall performance remained robust, demonstrating the company's commitment to operational optimization.
See More
MCDONALD'S CEO REPORTS MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT DID NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT Q1 RESULTS, BUT OPERATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE - CONFERENCE CALL
Impact of Middle East Conflict: McDonald's CEO stated that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East did not materially affect the company's Q1 results.
Operating Environment Concerns: Despite the stable financial results, the CEO noted that the operating environment remains volatile.
See More
McDonald's Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Global Sales Growth: McDonald's achieved a 6% increase in global system-wide sales and a 3.8% rise in comparable sales in Q1 2026, indicating sustained market share gains in key markets, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the fast-food industry.
- U.S. Market Strategy: CEO Kempczinski emphasized that McDonald's will not be outdone on value and affordability, introducing a revamped McValue menu featuring items under $3 and a $4 breakfast meal deal, aimed at attracting more consumers and boosting sales.
- Profitability and Cost Control: The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.83, including a $0.13 benefit from foreign currency translation, with an adjusted operating margin of 46%; however, U.S. company-operated margins were unsatisfactory, prompting management to reassess the optimal balance between franchisee and company ownership.
- Future Outlook and Risks: Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 financial targets, expecting foreign currency to positively impact EPS by $0.20 to $0.30, but warned of slightly negative sales in April and potential increased cost inflation risks, particularly in the volatile Middle Eastern operating environment.
See More
Mixed Stock Performance as Software Stocks Rebound Amid Market Rotation
- Market Volatility: Stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors assessed whether the U.S. and Iran were nearing an agreement to end the war, leading to a notable rotation within the market where hardware stocks faced pressure while software stocks rebounded due to strong earnings reports.
- Software Stock Rebound: Strong results from cybersecurity firm Fortinet boosted software stocks, benefiting companies like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks; despite Jim Cramer's concerns about potential AI disruptions to cybersecurity vendors, investor confidence appears to be recovering.
- Partnership Impact: Jim highlighted the partnership between Nvidia and Corning as a potentially significant shift for AI infrastructure, with Corning planning to increase optical fiber connectivity manufacturing capacity tenfold; although Corning's shares dipped slightly on Thursday, they had surged 12% the previous day due to the Nvidia deal.
- Rapid Stock Review: Stocks mentioned at the end of the video included McDonald's, Shake Shack, DoorDash, Fortinet, and Datadog; Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust holds positions in Arm, Corning, CrowdStrike, Nvidia, and Palo Alto, and subscribers receive trade alerts before any transactions.
See More
McDonald's Phasing Out Self-Serve Soda Fountains
- Soda Machine Transition: McDonald's plans to phase out self-serve soda fountains by 2032, moving them behind the counter to enhance customer and crew experiences, although free refills will still be at the discretion of franchisees.
- Digital Transformation: With the growth of digital and delivery services, CEO Chris Kempczinski noted that customer flows and experiences are changing, prompting collaboration with franchisees to envision the future of restaurants.
- Competitor Response: Following McDonald's announcement, rival Burger King stated it will maintain self-serve soda machines to meet customer demand for refills, highlighting the competitive landscape in the fast-food sector.
- New Beverage Strategy: McDonald's launched six specialty drinks in late April as part of a new beverage strategy aimed at attracting customers and enhancing brand appeal, despite the potential impact on customer choice due to the removal of self-serve options.
See More
Market Dynamics and Company Performance Analysis
- Calm Market Conditions: Stock futures are stable this morning with oil prices down approximately 5%, following another record close for the S&P 500, driven by hopes for an end to the Iran war, although the market is inching towards overbought territory according to momentum indicators.
- Arm Holdings Earnings Report: Despite a strong earnings report from Arm Holdings showcasing robust data center CPU business, shares fell 8% this morning due to insufficient supply of new CPUs to raise revenue forecasts, even though they are more power-efficient than AMD and Intel's x86 processors.
- Fortinet Share Surge: Fortinet's stock surged 15% after delivering outstanding quarterly results, prompting BTIG analysts to upgrade the stock from hold to buy, with Fortinet commanding 50% of the global firewall market, boosting the performance of other cybersecurity stocks as well.
- Kraft Heinz Recovery Plan: Although Kraft Heinz has struggled for years, CEO Steve Cahillane is investing in brands like Kraft mac and cheese to restore the company's former glory, aiming to win back consumers and drive growth, reflecting confidence in future prospects.
See More
McDonald's Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Significant Revenue Growth: McDonald's reported Q1 revenue of $6.52 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, surpassing the market expectation of $6.47 billion, highlighting strong performance in key markets, particularly the U.K., Germany, and Australia.
- Earnings Per Share Exceeds Expectations: The adjusted earnings per share reached $2.83, exceeding analyst estimates of $2.74, reflecting the company's competitive edge in value and affordability, which further boosts investor confidence.
