Pagaya Technologies: The Rise of an AI Value Stock
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Valuation Advantage: Pagaya Technologies' stock trades around $13 with a P/E ratio of 11 and a forward P/E of just 4, indicating its potential as a value stock, while its five-year PEG ratio stands at a mere 0.03, highlighting significant growth potential.
- Revenue Growth: In Q1, Pagaya generated $317 million in revenue, a 10% year-over-year increase, with 94% of this revenue coming from loan placement fees, showcasing its strong performance in the non-prime loan market.
- Network Expansion: The company's network volume rose by 9% in Q1 to $2.6 billion, driven by growth in auto loans and point-of-sale loans, particularly through its partnership with Sezzle, which is expected to further boost its business growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Pagaya anticipates network volume reaching between $11.45 billion and $13 billion by 2026, with revenue forecasts of $1.4 billion to $1.575 billion this year, and net income expected to rise by 67%, reflecting strong growth prospects that have garnered significant attention from Wall Street analysts.
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Analyst Views on PGY
Wall Street analysts forecast PGY stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 13.960
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
Current: 13.960
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
About PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd is an Israel-based company. It is primarily engaged in financial technology (FinTech) industry. The Company develops data science, machine learning and AI technology (Artificial Intelligence) analytics, enabling accurate, real-time customer credit assessments. Company's customers are lending companies that, by connecting to the AI Pagaya network, have the opportunity to discover and approve new customers that meet their credit criteria. Thanks to the Company's solutions, its customers gains a customer without undue risk. Pagaya Technologies Ltd delivers technology that provides loan assistance such as personal, car and credit card loans. The Company serves its clients all over the world.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Pagaya Technologies: The Rise of an AI Value Stock
- Valuation Advantage: Pagaya Technologies' stock trades around $13 with a P/E ratio of 11 and a forward P/E of just 4, indicating its potential as a value stock, while its five-year PEG ratio stands at a mere 0.03, highlighting significant growth potential.
- Revenue Growth: In Q1, Pagaya generated $317 million in revenue, a 10% year-over-year increase, with 94% of this revenue coming from loan placement fees, showcasing its strong performance in the non-prime loan market.
- Network Expansion: The company's network volume rose by 9% in Q1 to $2.6 billion, driven by growth in auto loans and point-of-sale loans, particularly through its partnership with Sezzle, which is expected to further boost its business growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Pagaya anticipates network volume reaching between $11.45 billion and $13 billion by 2026, with revenue forecasts of $1.4 billion to $1.575 billion this year, and net income expected to rise by 67%, reflecting strong growth prospects that have garnered significant attention from Wall Street analysts.
See More
Upstart and Pagaya Compete in AI Lending
- Upstart's Market Performance: Upstart achieved approximately $1.1 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 58.9% increase year-over-year, with a net income of $53.6 million, demonstrating rapid expansion and improved profitability in the AI lending market, thereby enhancing its competitive position in fintech.
- Pagaya's Financial Health: Pagaya generated around $1.3 billion in revenue for FY 2025, reflecting a 25.6% growth from the previous year, with a net income of $81.4 million and a net margin of 6.5%, marking a successful transition from early investment to a mature operating model, increasing its market appeal.
- Risk Analysis: Upstart faces risks from macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates that may dampen loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and the complexities of capital acquisition, which could impact its business stability and market share.
- Valuation Comparison: As of December 2025, Upstart's forward P/E ratio stands at 13.1x and P/S ratio at 2.7x, while Pagaya's forward P/E is 9.7x and P/S ratio is 0.9x, indicating that Pagaya appears more attractive in terms of valuation, potentially offering better long-term returns for investors.
See More
Upstart vs. Pagaya: AI Lending Competition Analysis
- Revenue Growth Comparison: Upstart's revenue reached approximately $1.1 billion in FY 2025, reflecting a 58.9% increase, while Pagaya generated about $1.3 billion, marking a 25.6% growth, indicating differing growth trajectories and market acceptance in the AI lending space.
- Profitability Analysis: Upstart reported a net income of nearly $53.6 million, showcasing its ability to enhance profitability during expansion, whereas Pagaya achieved a net income of approximately $81.4 million with a net margin of 6.5%, indicating a transition from early investment to a mature operating model.
- Financial Health Status: As of December 2025, Upstart's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 2.3x with a current ratio of 3.0, reflecting its short-term debt repayment capability; in contrast, Pagaya's debt-to-equity ratio was 1.9x with a current ratio of 5.6, suggesting greater financial flexibility.
