Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison Anticipates a Recovery in the Housing Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 04 2025
0mins
Source: Barron's
- Market Conditions: The home improvement market is currently experiencing a slump.
- CEO's Confidence: Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison remains optimistic despite the market challenges.
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Analyst Views on HD
Wall Street analysts forecast HD stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 350.650
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
Current: 350.650
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
About HD
The Home Depot, Inc. is a home improvement retailer. The Company is engaged in retail operations and sells an assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products, decor products, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products, in stores and online. It also provides a number of services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. It operates four lines of business: roofing and building products; interior and construction products; landscape, and pool. It operates a total of 2,361 retail stores and over 1,280 SRS locations across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces and Mexico. Its store averages 105,000 square feet of indoor retail space, interconnected with an e-commerce business that offers products for the do-it-yourself (DIY) customer, professional contractors, and the installation business for the Do-It-For-Me customer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Market Dynamics and Company News Overview
- Mixed Market Performance: Dow futures are up 130 points while Nasdaq is set for a sharp decline due to chip stock sell-offs, and S&P futures are modestly lower, indicating a complex market sentiment that could impact investor confidence.
- SpaceX Joins Nasdaq 100: SpaceX officially enters the Nasdaq 100 index, expected to attract billions in passive flows, with at least 18 buy ratings from analysts, reflecting strong market confidence in its future growth potential following its IPO.
- Samsung Stock Pullback: Samsung Electronics shares fell 7% in South Korea despite a staggering 1,800% increase in second-quarter operating profit and doubled sales, indicating potential profit-taking by investors concerned about the sustainability of its AI spending boom.
- Walmart's Price Reduction Strategy: Walmart has lowered prices on beef and other summer grilling essentials, which, combined with falling gas prices, helps alleviate inflationary pressures; despite an 18% drop in shares since mid-May, this move is seen as an investment opportunity that could attract more consumers.
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- Quality Stock Selection: This ETF tracks an index of high-yield U.S. dividend stocks, currently holding 75 stocks with an annual dividend yield of 2.9%, nearly three times that of the S&P 500, indicating its strong competitive edge in dividend investing.
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- High-Yield Stock Advantage: The iShares Core High Dividend ETF has surged over 15% this year, primarily benefiting from its higher exposure to high-yield energy stocks, particularly ExxonMobil and Chevron, which have risen 14% and 11% respectively, thus driving the fund's overall performance.
- Healthcare Stock Contribution: The ETF has also gained from its significant allocation to healthcare stocks, notably AbbVie and Merck, with AbbVie shares up over 14% and Merck up over 23%, indicating that high-quality dividend stocks can deliver substantial total returns.
- Dividend Yield Comparison: The iShares Core High Dividend ETF currently boasts a dividend yield of 2.9%, nearly three times the S&P 500's yield of 1.1%, highlighting its advantage in providing stable cash flow, which attracts income-seeking investors.
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Home Improvement Showdown: Comparing Home Depot and Lowe's Growth Strategies
- Performance Comparison: For FY 2025, Home Depot reported sales of $164.7 billion, reflecting a 3.2% increase with a net income of $14.8 billion, showcasing its strong position in the professional market, while Lowe's generated $86.3 billion in revenue, up 3.1%, with a net income of $6.7 billion, indicating solid growth in the DIY segment.
- Acquisition and Expansion Strategies: Home Depot has enhanced its service capabilities for professional contractors by acquiring companies like SRS and GMS, aiming to become a one-stop shop for large renovation projects; Lowe's has expanded its branch network through the acquisitions of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group to better serve both homeowners and commercial clients.
- Risks and Challenges: Home Depot faces significant risks related to cybersecurity and regulatory scrutiny over data privacy, with recent legal challenges potentially impacting its reputation; Lowe's is sensitive to macroeconomic factors affecting the housing market, and it also faces operational risks during the integration of large acquisitions and its multi-year technology transformation.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts project Home Depot's sales to grow nearly 4% and net income to increase just over 1% in FY 2026, while Lowe's is expected to see sales growth of about 8% and net income growth of around 2.5%, with initiatives to enhance contractor customer experience through AI tools that reduce order fulfillment time from days to hours.
