Netflix Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: Key Metrics to Watch
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NFLX?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Ad Revenue Growth: Netflix's ad revenue is expected to reach $3 billion in 2026, accounting for nearly 6% of total revenue, a significant increase from $1.5 billion and 3% in 2025, indicating that ad sales could become a new growth engine for the company, positively impacting stock prices if performance exceeds expectations.
- Content Spending Plans: The company plans to spend $20 billion on content in 2026, which may pressure short-term profitability; however, a rich catalog of unique content will help attract and retain subscribers, enhancing competitive positioning in the long run.
- Free Cash Flow Forecast: Free cash flow is projected to be around $11 billion in 2026, providing essential funding for content production and potentially enabling shareholder-friendly actions like stock buybacks, which could bolster investor confidence if cash flow remains robust.
- Operating Margin Focus: Management's guidance for a 31.5% operating margin in 2026 is below analyst expectations, and if Q1 results indicate margins could be lower than forecasted, it may raise shareholder concerns; conversely, strong margins could drive stock prices higher.
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Analyst Views on NFLX
Wall Street analysts forecast NFLX stock price to rise
38 Analyst Rating
27 Buy
10 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 95.550
Low
92.00
Averages
114.18
High
150.00
Current: 95.550
Low
92.00
Averages
114.18
High
150.00
About NFLX
Netflix, Inc. is a provider of entertainment services. The Company acquires, licenses and produces content, including original programming. It provides paid memberships in over 190 countries offering television (TV) series, films and games across a variety of genres and languages. It allows members to play, pause and resume watching as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, and can change their plans at any time. The Company offers members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of Internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, TV set-top boxes and mobile devices. It is engaged in scaling its streaming service, such as introducing games and advertising on its service, as well as offering live programming. It is developing technology and utilizing third-party cloud computing, technology and other services. The Company is also engaged in scaling its own studio operations to produce original content.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- User Retention Strategy: Historically, Netflix has managed to retain most of its existing customers while attracting new ones despite price hikes, demonstrating its strong brand equity and extensive content library, a strategy that has proven effective during previous adjustments.
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- Global Accessibility: The event will be available for streaming globally on Netflix, while U.S. commercial establishments can access it via the EverPass platform, aiming to attract a broader audience and enhance user engagement.
- Traffic and Engagement Boost: EverPass Media CEO Alex Kaplan stated that the fight will provide reliable access for streaming customers, which is expected to significantly drive traffic and user engagement, thereby enhancing the platform's competitive edge.
- Strategic Implications: This collaboration not only highlights Netflix's ambitions in the sports content arena but also potentially paves the way for more live sports events in the future, further solidifying its leadership position in the streaming market.
See More
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- Weak Market Performance: Afternoon stock prices from April 1, 2026, indicate that stock markets are starting the year on a weak note, leading investors to feel cautious about future market trends, which could impact short-term investment decisions.
- Emerging Investment Opportunities: Despite the market weakness, this situation creates attractive buying opportunities for investors, particularly value investors who may seek undervalued stocks for long-term gains in a sluggish market environment.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Current market sentiment reflects concerns over economic recovery, prompting investors to potentially reassess their portfolios in the coming weeks to navigate potential market volatility and uncertainty.
- Need for Strategic Adjustments: In this market environment, investors must consider adjusting their investment strategies to quickly capitalize on opportunities when the stock market rebounds, ensuring maximum returns during future recoveries.
See More
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- Market Dip Opportunity: The stock market's sluggish start in 2026 presents an attractive buying opportunity for investors, particularly in the tech sector, which may draw increased capital inflows.
- AI and Trillionaires: A recent report suggests that AI could create the world's first trillionaire, indicating significant future potential and investment value in the tech industry, especially for companies linked to Nvidia and Intel.
- Investment Recommendations: The Motley Fool's analyst team has identified 10 top stocks for investors, notably excluding Microsoft, which reflects a shift in market preference towards other tech stocks that could impact Microsoft's investment appeal.
- Historical Returns Comparison: Stock Advisor boasts an average return of 926%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 185%, indicating that its recommended stocks have substantial long-term excess return potential.
See More
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- Illegal Price Increase Ruling: The Rome court ruled that Netflix unlawfully raised subscription prices for Italian users from 2017 to 2024, mandating refunds and price rollbacks, which impacts millions of subscribers and underscores the court's commitment to consumer rights.
- Significant Refund Amounts: The court found that unlawful increases totaled about €8 (
$9.22) per month for Premium plans and €4 ($4.61) for Standard plans, meaning long-term Premium subscribers could receive around €500 ($576) in refunds, while Standard subscribers could get about €250 ($288). - Strict Compliance Requirements: The court ordered Netflix to publish the ruling on its website and in leading newspapers within 90 days to inform users of their refund rights, with daily penalties of €700 (~$806) for non-compliance, highlighting the legal system's stringent enforcement of corporate compliance.
- Potential Class Action Risk: Consumer leader Alessandro Mostaccio warned of a possible class action if refunds are delayed, while Netflix plans to appeal the decision, and similar complaints have surfaced in Poland and Spain, indicating the widespread and complex nature of the issue.
See More
Netflix Raises Prices Again: Implications for Investors
- Price Increase Impact: Netflix has raised prices across all subscription options by $1 to $2, which may not please consumers; however, the company typically retains low churn rates, and this price hike is expected to have a slightly positive impact on financial results.
- Market Competition Strategy: By introducing a low-cost ad-supported tier and charging for password sharing, Netflix has effectively adapted to a competitive landscape, enhancing user growth and revenue, demonstrating its pricing power and market adaptability.
- Content Investment Plans: The company plans to spend $20 billion on content, up from $18 billion last year; while the price hike may not be necessary to cover this increased budget, it could support expansion into new areas like livestreaming and video podcasts.
- User Base and Brand Advantage: With over 325 million paid subscribers expected by the end of 2025, Netflix's strong brand and content library provide an economic moat, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge in the streaming market, making its stock a favorable option for long-term investors.
See More
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- Price Increase Impact: Netflix is raising prices across all subscription tiers by $1 to $2, which, while not favorable for consumers, is expected to result in a slight revenue boost, showcasing the company's pricing power in a competitive streaming market.
- User Retention Strategy: Historically, Netflix has managed to retain most of its existing customers while attracting new ones despite price hikes, demonstrating its strong brand equity and extensive content library, a strategy that has proven effective during previous adjustments.
- Content Investment Plans: The company plans to spend $20 billion on content, up from $18 billion last year, indicating that while the price increase isn't solely to cover this budget, it may provide additional flexibility for expansion into new areas like livestreaming and video podcasts.
- Long-Term Investment Appeal: With over 325 million paid subscribers and ongoing opportunities for market expansion, Netflix's stock remains a strong pick for long-term investors, even though it was not included in the latest list of top recommended stocks by analysts.
See More
