Keep a Close Eye on Tesla Model Y/3 Q1 Delivery Figures — Analyst Cautions as S/X Production Winds Down
Tesla's Sales and Market Performance: Tesla's Model Y and 3 deliveries are expected to show stability following the expiration of tax credits in the U.S., with about 40% of Tesla's sales coming from the U.S. market, where three-quarters took advantage of the expired tax credit.
Delivery Estimates: Analysts predict Tesla's Model 3/Y deliveries will be around 330,000 units, lower than previous estimates, while overall delivery volume for the first quarter is expected to reach 345,000 units, marking a 2% growth.
Future Developments: Tesla is focusing on the development of its robotaxi network and improving the performance of its self-driving software, with expectations of a significant increase in energy storage deployments in the upcoming quarter.
Investor Sentiment: Retail sentiment around Tesla's stock remains bearish, but the stock has gained 33% over the past year, indicating a mixed outlook among investors despite recent challenges.
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- Musk's Wealth Milestone: With the successful IPO of SpaceX, Musk's stake in the company is now valued at over $760 billion, pushing his net worth past $1 trillion and making him the world's first trillionaire, despite a significant drop in Tesla's profits.
- SpaceX IPO Performance: Priced at $135 per share, SpaceX opened around $150 and ended its first trading day with a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, raising approximately $75 billion, indicating strong market confidence in its future growth potential.
- Tesla and SpaceX Relationship: Tesla holds a small stake in SpaceX, which is also a customer for Tesla's Megapack batteries and Cybertrucks, highlighting the increasingly intertwined business operations and strategic positioning of Musk across both companies.
- Shift in Investor Focus: With SpaceX's public debut, investors can now directly bet on Musk's ambitions in space and AI without the risks associated with Tesla's slowing growth, potentially impacting Tesla's stock performance and market expectations.
- Autonomous Driving Roadmap: Rivian plans to introduce a supervised point-to-point driving system this year, with unsupervised driving expected by 2027, aiming to enhance user experience and strengthen market competitiveness through this technology.
- Partnership with Uber: Rivian's collaboration with Uber will facilitate the deployment of 50,000 R2 robotaxis, with paid rides anticipated to start in 2028, further expanding its market share and enhancing brand influence.
- Positive Market Reaction: Rivian's shares rose 2% following CEO Scaringe's announcement of new plans, marking a fourth consecutive week of gains at 3%, reflecting investor confidence in its autonomous driving technology and market potential.
- Optimistic Outlook for R2 Model: Needham reiterated a 'Buy' rating and a $23 price target for Rivian, believing the newly launched R2 model will drive future growth, despite criticisms regarding lease pricing and missing software features at launch.
- First Day Performance: SpaceX's IPO on Nasdaq closed at $161, a 19% increase from its $135 offer price, indicating strong investor optimism and solidifying its position in the tech sector.
- Retail Investor Enthusiasm: Following the IPO, SpaceX attracted retail investors who purchased $100 billion in shares, although analysts caution that investors may panic if the company fails to deliver expected results in the coming quarters.
- Valuation Controversy: Despite SpaceX's valuation reaching $1.75 trillion, reflecting a nearly 100 times P/E ratio, analysts like Matthew Maley and Morningstar's Nicolas Owens argue that the stock is significantly overvalued, with a fair value estimate of only $63 per share.
- Future Outlook: Despite valuation concerns, analysts remain optimistic about SpaceX's long-term prospects, believing that under the leadership of Gwynne Shotwell and Elon Musk, the company has the potential to overcome challenges and achieve sustainable growth.
- Price Potential Forecast: Ferguson asserts that Tesla's share price should be valued at $3,640, indicating a potential 796% upside from current levels, primarily based on the anticipated growth of its Robotaxi and Optimus businesses, reflecting a bullish market sentiment regarding Tesla's future profitability.
- Merger Impact Analysis: Ferguson opposes a near-term merger with SpaceX, arguing that if it were to occur now, Tesla shareholders would see their ownership stake drop from 90% in 2021 to just 40%, significantly undermining long-term shareholder value and emphasizing the importance of timing in any merger discussions.
- Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment: Tesla's stock rose 4% last week, marking its best weekly performance in over a month, which reflects investor confidence in the company's growth potential while also highlighting the divide in market sentiment regarding the merger proposal, with some investors expressing skepticism.
- Retail Investor Perspectives: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SpaceX is extremely bullish, while sentiment for Tesla remains positive, indicating differing views on the future developments of both companies, particularly concerning the uncertainties that a merger might introduce.
- Musk Disputes Subsidy Claims: Musk asserts that government subsidies have had a negligible impact on Tesla and SpaceX, claiming that all government incentives combined account for less than 2% of the companies' value, emphasizing his commitment to their independence and competitive edge.
- EV Sales Surge: Following the Trump administration's removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, Tesla's sales actually increased, indicating a shift of consumers from rival EV makers to Tesla, which reflects the brand's strong market appeal and customer loyalty.
- SpaceX Funding Overview: SpaceX has received over $500 million in government grants, including a $278 million NASA award in 2006 and a $1.6 billion contract in 2008; while Musk acknowledges NASA's role, he stresses that these funds did not determine the company's success.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SpaceX is extremely bullish, while Tesla maintains a positive outlook despite its underperformance this year, indicating investor confidence in future growth prospects.
- Investment Strategy Insight: Cathie Wood's Ark Invest holds significant stakes in Elon Musk-led companies, with SpaceX being the largest holding in the Ark Venture Fund, reflecting her unwavering belief in early investments in innovators.
- IPO Impact: SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135, with shares rising nearly 20% on the first day, which not only validates market confidence in its valuation but also strongly supports Wood's investment decisions.
- Increased Holdings: Despite being restricted by a lockup period, Wood increased her investment in SpaceX on IPO day by adding it to four actively managed ETFs, indicating her confidence in the company's future growth potential.
- Market Signal: Wood's purchase may bolster investor confidence in SpaceX, especially since she is not yet allowed to sell her shares, signaling her optimism about the company's long-term value.










