Restaurant Brands International Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy QSR?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Beat: Restaurant Brands International (QSR) reported a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.96, exceeding expectations by $0.01, indicating stable profitability and increased market confidence.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $2.47 billion, a 7.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $60 million, demonstrating strong growth momentum in a competitive fast-food market.
- Future Spending Plans: The company anticipates segment G&A (excluding RH) for 2026 to be between $600 million and $620 million, with RH segment G&A around $100 million, reflecting a clear investment strategy for future growth.
- Long-Term Growth Outlook: Restaurant Brands expects comparable sales growth of over 3% and organic adjusted operating income growth of over 8% from 2024 to 2028, aiming for over 5% net restaurant growth by the end of its algorithm period, showcasing confidence in future market opportunities.
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Analyst Views on QSR
Wall Street analysts forecast QSR stock price to rise
15 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 66.350
Low
64.00
Averages
78.53
High
86.00
Current: 66.350
Low
64.00
Averages
78.53
High
86.00
About QSR
Restaurant Brands International Inc. is a quick-service restaurant company. It franchises and operates quick-service restaurants serving coffee and other beverage and food products. Its segments include Tim Hortons (TH), Burger King (BK), Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLK), Firehouse Subs (FHS), International (INTL) and Restaurant Holdings. Tim Hortons is a coffee and baked goods restaurant chain in North America. Tim Hortons restaurants also serve a variety of hot and cold specialty beverages alongside breakfast, lunch and dinner offerings, including sandwiches, wraps, flatbread pizzas, and more. Burger King is a quick-service hamburger restaurant chain and is Home of the Whopper. Burger King restaurants feature flame-grilled hamburgers, chicken and other specialty sandwiches. Popeyes is a quick-service chicken concept, and delivers guests a Louisiana-style menu featuring fried bone-in chicken, chicken sandwiches, chicken tenders, wings, fried shrimp and regional items.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Restaurant Brands International Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, Restaurant Brands International achieved an 8.3% organic AOI growth and a 10.7% increase in adjusted EPS to $3.69 per share, demonstrating robust execution and market adaptability, which further solidifies its competitive position in the restaurant industry.
- Expansion in China: The company plans to increase Burger King locations in China to at least 2,500 by 2030, indicating a strong commitment to the Chinese market and a long-term investment strategy that is expected to significantly enhance brand market share in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Leadership Restructuring: Popeyes appointed Peter Perdue as President for the U.S. and Canada, aiming to improve operational consistency and performance, reflecting the company's focus on brand management and proactive response to market challenges.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company expects to achieve an 8% AOI growth for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, and despite pressures from rising beef costs, management is confident in future profitability and shareholder returns through enhanced operations and capital allocation.
See More
Restaurant Brands Reports Q4 Highlights
- Revenue Growth: Total revenue for 2025 reached $9.434 billion, up 13.4% from $8.406 billion last year, indicating robust market performance despite challenges in profitability.
- Earnings Performance: The adjusted EPS for Q4 was 96 cents, exceeding the 95 cents estimate, although GAAP EPS fell from 79 cents last year to 60 cents, reflecting volatility in the company's earnings capacity.
- Cash Flow and Debt: Operating cash flow for 2025 was $1.714 billion with free cash flow at $1.449 billion, while total debt stood at $13.669 billion, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 4.2x, indicating financial structure pressures.
- Dividends and Outlook: The company declared a Q1 2026 dividend of $0.65 per share, up from $0.62 in the previous quarter, with a 2026 annual dividend target of $2.60 per share, demonstrating confidence in future cash flows.
See More
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- Restaurant Brands Challenges: Despite reporting revenue and profit beats, Restaurant Brands' shares fell 6%, primarily due to rising costs, including beef, which pressured profits, reflecting the dual challenges of intensified industry competition and cost pressures.
- Cognex Stock Surge: Cognex shares jumped over 37% after reporting adjusted earnings and revenue beats for the fourth quarter, along with optimistic guidance for the current quarter, showcasing significant advancements in AI-enabled industrial machine vision technology.
- Equinix Exceeds Guidance: Equinix shares rose 12% after projecting adjusted EBITDA of $5.141 billion to $5.221 billion by 2026, surpassing analyst expectations, demonstrating strong growth potential in the digital infrastructure sector.