See More
Analysis of Competition Among Home Improvement Giants
- Market Leadership: Home Depot achieved sales of $164.7 billion in FY 2025, reflecting a 3.2% year-over-year growth with a net income of $14.8 billion, underscoring its strong influence in the professional contractor market, which is expected to continue attracting high-value clients.
- Acquisition Expansion Strategy: Lowe's expanded its branch network through the acquisitions of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group, generating revenue of approximately $86.3 billion in FY 2025, a 3.1% increase, indicating its accelerating penetration into the professional market while balancing the needs of homeowners and commercial clients.
- Technological Innovation Drive: Lowe's introduced an AI-assisted tool that is expected to reduce pro order fulfillment time from days to hours, with first-quarter sales rising by 10%, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing customer experience and attracting contractor clients.
- Financial Health Comparison: Home Depot's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 5.1x, while Lowe's is at -4.5x; despite Lowe's being more attractive on a price-to-earnings and price-to-sales basis, the differences in their financial structures may influence investor choices.
See More
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- Earnings Preview: The earnings season officially kicks off from July 13 to 17, with major companies like Levi Strauss, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines reporting, prompting market focus on consumer spending and inflationary pressures impacting performance.
- Oil Prices and Consumer Spending: Despite a 27% drop in U.S. WTI crude prices over the past month, consumer gas prices have only decreased by 10.5%, which may influence purchasing decisions, particularly for brands like Levi's.
- Service Sector Data Release: This week will see the release of the S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Services PMI, aimed at providing timely insights into business activity in the U.S. services sector, aiding in the assessment of economic health.
- Semiconductor Industry Volatility: The semiconductor sector faced severe selling last week, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF and VanEck Semiconductor ETF nearing their 50-day moving averages, and the market will watch for whether buyers will support a rebound in this sector.
See More
Market Dynamics and Company News Overview
- Mixed Market Performance: Dow futures are up 130 points while Nasdaq is set for a sharp decline due to chip stock sell-offs, and S&P futures are modestly lower, indicating a complex market sentiment that could impact investor confidence.
- SpaceX Joins Nasdaq 100: SpaceX officially enters the Nasdaq 100 index, expected to attract billions in passive flows, with at least 18 buy ratings from analysts, reflecting strong market confidence in its future growth potential following its IPO.
- Samsung Stock Pullback: Samsung Electronics shares fell 7% in South Korea despite a staggering 1,800% increase in second-quarter operating profit and doubled sales, indicating potential profit-taking by investors concerned about the sustainability of its AI spending boom.
- Walmart's Price Reduction Strategy: Walmart has lowered prices on beef and other summer grilling essentials, which, combined with falling gas prices, helps alleviate inflationary pressures; despite an 18% drop in shares since mid-May, this move is seen as an investment opportunity that could attract more consumers.
See More
iShares Core High Dividend ETF Outperforms S&P 500
- Market Outperformance: The iShares Core High Dividend ETF has risen over 15% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 9% increase, highlighting its investment advantage in high-yield stocks and attracting more income-seeking investors.
- Quality Stock Selection: This ETF tracks an index of high-yield U.S. dividend stocks, currently holding 75 stocks with an annual dividend yield of 2.9%, nearly three times that of the S&P 500, indicating its strong competitive edge in dividend investing.
- Sector Drivers: The fund's high exposure to energy stocks, particularly ExxonMobil and Chevron, which are up 14% and 11% respectively, has significantly boosted its performance, while strong gains from healthcare stocks like AbbVie and Merck have also contributed to its growth.
- Growth Potential: Since its inception in 2011, the iShares Core High Dividend ETF has delivered over 10% annualized returns, and with its focus on high-quality dividend stocks, it is expected to continue providing stable income and growth opportunities for investors.
See More
iShares Core High Dividend ETF Surges Over 15% Year-to-Date
- High-Yield Stock Advantage: The iShares Core High Dividend ETF has surged over 15% this year, primarily benefiting from its higher exposure to high-yield energy stocks, particularly ExxonMobil and Chevron, which have risen 14% and 11% respectively, thus driving the fund's overall performance.
