JPMorgan Upgrades MGM to Overweight Amid Strong Vegas Tourism
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Rating Upgrade: JPMorgan upgraded MGM from neutral to overweight, raising its 12-month price target from $41 to $46, indicating a 10% upside from the last close, reflecting increased confidence in MGM's future growth prospects.
- Stock Reaction: Following the upgrade, MGM's shares surged 9%, bringing the total increase over the past 12 months to 31%, demonstrating market optimism regarding its performance, particularly amid the recovery of Las Vegas tourism.
- Stable Tourism Data: As of April 2026, Las Vegas welcomed approximately 9.7 million tourists, roughly in line with last year's trends, indicating that despite concerns over rising fuel prices, tourist traffic remains strong, thereby boosting MGM's business growth.
- Market Absorption Capacity: JPMorgan's analysis suggests that the impact of new casino openings in Las Vegas is typically neutral to slightly positive, with historical data showing that market-wide visits increase by an average of 6% following a major new property opening, alongside room revenue and gross gaming revenue growth of 11% and 8%, respectively.
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Analyst Views on MGM
Wall Street analysts forecast MGM stock price to fall
14 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
7 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 42.930
Low
29.00
Averages
40.31
High
56.00
Current: 42.930
Low
29.00
Averages
40.31
High
56.00
About MGM
MGM Resorts International is a global gaming and entertainment company with national and international destinations featuring hotels and casinos, meetings and conference spaces, incredible live and theatrical entertainment experiences, and a range of restaurants, nightlife and retail offerings. Its segment includes Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. Las Vegas Strip Resorts consists of casino resorts: Aria, Bellagio, The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, Luxor, New York-New York, Excalibur, and Park MGM. Regional Operations consists of various casino properties: MGM Grand Detroit in Detroit, Michigan; Beau Rivage in Biloxi, Mississippi; Gold Strike Tunica in Tunica, Borgata in Atlantic City, New Jersey; MGM National Harbor in Prince George’s County, Maryland; MGM Springfield in Springfield, Massachusetts; Empire City in Yonkers, New York, and others. MGM Digital is its online gaming portfolio which consists of LeoVegas.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Statewide Performance: Nevada's gaming win increased 5.3% year-over-year in April to $1.30 billion, despite a slight 0.6% dip in downtown casino revenues, showcasing overall strong performance across the state.
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- Stock Reaction: Following the upgrade, MGM's shares surged 9%, bringing the total increase over the past 12 months to 31%, demonstrating market optimism regarding its performance, particularly amid the recovery of Las Vegas tourism.
- Stable Tourism Data: As of April 2026, Las Vegas welcomed approximately 9.7 million tourists, roughly in line with last year's trends, indicating that despite concerns over rising fuel prices, tourist traffic remains strong, thereby boosting MGM's business growth.
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- Statewide Performance: Nevada's gaming win increased 5.3% year-over-year in April to $1.30 billion, despite a slight 0.6% dip in downtown casino revenues, showcasing overall strong performance across the state.
- Segment Analysis: The slot machine segment saw a 4.1% increase in gaming win, while table and card games rose 8.3%, with baccarat gaming win surging 20%, reflecting changing consumer preferences and market vitality.
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- Surge in Trading Volume: Caesars Entertainment saw trading volume reach 86.9 million shares, approximately 1,324% above its three-month average of 6.1 million shares, indicating strong investor reaction to the acquisition news.
- Shareholder Holding Advice: Although the board has unanimously approved the deal, the presence of a go-shop period until July 11, 2026, allows for potential higher offers, prompting analysts to advise investors to hold their shares until the deal closes.
- Industry Dynamics Impact: The acquisition news has also positively influenced other companies in the casino and gaming sector, such as MGM and Wynn, reflecting renewed market interest in M&A activities within the industry.
See More
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- Stock Reaction: Following the upgrade, MGM's shares surged 9%, bringing the total increase over the past 12 months to 31%, demonstrating market optimism regarding its performance, particularly amid the recovery of Las Vegas tourism.
- Stable Tourism Data: As of April 2026, Las Vegas welcomed approximately 9.7 million tourists, roughly in line with last year's trends, indicating that despite concerns over rising fuel prices, tourist traffic remains strong, thereby boosting MGM's business growth.
- Market Absorption Capacity: JPMorgan's analysis suggests that the impact of new casino openings in Las Vegas is typically neutral to slightly positive, with historical data showing that market-wide visits increase by an average of 6% following a major new property opening, alongside room revenue and gross gaming revenue growth of 11% and 8%, respectively.
See More
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- Oil Price Fluctuations: Crude oil prices plummeted over 5% to a five-week low due to optimism surrounding a US-Iran peace deal, which eased inflation expectations and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to a 1.5-week low of 4.45%, providing support for the bond market.
- Mortgage Application Decline: US MBA mortgage applications fell by 8.5% for the week ending May 22, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down 0.4% and the refinancing sub-index down 18.1%, reflecting the dampening effect of high interest rates on housing demand, as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.65%.
- Corporate Earnings Outlook: As of Wednesday, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, with projected earnings growth of 12% year-over-year, but excluding the technology sector, the growth is only 3%, indicating signs of overall earnings weakness.
See More
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- Impact of Falling Oil Prices: Crude oil prices dropped over 3% amid optimism for a normalization of oil flows from the Middle East, which not only eased inflation expectations but also pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to a 1.5-week low of 4.45%, positively affecting the bond market.
- Decline in Mortgage Applications: US MBA mortgage applications fell by 8.5% for the week ending May 22, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down 0.4% and the refinancing sub-index plunging 18.1%, indicating the suppressive effect of high interest rates on the housing market.
- Corporate Earnings Overview: As of now, 83% of the 475 S&P 500 companies that reported Q1 earnings have exceeded expectations, with overall earnings projected to rise by 12% year-on-year, but excluding the tech sector, the growth is only 3%, highlighting disparities across industries.
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