Pagaya Earnings Report Analysis and Stock Crash Reasons
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 11 2026
0mins
Should l Buy PGY?
Source: Fool
- Earnings Report Shortfall: Pagaya's recent earnings report revealed revenues falling short of expectations, leading to a 4.24% drop in stock price on February 9, 2026, indicating market concerns about future growth prospects.
- Severe Market Reaction: The disappointing earnings have shaken investor confidence, resulting in a significant decline in stock price, which raises questions about the company's profitability and competitive position, potentially affecting its future financing capabilities.
- Industry Updates: The video mentions recent updates regarding Microsoft and Reddit, although details are sparse, suggesting that developments in these companies could impact Pagaya, particularly amid intensifying competition in the tech and social media sectors.
- Investor Focus: The video encourages viewers to monitor Pagaya's future developments, highlighting the market's keen interest in the company's strategic adjustments, which may influence investor decisions and overall market sentiment.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy PGY?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on PGY
Wall Street analysts forecast PGY stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 11.650
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
Current: 11.650
Low
35.00
Averages
43.33
High
54.00
About PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd is an Israel-based company. It is primarily engaged in financial technology (FinTech) industry. The Company develops data science, machine learning and AI technology (Artificial Intelligence) analytics, enabling accurate, real-time customer credit assessments. Company's customers are lending companies that, by connecting to the AI Pagaya network, have the opportunity to discover and approve new customers that meet their credit criteria. Thanks to the Company's solutions, its customers gains a customer without undue risk. Pagaya Technologies Ltd delivers technology that provides loan assistance such as personal, car and credit card loans. The Company serves its clients all over the world.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Pagaya Technologies Stock Drops 6.21% Amid Market Decline
- Stock Performance: Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) closed at $11.17, down 6.21% from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500's 1.67% decline, indicating market concerns about its future prospects.
- Monthly Review: Over the past month, Pagaya's stock fell 4.03%, outperforming the Finance sector's 8% loss and the S&P 500's 6.15% drop, yet still reflecting cautious investor sentiment regarding its profitability.
- Earnings Expectations: The upcoming earnings report is projected to show an EPS of $0.49, a 28.99% decline year-over-year, while revenue is expected to reach $320.85 million, a 10.64% increase, indicating potential for revenue growth but challenges in profitability.
- Analyst Ratings: Pagaya currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), reflecting analysts' pessimistic outlook on its near-term business trends, despite its industry ranking being in the top 41% of over 250 industries, suggesting relative competitive strength.
See More
Pagaya Closes First Auto Resecuritization Transaction
- Impressive Transaction Size: Pagaya successfully closed its first auto resecuritization transaction, RPM-2026-R1, raising approximately $450 million, marking a significant advancement in the company's capital markets strategy and expected to attract more investor interest in its auto loan ecosystem.
- Strong Investor Participation: The transaction attracted 17 unique investors, demonstrating robust demand for seasoned collateral, which further solidifies Pagaya's position in the financial ecosystem and lays a foundation for future financing activities.
- Product Diversification: By providing access to a pool of diversified auto assets with 24 months of seasoning, Pagaya offers investors a
See More
Three Undervalued Tech Stocks with Growth Potential
- Clearwater Analytics Growth: Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) saw a 72% revenue surge in Q4 2025 to $217.5 million, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing 77% to $841 million, indicating strong growth potential in the investment management sector.
- AI-Driven Efficiency: The launch of CWAN GenAI has led to clients reporting 90% less manual work and 80% faster reporting cycles, significantly enhancing client efficiency and satisfaction through automated reconciliation and portfolio analysis.
- Karooooo's Subscription Model: Karooooo reported a 22% increase in subscription revenue in Q3 fiscal 2026, reaching $298 million in ARR, with net subscriber additions of 111,478, showcasing robust growth and high customer retention in the connected vehicle platform market.
- Pagaya's Profitability: Pagaya achieved $1.3 billion in revenue for 2025, with adjusted EBITDA rising 76% to $371 million, marking its first GAAP net income of $80 million, and projecting net income of $100 million to $150 million for 2026, demonstrating the sustainability of its capital-light, fee-driven business model.