- Market Risk Assessment: Upstart faces risks from high interest rates that may reduce loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and capital costs, with both companies' market performance closely tied to economic conditions, necessitating cautious evaluation by investors.
See More
Pagaya Appoints New Chief Commercial Officer
- Leadership Expansion: Pagaya Technologies has appointed Terry O'Neil as Chief Commercial Officer, tasked with driving the company's partnerships and growth functions, which is expected to accelerate the establishment of new relationships and enhance market competitiveness.
- Strategic Growth Focus: O'Neil will concentrate on deepening product adoption to increase the impact of Pagaya's offerings in the U.S. consumer lending market, ensuring the company maintains its position as a preferred technology partner for major lenders.
- Extensive Industry Experience: With over 20 years of strategic expertise in consumer financial services, O'Neil has held several key leadership roles at Citi, where he managed P&L and advanced payment capabilities, bringing valuable industry insights to Pagaya.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: O'Neil expressed that Pagaya's growth story is undeniable, highlighting the company's unique ability to leverage vast data to create more opportunities for both lenders and consumers, indicating strong growth potential ahead.
See More
Upstart Applies for Bank Charter, Transitioning to Lender Model
- Transition to Banking Model: Upstart has applied for a bank charter, intending to shift from a platform to a lending institution, a significant change that will enable it to lower funding costs and access deposits as a new revenue stream, thereby enhancing its position in a competitive market.
- Funding Cost Advantage: As a bank, Upstart will be able to obtain cheaper funds through deposits rather than relying on wholesale loan resales, which will provide greater operational flexibility and improve profitability in future operations.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Although Upstart's transformation may present new opportunities, the digital banking space is highly competitive, with companies like SoFi and Chime rapidly gaining traction, necessitating Upstart to find a unique market position to stand out.
- Poor Stock Performance: Upstart's stock has fallen 33% this year, and despite management's confidence in the transition, the market's lukewarm response to its latest quarterly earnings report indicates that its road to recovery remains long and complicated.
See More
Upstart Holdings Seeks Bank Charter to Transform Business Model
- Bank Charter Application: Upstart Holdings has recently applied for a bank charter to lower funding costs and expand its business, aiming to become 'the first bank built from the ground up on AI,' which could transform its business model and boost its stock price.
- Loan Holding Strategy: Although Upstart initially did not hold any debt, it has started holding some loans on its balance sheet and has entered into an agreement with Fortress Investment Group to purchase $1.25 billion in consumer loans over the next 15 months, raising concerns in the market.
- Diversified Funding Sources: By obtaining a bank charter, Upstart will gain access to new funding sources through deposits, reducing reliance on wholesale loan resales, allowing it to secure funds at lower rates and hold loans longer to accrue interest income.
- Competition and Challenges: In an increasingly crowded digital banking landscape, Upstart faces pressure from companies like SoFi and Nu Holdings; while its transformation may help lower funding costs, it must also navigate stringent government regulations and market competition challenges.
See More
Pagaya Technologies: The Rise of an AI Value Stock
- Valuation Advantage: Pagaya Technologies' stock trades around $13 with a P/E ratio of 11 and a forward P/E of just 4, indicating its potential as a value stock, while its five-year PEG ratio stands at a mere 0.03, highlighting significant growth potential.
- Revenue Growth: In Q1, Pagaya generated $317 million in revenue, a 10% year-over-year increase, with 94% of this revenue coming from loan placement fees, showcasing its strong performance in the non-prime loan market.
- Network Expansion: The company's network volume rose by 9% in Q1 to $2.6 billion, driven by growth in auto loans and point-of-sale loans, particularly through its partnership with Sezzle, which is expected to further boost its business growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Pagaya anticipates network volume reaching between $11.45 billion and $13 billion by 2026, with revenue forecasts of $1.4 billion to $1.575 billion this year, and net income expected to rise by 67%, reflecting strong growth prospects that have garnered significant attention from Wall Street analysts.
See More
Upstart and Pagaya Compete in AI Lending
- Upstart's Market Performance: Upstart achieved approximately $1.1 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 58.9% increase year-over-year, with a net income of $53.6 million, demonstrating rapid expansion and improved profitability in the AI lending market, thereby enhancing its competitive position in fintech.
- Pagaya's Financial Health: Pagaya generated around $1.3 billion in revenue for FY 2025, reflecting a 25.6% growth from the previous year, with a net income of $81.4 million and a net margin of 6.5%, marking a successful transition from early investment to a mature operating model, increasing its market appeal.
