Is Your Dividend Portfolio DeepSeek-Proof? Let's Discuss
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 05 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MSFT?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Impact of DeepSeek on Dividend Funds: The recent advancements in AI, particularly with DeepSeek's more efficient technology, have negatively affected major tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, which are significant holdings in dividend funds such as QYLD. This raises concerns about the sustainability of high yields amidst potential losses.
Investment Strategy Recommendations: Investors are advised to avoid QYLD and similar funds like XYLD due to their heavy exposure to underperforming tech stocks. Instead, there are suggestions for alternative investments that offer attractive dividends without the associated risks from these troubled companies.
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Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 401.840
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 401.840
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services, spanning a variety of devices and platforms. It comprises Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services; Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, and Dynamics products and cloud services. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of its public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services. It comprises server products and cloud services, including Azure, and enterprise and partner services, including Enterprise Support Services. Its More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows and Devices, including Windows OEM licensing; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content; Search and news advertising, comprising Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Revenue Potential Outlook: Should Microsoft achieve another 160% growth in users over the next year, it could generate an additional $8.6 billion in revenue, which represents nearly 3% of its projected $328 billion revenue for fiscal year 2026, highlighting Copilot's commercial value.
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- User Growth Data: Microsoft revealed that Copilot reached 15 million paying users in its latest earnings call, reflecting a 160% year-over-year growth, although this figure appears small compared to its 450 million Microsoft 365 paid users, indicating potential market demand.
- Market Competition Analysis: While Copilot's conversion rate stands at approximately 3.3%, lower than ChatGPT's 5%, Microsoft's existing user base provides a solid opportunity for future growth through cross-selling, especially as AI tools become more mainstream.
- Revenue Potential Outlook: Should Microsoft achieve another 160% growth in users over the next year, it could generate an additional $8.6 billion in revenue, which represents nearly 3% of its projected $328 billion revenue for fiscal year 2026, highlighting Copilot's commercial value.
- Strategic Positioning and Competitive Advantage: With significant equity stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic, Microsoft can leverage AI to enhance Microsoft 365's competitiveness, thereby maintaining its leadership in the office software market and mitigating competitive pressures in the future.
See More
Microsoft Faces Intensifying Competition in Cloud Computing
- Cloud Competition: Microsoft faces fierce competition in the cloud computing sector from Amazon and Alphabet, with Azure's revenue growth of 39% lagging behind Google Cloud's 48%, indicating market share pressures.
- Rising Infrastructure Costs: The company's increasing infrastructure costs have raised concerns among investors, as CFO Amy Hood noted a direct correlation between capital expenditures and Azure's revenue, potentially impacting future returns on investment.
- Stock Valuation Decline: Microsoft's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen to 25, nearing its lowest level in three years, reflecting market caution regarding its growth prospects, despite analysts' price target of $596 suggesting a 48% upside.
- Investor Sentiment Weakens: Following the earnings report on January 28, Microsoft's stock has dropped 16%, leading to investor doubts about the returns from its AI infrastructure investments, although the low valuation may present a buying opportunity in the long run.
See More
Citi Identifies Rebound Potential in Software Stocks Amid AI Disruption Fears
- Market Panic Intensifies: Fears that AI could render 'software as a service' business models obsolete have led to software stocks plummeting over 20% in 2026, with an 8% drop in February alone, causing investor anxiety about market prospects.
- Citi's Rebound Opportunity: In a February 9 note, Citi identified software and services stocks with market caps over $2 billion that have fallen at least 10% in the past month, suggesting these stocks have rebound potential amid improving earnings expectations.
- Performance of Microsoft and Palantir: Despite being the worst-performing 'Magnificent Seven' stock in 2026, Microsoft is still a buy according to Citi and Goldman Sachs, while Palantir, down nearly 37% from its 52-week high, is viewed as a potential investment opportunity after beating earnings expectations.
- Importance of Earnings Momentum: Citi strategists emphasize that as investor panic subsides, the earnings momentum of software stocks will be crucial in attracting traders, with positive revisions expected to drive interest back to these undervalued stocks.
See More
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- AI Trade Stalling: According to David Woo, the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) has shown no significant movement since last October, with its 100-day rolling return rapidly approaching zero, indicating a potential leadership erosion and the risk of a deeper market correction.
- Earnings Momentum Weakening: During the fourth-quarter earnings season, the combined EBIT four-quarter moving average of the Magnificent Seven fell to its lowest level since 2023, and despite a rebound at Apple, the overall fading earnings growth momentum raises concerns about profit-taking risks for investors.
- Capex Correlation Breakdown: Woo noted that for the first time since the launch of ChatGPT, the strong correlation between AI stocks and hyperscaler capital expenditures has turned negative, suggesting a loss of market trust in capex as a signal for higher returns, which could lead to over-investment risks.
- Market Psychology Shift: As AI-related capex grows much faster than AI-related revenue, Woo warns that this unsustainable gap may indicate a shift in investment cycles outpacing revenue cycles, posing significant risks for the market, especially with an uncertain outlook heading into 2026.
See More
Wall Street's Market Volatility and AI Investment Outlook
- Market Volatility Analysis: The S&P 500 index was nearly flat last week, closing at a level first reached 112 calendar days ago, reflecting a blend of optimism for economic recovery and the intertwining of an AI investment boom, despite mini-crashes in some sectors indicating internal market turbulence and uncertainty.
- AI Investment Outlook: With significant growth expected in AI capital expenditures for 2026, Nvidia's stock price remains flat compared to six months ago, and its forward P/E ratio has dropped to the lowest level since 2015, suggesting a cautious market sentiment regarding the future potential of the AI sector, which may impact investor confidence.
- Consumer Stock Performance: The relative weakness in consumer-exposed stocks contrasts sharply with the performance of traditionally defensive staples, leading to divergent interpretations in the market, which may reflect changes in cyclical demand or deeper economic concerns.
- Corporate Earnings Trends: The S&P 500 is projected to achieve low to mid-teens profit growth in the fourth quarter, surpassing consensus forecasts, yet the continuous outperformance of earnings results may lead to future adjustment risks as the market assumes such margins of victory.
See More
OpenAI and Alphabet CEOs Set to Participate in AI Summit in India
AI Impact Summit in New Delhi: Top tech executives will convene in New Delhi, India, for an AI Impact Summit starting Monday.
Previous Summits: This event follows government-led summits on artificial intelligence that have taken place in the U.K., South Korea, and France.
See More