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Restaurant Brands Increases Quarterly Dividend by 4.8%
- Dividend Increase: Restaurant Brands International has declared a quarterly dividend increase from $0.62 to $0.65 per share, reflecting a 4.8% growth that underscores the company's stability and profitability in the current market environment.
- Yield Performance: This adjustment results in a forward yield of 3.68%, providing investors with a relatively attractive return and enhancing the company's appeal among shareholders.
- Payment Schedule: The new dividend will be payable on April 2, with a record date of March 19 and an ex-dividend date also set for March 19, ensuring shareholders receive their earnings promptly.
- Market Response: Despite a cautious outlook in the restaurant sector, Restaurant Brands International demonstrates resilience and attractiveness in a competitive market through consistent dividend growth and solid financial performance.
See More
U.S. Labor Market Shows Strong Growth with 130,000 Jobs Added
- Job Growth Exceeds Expectations: The U.S. labor market added 130,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, significantly surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 55,000, indicating a robust economic recovery, although most growth was concentrated in healthcare sectors.
- Unemployment Rate Decline: The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in January, the lowest since August, reflecting improvements in the labor market, despite revisions showing that payroll gains from April 2024 to March 2025 were 898,000 lower than initially reported.
- Surge in Tariff Revenue: The U.S. generated $30 billion in tariff revenue in January, a more than 300% year-over-year increase, which helps alleviate federal budget deficit pressures; however, the House passed a resolution to repeal Trump's tariffs, likely facing a Senate veto.
- Strong Fast-Food Performance: McDonald's reported nearly a 7% increase in domestic same-store sales in Q4, exceeding Wall Street expectations, with the CEO noting that focusing on customer needs and value has improved traffic and brand competitiveness, despite some franchisee discontent.
See More
McDonald's Becomes World's Largest Sock Seller
- Labor Market Performance: The U.S. labor market added 130,000 nonfarm jobs last month, significantly exceeding the Dow Jones estimate of 55,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, the lowest since August, indicating potential economic recovery; however, most job growth was concentrated in healthcare, highlighting ongoing structural issues in the economy.
- Tariff Policy Shift: The House voted 219-211 to overturn Trump's tariffs on Canada, reflecting internal Republican divisions on trade policy, which could influence future legislative actions despite the likelihood of a Senate veto, signaling potential shifts in U.S. trade relations.
- McDonald's Earnings Beat: McDonald's fourth-quarter results surpassed Wall Street expectations with nearly a 7% increase in domestic same-store sales, demonstrating the effectiveness of its value-focused strategy, although this approach has caused discontent among some franchisees, potentially impacting brand perception.
- Surge in Tech Debt: Global tech and AI-related debt issuance is projected to reach $990 billion in 2026, up from $710 billion in 2025, with major players like Oracle and Alphabet leading the charge; however, investor concerns about a potential AI bubble could dampen market enthusiasm and affect future funding strategies.
See More
Restaurant Brands International Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, Restaurant Brands International achieved an 8.3% organic AOI growth and a 10.7% increase in adjusted EPS to $3.69 per share, demonstrating robust execution and market adaptability, which further solidifies its competitive position in the restaurant industry.
- Expansion in China: The company plans to increase Burger King locations in China to at least 2,500 by 2030, indicating a strong commitment to the Chinese market and a long-term investment strategy that is expected to significantly enhance brand market share in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Leadership Restructuring: Popeyes appointed Peter Perdue as President for the U.S. and Canada, aiming to improve operational consistency and performance, reflecting the company's focus on brand management and proactive response to market challenges.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: The company expects to achieve an 8% AOI growth for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, and despite pressures from rising beef costs, management is confident in future profitability and shareholder returns through enhanced operations and capital allocation.
See More
Restaurant Brands Reports Q4 Highlights
- Revenue Growth: Total revenue for 2025 reached $9.434 billion, up 13.4% from $8.406 billion last year, indicating robust market performance despite challenges in profitability.
- Earnings Performance: The adjusted EPS for Q4 was 96 cents, exceeding the 95 cents estimate, although GAAP EPS fell from 79 cents last year to 60 cents, reflecting volatility in the company's earnings capacity.