- Healthcare Stock Contribution: The ETF has also gained from its significant allocation to healthcare stocks, notably AbbVie and Merck, with AbbVie shares up over 14% and Merck up over 23%, indicating that high-quality dividend stocks can deliver substantial total returns.
- Dividend Yield Comparison: The iShares Core High Dividend ETF currently boasts a dividend yield of 2.9%, nearly three times the S&P 500's yield of 1.1%, highlighting its advantage in providing stable cash flow, which attracts income-seeking investors.
- Strong Long-Term Performance: Since its inception in 2011, the ETF has delivered over 10% annualized returns over the past one, three, and five years, indicating success in its investment strategy focused on high-quality dividend stocks, and it is expected to continue providing strong returns in the future.
See More
Home Improvement Showdown: Comparing Home Depot and Lowe's Growth Strategies
- Performance Comparison: For FY 2025, Home Depot reported sales of $164.7 billion, reflecting a 3.2% increase with a net income of $14.8 billion, showcasing its strong position in the professional market, while Lowe's generated $86.3 billion in revenue, up 3.1%, with a net income of $6.7 billion, indicating solid growth in the DIY segment.
- Acquisition and Expansion Strategies: Home Depot has enhanced its service capabilities for professional contractors by acquiring companies like SRS and GMS, aiming to become a one-stop shop for large renovation projects; Lowe's has expanded its branch network through the acquisitions of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group to better serve both homeowners and commercial clients.
- Risks and Challenges: Home Depot faces significant risks related to cybersecurity and regulatory scrutiny over data privacy, with recent legal challenges potentially impacting its reputation; Lowe's is sensitive to macroeconomic factors affecting the housing market, and it also faces operational risks during the integration of large acquisitions and its multi-year technology transformation.
- Future Growth Expectations: Analysts project Home Depot's sales to grow nearly 4% and net income to increase just over 1% in FY 2026, while Lowe's is expected to see sales growth of about 8% and net income growth of around 2.5%, with initiatives to enhance contractor customer experience through AI tools that reduce order fulfillment time from days to hours.
See More
Analysis of Competition Among Home Improvement Giants
- Market Leadership: Home Depot achieved sales of $164.7 billion in FY 2025, reflecting a 3.2% year-over-year growth with a net income of $14.8 billion, underscoring its strong influence in the professional contractor market, which is expected to continue attracting high-value clients.
- Acquisition Expansion Strategy: Lowe's expanded its branch network through the acquisitions of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group, generating revenue of approximately $86.3 billion in FY 2025, a 3.1% increase, indicating its accelerating penetration into the professional market while balancing the needs of homeowners and commercial clients.
- Technological Innovation Drive: Lowe's introduced an AI-assisted tool that is expected to reduce pro order fulfillment time from days to hours, with first-quarter sales rising by 10%, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing customer experience and attracting contractor clients.
- Financial Health Comparison: Home Depot's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 5.1x, while Lowe's is at -4.5x; despite Lowe's being more attractive on a price-to-earnings and price-to-sales basis, the differences in their financial structures may influence investor choices.
See More
Upcoming Earnings Season and Economic Data Insights
- Earnings Preview: The earnings season officially kicks off from July 13 to 17, with major companies like Levi Strauss, PepsiCo, and Delta Air Lines reporting, prompting market focus on consumer spending and inflationary pressures impacting performance.
- Oil Prices and Consumer Spending: Despite a 27% drop in U.S. WTI crude prices over the past month, consumer gas prices have only decreased by 10.5%, which may influence purchasing decisions, particularly for brands like Levi's.
- Service Sector Data Release: This week will see the release of the S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Services PMI, aimed at providing timely insights into business activity in the U.S. services sector, aiding in the assessment of economic health.
- Semiconductor Industry Volatility: The semiconductor sector faced severe selling last week, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF and VanEck Semiconductor ETF nearing their 50-day moving averages, and the market will watch for whether buyers will support a rebound in this sector.
See More