See More
Three Undervalued Tech Stocks with Growth Potential
- Clearwater Analytics Growth Surge: Clearwater Analytics reported a 72% revenue increase in Q4 2025, reaching $217.5 million, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) up 77% to $841 million, showcasing its robust growth potential in investment management, particularly through AI applications that reduce manual work by 90% and reporting cycles by 80%.
- Karooooo Subscription Revenue Rise: In Q3 FY 2026, Karooooo's subscription revenue grew by 22%, with ARR reaching $298 million and net subscriber additions hitting a record 111,478, demonstrating strong performance in the connected vehicle platform market, where 98% of revenue comes from predictable subscription models, ensuring high margins and stable cash flow.
- Pagaya Technologies Achieves Profitability: Pagaya Technologies reached $1.3 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 26% increase, with adjusted EBITDA of $371 million and a GAAP net income of $80 million, marking its first profitable year, with guidance for net income of $100 million to $150 million in 2026, indicating rapid expansion and market acceptance of its AI-driven lending network.
- Significant Market Potential: All three companies exhibit strong market potential in their respective fields, with Clearwater's acquisition proposal, Karooooo's sustained growth, and Pagaya's profitability indicating their important roles in the future tech market, attracting investor interest.
See More
Analysis of AI-Driven Potential Companies
- Weave Communications Growth: Weave Communications achieved $239 million in revenue in 2025, a 17% increase, and expanded its market size to $22 billion through new product launches, indicating strong growth potential in the healthcare software sector.
- Evolv Technologies' Technical Edge: Evolv Technologies saw a 57% surge in Q3 2025 revenue to $42.9 million, with full-year guidance of $142 million to $145 million, establishing an irreplicable data advantage in security through its AI weapons detection systems.
- Pagaya Technologies' Market Positioning: Pagaya posted $1.3 billion in revenue in 2025, up 26%, and expects GAAP net income of $100 million to $150 million in 2026, showcasing its robust data infrastructure capabilities beyond traditional credit scoring.
- Strategic Importance of AI Technology: These companies leverage AI technology not only to enhance operational efficiency but also to create new market opportunities in their respective fields, reflecting the significance and potential of AI in addressing real-world problems.
See More
Weave Communications Introduces AI Receptionists to Healthcare
- AI Receptionist Innovation: Weave Communications is launching a new AI receptionist capable of automating patient calls, appointments, and routine inquiries, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency and reduce labor costs.
- Market Expansion: In 2025, Weave achieved $239 million in revenue, a 17% increase, and expanded its addressable market to $22 billion through new product launches, indicating strong market demand and growth potential.
- Security Technology Breakthrough: Evolv Technologies' AI weapons detection system saw a 57% revenue surge to $42.9 million in Q3 2025, with full-year revenue guidance of $142 million to $145 million, showcasing its technological edge in public safety.
- Credit Market Transformation: Pagaya posted $1.3 billion in revenue for 2025, up 26%, and expects GAAP net income of $100 million to $150 million in 2026, highlighting its unique value and growth potential within the traditional credit system.
See More
Pagaya Technologies Stock Drops 6.21% Amid Market Decline
- Stock Performance: Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) closed at $11.17, down 6.21% from the previous session, underperforming the S&P 500's 1.67% decline, indicating market concerns about its future prospects.
- Monthly Review: Over the past month, Pagaya's stock fell 4.03%, outperforming the Finance sector's 8% loss and the S&P 500's 6.15% drop, yet still reflecting cautious investor sentiment regarding its profitability.
- Earnings Expectations: The upcoming earnings report is projected to show an EPS of $0.49, a 28.99% decline year-over-year, while revenue is expected to reach $320.85 million, a 10.64% increase, indicating potential for revenue growth but challenges in profitability.
- Analyst Ratings: Pagaya currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), reflecting analysts' pessimistic outlook on its near-term business trends, despite its industry ranking being in the top 41% of over 250 industries, suggesting relative competitive strength.
See More
Pagaya Closes First Auto Resecuritization Transaction
- Impressive Transaction Size: Pagaya successfully closed its first auto resecuritization transaction, RPM-2026-R1, raising approximately $450 million, marking a significant advancement in the company's capital markets strategy and expected to attract more investor interest in its auto loan ecosystem.
- Strong Investor Participation: The transaction attracted 17 unique investors, demonstrating robust demand for seasoned collateral, which further solidifies Pagaya's position in the financial ecosystem and lays a foundation for future financing activities.