- Cash Flow and Debt: Operating cash flow for 2025 was $1.714 billion with free cash flow at $1.449 billion, while total debt stood at $13.669 billion, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 4.2x, indicating financial structure pressures.
- Dividends and Outlook: The company declared a Q1 2026 dividend of $0.65 per share, up from $0.62 in the previous quarter, with a 2026 annual dividend target of $2.60 per share, demonstrating confidence in future cash flows.
See More
Crocs Shares Surge 21% on Strong Earnings Guidance
- Crocs Strong Guidance: Crocs shares surged 21% after the company projected adjusted earnings between $2.67 and $2.77 per share for the current quarter, exceeding the market expectation of $2.52, indicating resilience and growth potential in the current economic climate.
- Restaurant Brands Challenges: Despite reporting revenue and profit beats, Restaurant Brands' shares fell 6%, primarily due to rising costs, including beef, which pressured profits, reflecting the dual challenges of intensified industry competition and cost pressures.
- Cognex Stock Surge: Cognex shares jumped over 37% after reporting adjusted earnings and revenue beats for the fourth quarter, along with optimistic guidance for the current quarter, showcasing significant advancements in AI-enabled industrial machine vision technology.
- Equinix Exceeds Guidance: Equinix shares rose 12% after projecting adjusted EBITDA of $5.141 billion to $5.221 billion by 2026, surpassing analyst expectations, demonstrating strong growth potential in the digital infrastructure sector.
See More
Restaurant Brands Increases Quarterly Dividend by 4.8%
- Dividend Increase: Restaurant Brands International has declared a quarterly dividend increase from $0.62 to $0.65 per share, reflecting a 4.8% growth that underscores the company's stability and profitability in the current market environment.
- Yield Performance: This adjustment results in a forward yield of 3.68%, providing investors with a relatively attractive return and enhancing the company's appeal among shareholders.
- Payment Schedule: The new dividend will be payable on April 2, with a record date of March 19 and an ex-dividend date also set for March 19, ensuring shareholders receive their earnings promptly.
- Market Response: Despite a cautious outlook in the restaurant sector, Restaurant Brands International demonstrates resilience and attractiveness in a competitive market through consistent dividend growth and solid financial performance.
See More
U.S. Labor Market Shows Strong Growth with 130,000 Jobs Added
- Job Growth Exceeds Expectations: The U.S. labor market added 130,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, significantly surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 55,000, indicating a robust economic recovery, although most growth was concentrated in healthcare sectors.
- Unemployment Rate Decline: The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in January, the lowest since August, reflecting improvements in the labor market, despite revisions showing that payroll gains from April 2024 to March 2025 were 898,000 lower than initially reported.
- Surge in Tariff Revenue: The U.S. generated $30 billion in tariff revenue in January, a more than 300% year-over-year increase, which helps alleviate federal budget deficit pressures; however, the House passed a resolution to repeal Trump's tariffs, likely facing a Senate veto.
- Strong Fast-Food Performance: McDonald's reported nearly a 7% increase in domestic same-store sales in Q4, exceeding Wall Street expectations, with the CEO noting that focusing on customer needs and value has improved traffic and brand competitiveness, despite some franchisee discontent.
See More
McDonald's Becomes World's Largest Sock Seller
- Labor Market Performance: The U.S. labor market added 130,000 nonfarm jobs last month, significantly exceeding the Dow Jones estimate of 55,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, the lowest since August, indicating potential economic recovery; however, most job growth was concentrated in healthcare, highlighting ongoing structural issues in the economy.
- Tariff Policy Shift: The House voted 219-211 to overturn Trump's tariffs on Canada, reflecting internal Republican divisions on trade policy, which could influence future legislative actions despite the likelihood of a Senate veto, signaling potential shifts in U.S. trade relations.
- McDonald's Earnings Beat: McDonald's fourth-quarter results surpassed Wall Street expectations with nearly a 7% increase in domestic same-store sales, demonstrating the effectiveness of its value-focused strategy, although this approach has caused discontent among some franchisees, potentially impacting brand perception.
- Surge in Tech Debt: Global tech and AI-related debt issuance is projected to reach $990 billion in 2026, up from $710 billion in 2025, with major players like Oracle and Alphabet leading the charge; however, investor concerns about a potential AI bubble could dampen market enthusiasm and affect future funding strategies.
See More
