Progressive Insurance Shares Down 30% Amid Mixed Performance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 15 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Stock Performance Decline: Progressive's shares have dropped 30% over the past 12 months, reaching a two-year low, reflecting market concerns about its future performance despite a strong showing in 2024.
- Significant Premium Growth: In the face of market pressures, Progressive's total premiums increased by 12% year-over-year, with underwriting margins widening from 11.2% to a record 12.6%, demonstrating the company's resilience in a competitive auto insurance market.
- Increase in Policies: The number of policies in force rose significantly from 35 million to 38.6 million, with market share growing from 15.6% to 17.2%, indicating the company's strengthening competitive position within the industry.
- Dividend Payment Structure: With a dividend yield exceeding 7%, Progressive's modest quarterly payments are overshadowed by a substantial annual payment of $13.50, reflecting the volatility and uncertainty of its profitability.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy PGR?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on PGR
Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 194.510
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
Current: 194.510
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
About PGR
The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company's segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Its special lines of products include recreational vehicles, such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft. The Company's Personal Lines products are sold through both the agency and direct channels. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Its reinsurance activity includes both transactions which are regulated and those that are non-regulated. It offers Snapshot through hardware-based and/or mobile-app versions in all states, other than California.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Progressive's Telematics Advantage in Auto Insurance
- Data-Driven Growth: Progressive leverages nearly two decades of driving data through telematics to match risk with rates, achieving profitable growth in its auto insurance business, with personal line payments increasing by 11% year-over-year in Q1 2026, adding $1.3 billion and demonstrating strong market performance.
- Telematics Market Leadership: As the first insurer to adopt telematics, Progressive's Snapshot program boasted 3 million customers by 2015, enhancing its competitive edge in the insurance market, particularly against emerging insurtech startups.
- Advantage of Low Loss Ratio: With a combined ratio of 86.4% in Q1 2026, significantly below the 96% target, Progressive's performance reflects effective risk management capabilities, providing sustained profitability and market competitiveness.
- Returns from Long-Term Investment: Progressive's nearly two-decade investment in telematics lays the groundwork for future growth, and despite market concerns about its performance this year, its dominance in auto insurance will continue to drive its outperformance against the market.
See More
Progressive Insurance's Competitive Edge in Auto Insurance
- Technological Leadership: Progressive's telematics program, launched in 2008, has kept it ahead in the insurance industry, achieving a 57% awareness rate by 2013 and reaching 3 million customers by 2015, showcasing its strong influence in the auto insurance market.
- Data-Driven Pricing: By accumulating extensive driving data, Progressive can accurately match risk to premiums, with personal line payments increasing 11% year-over-year in Q1 2026, adding $1.3 billion and further solidifying its market position.
- Competitive Advantage: The new Snapshot model's rollout in 14 states covers 44% of net premiums written over the past 12 months, improving risk selection and achieving the highest conversion rates in over 20 years, demonstrating its robust competitiveness in the market.
- Low Loss Ratio: With a combined ratio of 86.4% in Q1 2026, well below the 96% target, Progressive's performance reflects effective risk management and lays a solid foundation for future growth.
See More
The Choice in Insurance Market 2026
- Conservative vs. Innovative: Progressive reported nearly $87.6 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 16.3% increase year-over-year, with a net income of $11.3 billion, showcasing its strong stability in the property and casualty market; however, reliance on Uber's commercial lines adds customer concentration risk.
- Tech-Driven Challenger: Lemonade generated approximately $737.9 million in revenue for FY 2025, growing at about 40.2% year-over-year, despite a net loss of roughly $165.5 million, it has attracted 3.1 million customers through AI and automation, highlighting its potential in the younger consumer segment.
- Risks and Opportunities: Progressive faces intense competition from large insurers and potential losses from natural disasters, while Lemonade's reliance on algorithm accuracy poses risks, as any technical failures could impact pricing and underwriting, increasing operational risks.
- Significant Valuation Differences: Progressive's forward P/E ratio stands at 12.1x, appealing to value-oriented investors, while Lemonade trades at a high 122.4x, reflecting expectations for rapid growth, prompting investors to choose based on their risk appetite.
See More
Insurance Market Competition: Choosing Between Progressive and Lemonade
- Market Competition Landscape: Progressive dominates the property and casualty insurance market, reporting nearly $87.6 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 16.3% increase year-over-year, with a net income of approximately $11.3 billion, showcasing its strong profitability and market stability.