- Risk Analysis: Upstart faces risks from macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates that may dampen loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and the complexities of capital acquisition, which could impact its business stability and market share.
- Valuation Comparison: As of December 2025, Upstart's forward P/E ratio stands at 13.1x and P/S ratio at 2.7x, while Pagaya's forward P/E is 9.7x and P/S ratio is 0.9x, indicating that Pagaya appears more attractive in terms of valuation, potentially offering better long-term returns for investors.
See More
Upstart vs. Pagaya: AI Lending Competition Analysis
- Revenue Growth Comparison: Upstart's revenue reached approximately $1.1 billion in FY 2025, reflecting a 58.9% increase, while Pagaya generated about $1.3 billion, marking a 25.6% growth, indicating differing growth trajectories and market acceptance in the AI lending space.
- Profitability Analysis: Upstart reported a net income of nearly $53.6 million, showcasing its ability to enhance profitability during expansion, whereas Pagaya achieved a net income of approximately $81.4 million with a net margin of 6.5%, indicating a transition from early investment to a mature operating model.
- Financial Health Status: As of December 2025, Upstart's debt-to-equity ratio stood at 2.3x with a current ratio of 3.0, reflecting its short-term debt repayment capability; in contrast, Pagaya's debt-to-equity ratio was 1.9x with a current ratio of 5.6, suggesting greater financial flexibility.
- Market Risk Assessment: Upstart faces risks from high interest rates that may reduce loan demand, while Pagaya is sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate market and capital costs, with both companies' market performance closely tied to economic conditions, necessitating cautious evaluation by investors.
See More
Pagaya Appoints New Chief Commercial Officer
- Leadership Expansion: Pagaya Technologies has appointed Terry O'Neil as Chief Commercial Officer, tasked with driving the company's partnerships and growth functions, which is expected to accelerate the establishment of new relationships and enhance market competitiveness.
- Strategic Growth Focus: O'Neil will concentrate on deepening product adoption to increase the impact of Pagaya's offerings in the U.S. consumer lending market, ensuring the company maintains its position as a preferred technology partner for major lenders.
- Extensive Industry Experience: With over 20 years of strategic expertise in consumer financial services, O'Neil has held several key leadership roles at Citi, where he managed P&L and advanced payment capabilities, bringing valuable industry insights to Pagaya.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: O'Neil expressed that Pagaya's growth story is undeniable, highlighting the company's unique ability to leverage vast data to create more opportunities for both lenders and consumers, indicating strong growth potential ahead.
See More
Upstart Applies for Bank Charter, Transitioning to Lender Model
- Transition to Banking Model: Upstart has applied for a bank charter, intending to shift from a platform to a lending institution, a significant change that will enable it to lower funding costs and access deposits as a new revenue stream, thereby enhancing its position in a competitive market.
- Funding Cost Advantage: As a bank, Upstart will be able to obtain cheaper funds through deposits rather than relying on wholesale loan resales, which will provide greater operational flexibility and improve profitability in future operations.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Although Upstart's transformation may present new opportunities, the digital banking space is highly competitive, with companies like SoFi and Chime rapidly gaining traction, necessitating Upstart to find a unique market position to stand out.
- Poor Stock Performance: Upstart's stock has fallen 33% this year, and despite management's confidence in the transition, the market's lukewarm response to its latest quarterly earnings report indicates that its road to recovery remains long and complicated.
See More
Upstart Holdings Seeks Bank Charter to Transform Business Model
- Bank Charter Application: Upstart Holdings has recently applied for a bank charter to lower funding costs and expand its business, aiming to become 'the first bank built from the ground up on AI,' which could transform its business model and boost its stock price.
- Loan Holding Strategy: Although Upstart initially did not hold any debt, it has started holding some loans on its balance sheet and has entered into an agreement with Fortress Investment Group to purchase $1.25 billion in consumer loans over the next 15 months, raising concerns in the market.
- Diversified Funding Sources: By obtaining a bank charter, Upstart will gain access to new funding sources through deposits, reducing reliance on wholesale loan resales, allowing it to secure funds at lower rates and hold loans longer to accrue interest income.
- Competition and Challenges: In an increasingly crowded digital banking landscape, Upstart faces pressure from companies like SoFi and Nu Holdings; while its transformation may help lower funding costs, it must also navigate stringent government regulations and market competition challenges.
See More