- Global Sales Growth: Global comparable sales grew by 3.8%, with positive growth in both the U.S. and international markets, indicating McDonald's continued expansion of market share, especially in markets demonstrating strong execution.
- Restructuring Costs Impact: The company incurred a pre-tax restructuring charge of $47 million during the quarter as part of its internal effort to modernize workflows; nevertheless, the overall performance remained robust, demonstrating the company's commitment to operational optimization.
See More
MCDONALD'S CEO REPORTS MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT DID NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT Q1 RESULTS, BUT OPERATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE - CONFERENCE CALL
Impact of Middle East Conflict: McDonald's CEO stated that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East did not materially affect the company's Q1 results.
Operating Environment Concerns: Despite the stable financial results, the CEO noted that the operating environment remains volatile.
See More
McDonald's Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Global Sales Growth: McDonald's achieved a 6% increase in global system-wide sales and a 3.8% rise in comparable sales in Q1 2026, indicating sustained market share gains in key markets, thereby enhancing its competitive position in the fast-food industry.
- U.S. Market Strategy: CEO Kempczinski emphasized that McDonald's will not be outdone on value and affordability, introducing a revamped McValue menu featuring items under $3 and a $4 breakfast meal deal, aimed at attracting more consumers and boosting sales.
- Profitability and Cost Control: The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.83, including a $0.13 benefit from foreign currency translation, with an adjusted operating margin of 46%; however, U.S. company-operated margins were unsatisfactory, prompting management to reassess the optimal balance between franchisee and company ownership.
- Future Outlook and Risks: Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 financial targets, expecting foreign currency to positively impact EPS by $0.20 to $0.30, but warned of slightly negative sales in April and potential increased cost inflation risks, particularly in the volatile Middle Eastern operating environment.
See More
Mixed Stock Performance as Software Stocks Rebound Amid Market Rotation
- Market Volatility: Stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors assessed whether the U.S. and Iran were nearing an agreement to end the war, leading to a notable rotation within the market where hardware stocks faced pressure while software stocks rebounded due to strong earnings reports.
- Software Stock Rebound: Strong results from cybersecurity firm Fortinet boosted software stocks, benefiting companies like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks; despite Jim Cramer's concerns about potential AI disruptions to cybersecurity vendors, investor confidence appears to be recovering.
- Partnership Impact: Jim highlighted the partnership between Nvidia and Corning as a potentially significant shift for AI infrastructure, with Corning planning to increase optical fiber connectivity manufacturing capacity tenfold; although Corning's shares dipped slightly on Thursday, they had surged 12% the previous day due to the Nvidia deal.
- Rapid Stock Review: Stocks mentioned at the end of the video included McDonald's, Shake Shack, DoorDash, Fortinet, and Datadog; Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust holds positions in Arm, Corning, CrowdStrike, Nvidia, and Palo Alto, and subscribers receive trade alerts before any transactions.
See More
McDonald's Phasing Out Self-Serve Soda Fountains
- Soda Machine Transition: McDonald's plans to phase out self-serve soda fountains by 2032, moving them behind the counter to enhance customer and crew experiences, although free refills will still be at the discretion of franchisees.
- Digital Transformation: With the growth of digital and delivery services, CEO Chris Kempczinski noted that customer flows and experiences are changing, prompting collaboration with franchisees to envision the future of restaurants.
- Competitor Response: Following McDonald's announcement, rival Burger King stated it will maintain self-serve soda machines to meet customer demand for refills, highlighting the competitive landscape in the fast-food sector.
- New Beverage Strategy: McDonald's launched six specialty drinks in late April as part of a new beverage strategy aimed at attracting customers and enhancing brand appeal, despite the potential impact on customer choice due to the removal of self-serve options.
See More
Market Dynamics and Company Performance Analysis
- Calm Market Conditions: Stock futures are stable this morning with oil prices down approximately 5%, following another record close for the S&P 500, driven by hopes for an end to the Iran war, although the market is inching towards overbought territory according to momentum indicators.
- Arm Holdings Earnings Report: Despite a strong earnings report from Arm Holdings showcasing robust data center CPU business, shares fell 8% this morning due to insufficient supply of new CPUs to raise revenue forecasts, even though they are more power-efficient than AMD and Intel's x86 processors.
- Fortinet Share Surge: Fortinet's stock surged 15% after delivering outstanding quarterly results, prompting BTIG analysts to upgrade the stock from hold to buy, with Fortinet commanding 50% of the global firewall market, boosting the performance of other cybersecurity stocks as well.
- Kraft Heinz Recovery Plan: Although Kraft Heinz has struggled for years, CEO Steve Cahillane is investing in brands like Kraft mac and cheese to restore the company's former glory, aiming to win back consumers and drive growth, reflecting confidence in future prospects.
See More