- Tech-Driven Challenger: Lemonade captures younger demographics with its AI-driven model, generating about $737.9 million in revenue for FY 2025, a 40.2% year-over-year increase, despite a net loss of roughly $165.5 million, highlighting the contradiction between its high growth potential and unstable profitability.
- Financial Health Comparison: As of December 2025, Progressive's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 0.2x and its current ratio was nearly 0.6x, indicating a conservative debt strategy; in contrast, Lemonade's debt-to-equity ratio was 0.3x with a current ratio of 1.5x, reflecting its strong short-term liquidity position.
- Investor Choice: For risk-averse investors, Progressive's stable cash flow and profitability are more attractive, while those seeking high growth may consider Lemonade, despite its inconsistent profitability.
See More
Chubb Announces $7.5 Billion Share Buyback Program
- Buyback Program Launch: Chubb announced a $7.5 billion share repurchase program following its annual meeting, aiming to enhance earnings per share by reducing the share count, although this strategy may harm shareholder value in the long term.
- Industry Trend Review: Travelers authorized a $5 billion buyback, raising its total repurchase capacity to $7 billion, indicating that insurers are revisiting buyback strategies from past downturns to tackle stagnating revenue growth and declining cash flows.
- Market Reaction Analysis: While buybacks may boost EPS in the short term, Bank of America analysts noted that insurers are repurchasing at prices above book value, which could dilute long-term capital, especially as Chubb, Hartford, and W.R. Berkley trade above their 10-year averages.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: Travelers indicated that its financial health and underwriting results support both significant buybacks and dividends, while Chubb's CEO committed to increasing buybacks when stock prices are below intrinsic value, emphasizing the need for investors to focus on management's capital allocation capabilities in a softening insurance market.
See More
Berkshire Hathaway Stock Performance Analysis
- Stock Performance Comparison: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has declined by 3.2% over the past three months, underperforming the industry’s 2.4% drop and the financial sector’s 0.8% decrease, indicating relative weakness in the market despite the S&P 500 gaining 8.9% in the same period.
- Valuation Analysis: Currently, BRK.B trades at a price-to-book ratio of 1.44, which is above the industry average of 1.38 but below the three-year median of 1.52, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued, potentially affecting investor buying decisions.
- Core Insurance Business: The insurance segment accounts for nearly a quarter of Berkshire's total revenues and serves as a major engine for long-term value creation due to disciplined underwriting practices and a strong profitability track record, demonstrating stability across economic cycles.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: As of the end of 2025, Berkshire's cash and U.S. Treasury holdings exceeded $370 billion, providing substantial liquidity for acquisitions, while its insurance float reached $176.9 billion, supporting long-term shareholder value creation with low-cost capital.
See More
Progressive's Telematics Advantage in Auto Insurance
- Data-Driven Growth: Progressive leverages nearly two decades of driving data through telematics to match risk with rates, achieving profitable growth in its auto insurance business, with personal line payments increasing by 11% year-over-year in Q1 2026, adding $1.3 billion and demonstrating strong market performance.
- Telematics Market Leadership: As the first insurer to adopt telematics, Progressive's Snapshot program boasted 3 million customers by 2015, enhancing its competitive edge in the insurance market, particularly against emerging insurtech startups.
- Advantage of Low Loss Ratio: With a combined ratio of 86.4% in Q1 2026, significantly below the 96% target, Progressive's performance reflects effective risk management capabilities, providing sustained profitability and market competitiveness.
- Returns from Long-Term Investment: Progressive's nearly two-decade investment in telematics lays the groundwork for future growth, and despite market concerns about its performance this year, its dominance in auto insurance will continue to drive its outperformance against the market.
See More
Progressive Insurance's Competitive Edge in Auto Insurance
- Technological Leadership: Progressive's telematics program, launched in 2008, has kept it ahead in the insurance industry, achieving a 57% awareness rate by 2013 and reaching 3 million customers by 2015, showcasing its strong influence in the auto insurance market.
- Data-Driven Pricing: By accumulating extensive driving data, Progressive can accurately match risk to premiums, with personal line payments increasing 11% year-over-year in Q1 2026, adding $1.3 billion and further solidifying its market position.
