Microsoft Underperforms in 2026 Despite Doubling AI Revenue
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Poor Stock Performance: Microsoft is down about 13% year-to-date in 2026, making it the worst performer among the 'Magnificent Seven,' despite other members rebounding, indicating market skepticism about its AI promises.
- Accelerated Revenue Growth: In the fiscal third quarter of 2026, Microsoft reported an 18% year-over-year revenue increase to $82.9 billion, with operating income rising 20% to $38.4 billion, demonstrating strong fundamentals.
- AI Business Surge: Microsoft's AI products now have an annual revenue run rate exceeding $37 billion, up 123% year-over-year, driven by external developers on Azure and the rapid growth of its Copilot assistant, indicating rising market demand for AI tools.
- Rising Spending Plans: Microsoft expects capital expenditures to reach approximately $190 billion in 2026, a 61% increase from the previous year, which may pressure gross margins but lays the groundwork for future growth.
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Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 418.570
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 418.570
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company. The Company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The Company’s segments include Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services. This segment primarily comprises: Office Commercial, Office Consumer, LinkedIn, and Dynamics business solutions. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of server products and cloud services, including Azure and other cloud services, SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related Client Access Licenses (CALs), and Nuance and GitHub; and Enterprise Services, including enterprise support services, industry solutions and Nuance professional services. The More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows, Devices, Gaming, and search and news advertising.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- New Opportunities in AI: Microsoft's AI business surpassed a $37 billion annual revenue run rate in fiscal Q3 2026, reflecting a 123% year-over-year growth, which is expected to drive revenue growth back to over 20% in future quarters.
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- Cloud Business Driving Revenue: The Microsoft Cloud platform serves as a primary revenue source, with businesses relying on its scalable IT infrastructure, creating stable recurring revenue and making it difficult for clients to switch to other providers, thereby enhancing Microsoft's market position.
- New Opportunities in AI: Microsoft's AI business surpassed a $37 billion annual revenue run rate in fiscal Q3 2026, reflecting a 123% year-over-year growth, which is expected to drive revenue growth back to over 20% in future quarters.
- Strategic Product Advantage: Microsoft's Agent 365 software aids companies in creating secure AI agents, with clients like Air India and Broward County School District saving millions, further solidifying Microsoft's value and market share in the eyes of customers.
See More
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- Foundation Stock Sale: The Gates Foundation sold all its Microsoft shares in Q1, raising market concerns; however, with a shutdown planned by 2045, the foundation must liquidate its assets gradually to fulfill its donation commitments.
- Microsoft Valuation Decline: Microsoft’s stock has dropped over 20% from recent highs, with a current market cap of $3.1 trillion, indicating a valuation low during a heavy capital investment cycle in AI, which may affect investor confidence.
- Cash Flow Assessment: Evaluating Microsoft’s stock using cash from operations reveals its lowest valuation since 2019, suggesting a significant retraction that reflects market caution regarding future growth prospects.
- AI Investment Outlook: Despite short-term challenges, Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform shows strong performance in AI, indicating long-term growth potential; the foundation's stock sale may be more noise than signal, given Gates' lack of involvement with the company.
See More
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- Financial Overview: SpaceX's stock price on May 22, 2026, serves as a basis for analysis, and while specific financial data is not disclosed, the upcoming IPO generates market interest that could influence investor confidence.
- Market Reaction: The video, published on May 25, 2026, indicates that analysts are cautious about SpaceX's financial status, suggesting that investors may need to reassess their strategies in the current market environment.
- Investment Advice: Despite the generally positive outlook for SpaceX, analysts recommend skipping the stock for now, reflecting concerns over its valuation and market volatility that could impact short-term investment decisions.
- Future Outlook: As SpaceX's IPO approaches, ongoing scrutiny of its financial health will persist, and investors should closely monitor subsequent financial reports and market developments to make informed investment choices.
See More
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- Stable User Base: Dropbox boasts over 18 million paying users, maintaining a strong market position among media and design professionals despite fierce competition from Google and Apple, demonstrating the enduring appeal of its services.
- Stagnant Revenue Growth: Although Dropbox surpassed $2 billion in annual revenue in 2021, its revenue has remained flat over the past two years, reflecting challenges in a competitive landscape and the rapid evolution of the AI sector.
- AI Opportunities: Dropbox is leveraging AI technology to enhance user experience with the launch of its AI-powered Dash feature, which aids users in efficiently searching and interacting with documents, and analysts believe this could attract value investors despite pressures from emerging technologies.
See More
Declining Appeal of U.S. Treasuries Amid Rising Corporate Debt Interest
- Rising Treasury Yields: The yield on the two-year Treasury note has increased by 60 basis points this year, surpassing 4.00%, primarily due to the energy price surge from the Iran war, which is expected to compel the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, thereby heightening investor concerns about Treasuries.
- Strong Corporate Debt Performance: Many blue-chip companies have outperformed Treasuries, with Apple's two-year bond yield narrowing to just 3 basis points above the Treasury yield, marking a record low spread and indicating a growing appeal of corporate debt over government bonds.
- Credit Rating Discrepancies: Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson are the only U.S. companies to hold AAA ratings from the three major agencies, while the U.S. government no longer has a AAA rating, reflecting that the risk of lending to corporations is now comparable to that of Treasuries, prompting investors to reassess risk-reward dynamics.
- Long-Term Investment Concerns: While corporate debt is viewed as lower risk, investors must consider long-term repayment capabilities, especially amid escalating global AI competition, which introduces uncertainties about companies' futures and their ability to meet debt obligations.
See More
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- Leadership Transition: Drew Houston, founder and CEO of Dropbox, is stepping down to become executive chairman, with Ashraf Alkarmi promoted to co-CEO, indicating a significant shift in leadership that may influence the company's strategic direction moving forward.
- Market Performance Decline: Dropbox's current market cap is just over $6 billion, down by half from its peak on the first day of trading in 2018, reflecting the challenges the company faces in the highly competitive cloud storage market, particularly against giants like Google and Apple.
- Stable User Base: Despite competition, Dropbox boasts over 18 million paying users and remains popular among media professionals and designers, demonstrating its sustained appeal in specific market segments.
- AI Opportunities and Challenges: Dropbox is leveraging AI technology to enhance user experience with its AI-powered Dash feature, and while overall revenue has remained flat over the past two years, analysts believe the AI opportunity could attract value investors' interest.
See More
