Summer oil rally possible but market may look past it: Macquarie By Investing.com
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 15 2024
0mins
Source: Investing.com
- Macquarie's View on Summer Crude Oil Rally: Macquarie analysts acknowledge the possibility of a summer crude oil rally but caution that the market might not be swayed in the long term.
- Structurally Bearish Outlook: Despite short-term upward pressure, Macquarie maintains a structurally bearish view on crude oil prices due to surplus concerns in the second half of 2024 and throughout 2025.
- Negative Drivers Identified: Concerns include OPEC+ compliance with production quotas, continued growth in non-OPEC oil production (especially from the US), and potential slower ramp-up of new production sources like Dangote Refinery and Dos Bocas facilities.
- Geopolitical Risks vs. Demand Boost: While geopolitical risks and a hot summer could boost demand, Macquarie suggests that these factors may be outweighed by negative drivers in the market.
- China's Impact on Oil Demand: Macquarie notes that China's oil demand, particularly for diesel, is becoming less sensitive to economic growth, which could limit upside potential for oil prices.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
