The Rise of the Chili's Economy: Understanding the Casual-Dining Surge
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 18 2025
0mins
Should l Buy BLMN?
Source: WSJ
Current Mood in the Restaurant Industry: Executives in the restaurant sector are expressing caution, indicating a divide in their outlooks.
Financial Performance of Fast-Casual Chains: Cava and Chipotle have reported earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior.
Impact on Customer Demographics: McDonald's is experiencing significant declines in traffic from its lowest-income customers, while Wendy's notes that budget-conscious diners are reducing their spending.
Overall Consumer Sentiment: There is a growing sensitivity to prices among customers, affecting sales and traffic across various restaurant chains.
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Analyst Views on BLMN
Wall Street analysts forecast BLMN stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 6.470
Low
6.00
Averages
8.00
High
11.00
Current: 6.470
Low
6.00
Averages
8.00
High
11.00
About BLMN
Bloomin Brands, Inc. is a casual dining restaurant company. It has four founder-inspired brands: Outback Steakhouse, Carrabbas Italian Grill, BonefishGrill, and Flemings Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar. The Company’s segment includes U.S. and International Franchise. Outback Steakhouse is a casual steakhouse restaurant concept focused on steaks, bold flavors and Australian decor. Carrabbas Italian Grill offers authentic Italian cuisine passed down from its founder's family recipes. Bonefish Grill specializes in fish from around the world, hand-cut in-house every day, savory wood-grilled specialties, and locally created seasonal partner selection dishes. Flemings Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar is a contemporary interpretation of the classic American steakhouse, boasting culinary mastery, signature style and unrivaled attentive service to create memorable dining experiences for guests. The Company owns, operates, and franchises over 1,450 restaurants in 46 states, Guam and 12 countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strategic Restructuring: Starbucks has implemented a $1 billion overhaul strategy aimed at improving operational efficiency; although the decision to close its high-end Seattle Roastery has raised eyebrows, this move is intended to stabilize domestic sales and enhance market competitiveness.
- Industry Contraction: Several iconic chains have reduced their footprints in 2025, with Denny's closing 70 to 90 units and Papa John's shutting down 173 locations, indicating an overall industry shrinkage that may lead to further market share concentration.
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- Starbucks Restructuring: Starbucks announced plans to close approximately 500 North American locations as part of a $1 billion restructuring effort aimed at reversing sales declines in its largest market, including the closure of its upscale Reserve Roastery in Seattle.
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- Restructuring Plan: Starbucks announced plans to close approximately 500 North American locations as part of a $1 billion restructuring initiative aimed at addressing declining sales in the U.S. market, with the goal of improving overall business performance.
- Market Response: Under CEO Brian Niccol's leadership, Starbucks aims to reverse the sales slump, despite pressures from reduced consumer spending, and is expected to share more details during the upcoming investor day.
- Industry Trends: In 2025, the restaurant industry faces widespread challenges, with many chains opting to close underperforming locations, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards home dining and deals, resulting in an overall decline in traffic.
- Competitive Pressure: Amid intensified competition in the fast-food sector, brands like Wendy's and Denny's have also announced closures of hundreds of locations, highlighting the industry's operational difficulties and the need for a reassessment of market demand.
See More
Restaurant Leaders Share Strategies for Attracting Customers During Tough Times
Rising Costs: Increasing bills and higher menu prices are making dining out less appealing.
Job Market Concerns: A shaky job market is prompting people to reconsider their spending habits, including eating out.
Leftovers Advantage: Eating dinner at home allows for the benefit of banking leftovers, which can save money.
Home Dining Benefits: The combination of financial pressures and the convenience of home-cooked meals is encouraging more people to dine at home.
See More
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Bloomin' Brands Insider Purchase: Eric C. Christel, CFO of Bloomin' Brands, purchased 150,000 shares at $6.38 each for a total of $957,000, also marking his first buy in the past year, despite the stock trading down about 1.5% on Friday.