- Competitive Advantage: The new Snapshot model's rollout in 14 states covers 44% of net premiums written over the past 12 months, improving risk selection and achieving the highest conversion rates in over 20 years, demonstrating its robust competitiveness in the market.
- Low Loss Ratio: With a combined ratio of 86.4% in Q1 2026, well below the 96% target, Progressive's performance reflects effective risk management and lays a solid foundation for future growth.
See More
The Choice in Insurance Market 2026
- Conservative vs. Innovative: Progressive reported nearly $87.6 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 16.3% increase year-over-year, with a net income of $11.3 billion, showcasing its strong stability in the property and casualty market; however, reliance on Uber's commercial lines adds customer concentration risk.
- Tech-Driven Challenger: Lemonade generated approximately $737.9 million in revenue for FY 2025, growing at about 40.2% year-over-year, despite a net loss of roughly $165.5 million, it has attracted 3.1 million customers through AI and automation, highlighting its potential in the younger consumer segment.
- Risks and Opportunities: Progressive faces intense competition from large insurers and potential losses from natural disasters, while Lemonade's reliance on algorithm accuracy poses risks, as any technical failures could impact pricing and underwriting, increasing operational risks.
- Significant Valuation Differences: Progressive's forward P/E ratio stands at 12.1x, appealing to value-oriented investors, while Lemonade trades at a high 122.4x, reflecting expectations for rapid growth, prompting investors to choose based on their risk appetite.
See More
Insurance Market Competition: Choosing Between Progressive and Lemonade
- Market Competition Landscape: Progressive dominates the property and casualty insurance market, reporting nearly $87.6 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 16.3% increase year-over-year, with a net income of approximately $11.3 billion, showcasing its strong profitability and market stability.
- Tech-Driven Challenger: Lemonade captures younger demographics with its AI-driven model, generating about $737.9 million in revenue for FY 2025, a 40.2% year-over-year increase, despite a net loss of roughly $165.5 million, highlighting the contradiction between its high growth potential and unstable profitability.
- Financial Health Comparison: As of December 2025, Progressive's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 0.2x and its current ratio was nearly 0.6x, indicating a conservative debt strategy; in contrast, Lemonade's debt-to-equity ratio was 0.3x with a current ratio of 1.5x, reflecting its strong short-term liquidity position.
- Investor Choice: For risk-averse investors, Progressive's stable cash flow and profitability are more attractive, while those seeking high growth may consider Lemonade, despite its inconsistent profitability.
See More
Chubb Announces $7.5 Billion Share Buyback Program
- Buyback Program Launch: Chubb announced a $7.5 billion share repurchase program following its annual meeting, aiming to enhance earnings per share by reducing the share count, although this strategy may harm shareholder value in the long term.
- Industry Trend Review: Travelers authorized a $5 billion buyback, raising its total repurchase capacity to $7 billion, indicating that insurers are revisiting buyback strategies from past downturns to tackle stagnating revenue growth and declining cash flows.
- Market Reaction Analysis: While buybacks may boost EPS in the short term, Bank of America analysts noted that insurers are repurchasing at prices above book value, which could dilute long-term capital, especially as Chubb, Hartford, and W.R. Berkley trade above their 10-year averages.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: Travelers indicated that its financial health and underwriting results support both significant buybacks and dividends, while Chubb's CEO committed to increasing buybacks when stock prices are below intrinsic value, emphasizing the need for investors to focus on management's capital allocation capabilities in a softening insurance market.
See More
Berkshire Hathaway Stock Performance Analysis
- Stock Performance Comparison: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has declined by 3.2% over the past three months, underperforming the industry’s 2.4% drop and the financial sector’s 0.8% decrease, indicating relative weakness in the market despite the S&P 500 gaining 8.9% in the same period.
- Valuation Analysis: Currently, BRK.B trades at a price-to-book ratio of 1.44, which is above the industry average of 1.38 but below the three-year median of 1.52, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued, potentially affecting investor buying decisions.
- Core Insurance Business: The insurance segment accounts for nearly a quarter of Berkshire's total revenues and serves as a major engine for long-term value creation due to disciplined underwriting practices and a strong profitability track record, demonstrating stability across economic cycles.
- Capital Allocation Strategy: As of the end of 2025, Berkshire's cash and U.S. Treasury holdings exceeded $370 billion, providing substantial liquidity for acquisitions, while its insurance float reached $176.9 billion, supporting long-term shareholder value creation with low-cost capital.
See More
