ONON Shares Decline Following Unexpected CEO Departure, Causing Division on Wall Street
Analyst Ratings: BTIG has maintained a 'Buy' rating on On Holding with a price target of $70, while analyst Cristina Fernandez has lowered her target from $65 to $60 but kept an 'Outperform' rating on the shares.
Leadership Change: CEO Martin Hoffmann stepped down, leading to a nearly 11% drop in shares, but management emphasized that this transition is not indicative of any business challenges.
New Co-CEOs: David Alleman and Caspar Coppetti will assume the roles of Co-CEOs while continuing as Executive Co-Chairmen of the Board, with co-founder Olivier Bernhard remaining focused on key performance initiatives.
Retail Sentiment: Retail sentiment around On Holding has been described as "extremely bullish," despite the company's shares falling 25% so far in 2026.
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- Earnings Report Announcement: On Holding AG is set to report its Q1 earnings on May 12, with analysts projecting earnings of 27 cents per share, indicating market focus on the company's profitability.
- CEO Change: The announcement of a CEO change may significantly impact the company's strategic direction and market confidence, particularly at this critical juncture ahead of the earnings report.
- Stock Price Decline: Ahead of the earnings report, On Holding AG's stock fell by 3.4%, reflecting investor concerns regarding the upcoming earnings and leadership transition, which could affect short-term market performance.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Investor reactions to the forthcoming earnings report and management changes may influence the company's future stock price trajectory, especially given the heightened sensitivity to earnings expectations in the current economic climate.
- Strong Sales Growth: On reported Q1 sales of 831.9 million Swiss francs, a 14.5% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of 823 million francs, indicating robust performance in the premium sneaker market.
- Improved Profitability Outlook: The company expects its gross profit margin to reach at least 64.5% in 2026, up from a previous forecast of 63%, demonstrating resilience amid an uncertain economic backdrop, despite a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam.
- Strong Performance in China: On's sales in China are growing at a high double-digit percentage, with apparel penetration reaching 30%, contrasting sharply with Nike's struggles in the region, highlighting the effectiveness of its brand strategy in attracting local consumers.
- Management Changes: On announced co-founders Coppetti and Allemann as co-CEOs, replacing Martin Hoffmann, and while management has changed, Coppetti emphasized that the company's strategy will remain focused on executing its premium market approach.
- Performance Exceeds Expectations: On reported first-quarter revenue of 831.9 million Swiss francs, a 14.5% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of 823 million francs, indicating strong market performance.
- Direct Sales Challenges: Despite robust overall growth, On's direct-to-consumer sales grew 16.4% to 322.3 million francs, falling short of the expected 326 million francs, highlighting challenges in a competitive market.
- Executive Change: Just before the quarter ended, On announced co-founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti would replace CEO Martin Hoffmann, who had led since 2021, signaling a continuation of the company's strategic vision.
- Profitability Outlook Raised: On expects its gross profit margin to reach at least 64.5% by 2026, up from a previous forecast of 63%, despite still accounting for a 20% tariff on imports, reflecting confidence in future profitability.
- Earnings Highlights: On Holding reported a Q1 GAAP EPS of CHF 0.31 and revenue of CHF 831.9 million, reflecting a 14.5% year-over-year growth, indicating strong market performance and growth potential.
- Sales Forecast: Net sales are expected to grow by at least 23% year-over-year, implying reported net sales of at least CHF 3.51 billion at current spot rates, showcasing the company's expansion capabilities in global markets.
- Gross Margin Improvement: The gross profit margin is expected to reach at least 64.5%, reflecting On Holding's operational strength and premium execution, while accounting for a 20% incremental tariff on products imported from Vietnam to the U.S.
- Channel Growth: Net sales through the direct-to-consumer channel increased by 16.4% to CHF 322.3 million, while wholesale channel net sales rose by 13.3% to CHF 509.6 million, demonstrating strong performance across different sales channels.
- Inflation Data Release: April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to cool to 0.6%, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to tick up slightly, indicating potential easing of inflation pressures but necessitating close monitoring of core metrics' impact on the market.
- On Holding Earnings Preview: On Holding is set to announce its Q1 results on Tuesday, with analysts expecting strong underlying demand to be offset by foreign exchange headwinds, which could negatively impact performance, prompting investors to pay attention to the company's strategic responses.
- Under Armour Earnings Outlook: Under Armour will also report quarterly results, with analysts predicting another sales decline as the company navigates its turnaround efforts, leading investors to closely monitor North American demand and the effectiveness of new product launches.
- Federal Reserve Commentary: Fresh commentary from several Fed presidents is expected on Tuesday, as markets seek clues regarding interest rate trajectories, coinciding with the Senate's vote on Kevin Warsh for Fed chair, with Jerome Powell's term ending on May 15.
- Tech Stocks Surge: Stocks like Lumentum, Coherent, Corning, Western Digital, Micron, Seagate, Qualcomm, and Qnity Electronics have all risen over 5%, indicating strong market confidence in the tech sector, which may drive overall market gains further.
- Energy Stocks Rise: Energy stocks increased alongside oil prices after President Trump indicated challenges to the Iran ceasefire, reflecting market sensitivity to energy price fluctuations that could impact consumer spending and overall economic growth.
- Consumer Confidence Dips: Consumer-related stocks, including TJX Companies and Nike, faced declines, highlighting investor anxiety over the potential economic pressures from rising energy prices, which could dampen consumer spending.
- CPI Report Expectations: The upcoming Consumer Price Index report is expected to show a significant month-over-month increase, with economists predicting a 0.59% rise from March, which may prompt government actions to alleviate economic burdens on consumers, further influencing market sentiment.