See More
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- Investor Preference: During turbulent and uncertain market conditions, many investors are turning to high dividend-yielding stocks, which typically possess high free cash flows and reward shareholders with substantial dividends, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Analyst Ratings: Analysts have provided accurate ratings for three high-yielding stocks in the consumer discretionary sector, including Bloomin’ Brands Inc (NASDAQ:BLMN), Vail Resorts Inc (NYSE:MTN), and Wendy’s Co (NASDAQ:WEN), indicating strong market confidence in these companies.
- Market Trends: As economic uncertainty intensifies, investors are increasingly focusing on companies that can provide stable cash flows and dividends, a trend that may drive demand and prices for these stocks higher.
- Dividend Appeal: High dividend stocks not only offer investors a stable income source but may also provide a relatively safe investment option during market volatility, attracting more investors seeking to preserve capital.
See More
Starbucks Closes 500 Stores Amid $1 Billion Overhaul Strategy
- Increased Market Pressure: In 2025, the restaurant industry faced severe challenges, prompting Starbucks to close approximately 500 North American cafes in response to declining sales, reflecting a trend of consumers shifting towards home cooking, which is expected to impact the company's short-term revenue.
- Strategic Restructuring: Starbucks has implemented a $1 billion overhaul strategy aimed at improving operational efficiency; although the decision to close its high-end Seattle Roastery has raised eyebrows, this move is intended to stabilize domestic sales and enhance market competitiveness.
- Industry Contraction: Several iconic chains have reduced their footprints in 2025, with Denny's closing 70 to 90 units and Papa John's shutting down 173 locations, indicating an overall industry shrinkage that may lead to further market share concentration.
- Investor Intervention: Following its store closures, Denny's was acquired by private investors for $620 million, aimed at stabilizing operations, reflecting investor confidence and expectations for recovery in the restaurant sector.
See More
Starbucks Plans to Close 500 North American Locations as Part of $1 Billion Restructuring
- Industry Decline: According to Black Box Intelligence, U.S. restaurant traffic fell every month in 2025 except for July, indicating that inflation-weary consumers are dining out less, prompting many chains to close underperforming locations.
- Starbucks Restructuring: Starbucks announced plans to close approximately 500 North American locations as part of a $1 billion restructuring effort aimed at reversing sales declines in its largest market, including the closure of its upscale Reserve Roastery in Seattle.
- Wendy's Strategic Review: Wendy's announced a strategic review in 2025, planning to close hundreds of underperforming U.S. locations as part of its
See More
Starbucks Plans to Close 500 Locations with $1 Billion Restructuring Investment
- Restructuring Plan: Starbucks announced plans to close approximately 500 North American locations as part of a $1 billion restructuring initiative aimed at addressing declining sales in the U.S. market, with the goal of improving overall business performance.
- Market Response: Under CEO Brian Niccol's leadership, Starbucks aims to reverse the sales slump, despite pressures from reduced consumer spending, and is expected to share more details during the upcoming investor day.
- Industry Trends: In 2025, the restaurant industry faces widespread challenges, with many chains opting to close underperforming locations, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards home dining and deals, resulting in an overall decline in traffic.
- Competitive Pressure: Amid intensified competition in the fast-food sector, brands like Wendy's and Denny's have also announced closures of hundreds of locations, highlighting the industry's operational difficulties and the need for a reassessment of market demand.
See More
Restaurant Leaders Share Strategies for Attracting Customers During Tough Times
Rising Costs: Increasing bills and higher menu prices are making dining out less appealing.
Job Market Concerns: A shaky job market is prompting people to reconsider their spending habits, including eating out.
Leftovers Advantage: Eating dinner at home allows for the benefit of banking leftovers, which can save money.
Home Dining Benefits: The combination of financial pressures and the convenience of home-cooked meals is encouraging more people to dine at home.
See More
Insider Buying Update for Friday, November 14: LUNR and BLMN
Intuitive Machines Insider Purchase: Michael Blitzer, Director of Intuitive Machines, bought 241,080 shares of LUNR for $2.19M, marking his first purchase in a year, while the stock rose about 5.7% on Friday.
Bloomin' Brands Insider Purchase: Eric C. Christel, CFO of Bloomin' Brands, purchased 150,000 shares at $6.38 each for a total of $957,000, also marking his first buy in the past year, despite the stock trading down about 1.5% on Friday.
See More