- Product Diversification: By providing access to a pool of diversified auto assets with 24 months of seasoning, Pagaya offers investors a
See More
Three Undervalued Tech Stocks with Growth Potential
- Clearwater Analytics Growth: Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) saw a 72% revenue surge in Q4 2025 to $217.5 million, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing 77% to $841 million, indicating strong growth potential in the investment management sector.
- AI-Driven Efficiency: The launch of CWAN GenAI has led to clients reporting 90% less manual work and 80% faster reporting cycles, significantly enhancing client efficiency and satisfaction through automated reconciliation and portfolio analysis.
- Karooooo's Subscription Model: Karooooo reported a 22% increase in subscription revenue in Q3 fiscal 2026, reaching $298 million in ARR, with net subscriber additions of 111,478, showcasing robust growth and high customer retention in the connected vehicle platform market.
- Pagaya's Profitability: Pagaya achieved $1.3 billion in revenue for 2025, with adjusted EBITDA rising 76% to $371 million, marking its first GAAP net income of $80 million, and projecting net income of $100 million to $150 million for 2026, demonstrating the sustainability of its capital-light, fee-driven business model.
See More
Three Undervalued Tech Stocks with Growth Potential
- Clearwater Analytics Growth Surge: Clearwater Analytics reported a 72% revenue increase in Q4 2025, reaching $217.5 million, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) up 77% to $841 million, showcasing its robust growth potential in investment management, particularly through AI applications that reduce manual work by 90% and reporting cycles by 80%.
- Karooooo Subscription Revenue Rise: In Q3 FY 2026, Karooooo's subscription revenue grew by 22%, with ARR reaching $298 million and net subscriber additions hitting a record 111,478, demonstrating strong performance in the connected vehicle platform market, where 98% of revenue comes from predictable subscription models, ensuring high margins and stable cash flow.
- Pagaya Technologies Achieves Profitability: Pagaya Technologies reached $1.3 billion in revenue for FY 2025, a 26% increase, with adjusted EBITDA of $371 million and a GAAP net income of $80 million, marking its first profitable year, with guidance for net income of $100 million to $150 million in 2026, indicating rapid expansion and market acceptance of its AI-driven lending network.
- Significant Market Potential: All three companies exhibit strong market potential in their respective fields, with Clearwater's acquisition proposal, Karooooo's sustained growth, and Pagaya's profitability indicating their important roles in the future tech market, attracting investor interest.
See More
Analysis of AI-Driven Potential Companies
- Weave Communications Growth: Weave Communications achieved $239 million in revenue in 2025, a 17% increase, and expanded its market size to $22 billion through new product launches, indicating strong growth potential in the healthcare software sector.
- Evolv Technologies' Technical Edge: Evolv Technologies saw a 57% surge in Q3 2025 revenue to $42.9 million, with full-year guidance of $142 million to $145 million, establishing an irreplicable data advantage in security through its AI weapons detection systems.
- Pagaya Technologies' Market Positioning: Pagaya posted $1.3 billion in revenue in 2025, up 26%, and expects GAAP net income of $100 million to $150 million in 2026, showcasing its robust data infrastructure capabilities beyond traditional credit scoring.
- Strategic Importance of AI Technology: These companies leverage AI technology not only to enhance operational efficiency but also to create new market opportunities in their respective fields, reflecting the significance and potential of AI in addressing real-world problems.
See More
Weave Communications Introduces AI Receptionists to Healthcare
- AI Receptionist Innovation: Weave Communications is launching a new AI receptionist capable of automating patient calls, appointments, and routine inquiries, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency and reduce labor costs.
- Market Expansion: In 2025, Weave achieved $239 million in revenue, a 17% increase, and expanded its addressable market to $22 billion through new product launches, indicating strong market demand and growth potential.
- Security Technology Breakthrough: Evolv Technologies' AI weapons detection system saw a 57% revenue surge to $42.9 million in Q3 2025, with full-year revenue guidance of $142 million to $145 million, showcasing its technological edge in public safety.
- Credit Market Transformation: Pagaya posted $1.3 billion in revenue for 2025, up 26%, and expects GAAP net income of $100 million to $150 million in 2026, highlighting its unique value and growth potential within the traditional credit system.
See More
