Is Trump's MFN Policy Targeting Pharma ETFs?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 10 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Pharma Price Cuts: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have agreed to reduce prices for obesity drugs under the Trump administration's Most-Favored-Nation drug pricing policy, which aims to align U.S. drug prices with those in other advanced countries.
Impact on Pharma Stocks: The price reductions are expected to compress revenues and earnings for major pharmaceutical companies, leading to potential stock price declines for firms like Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and AbbVie, as well as ETFs heavily invested in these companies.
Long-term Strategies: To counteract immediate financial pressures, large-cap pharma companies may increase prices in other markets and shift research investments towards biologics, which have longer exclusivity periods.
ETF Exposure: Investors should closely monitor pharmaceutical ETFs, such as iShares US Pharmaceuticals ETF, VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF, and Invesco Pharmaceuticals ETF, as they may experience declines in Net Asset Value due to their significant holdings in companies affected by the new pricing mandates.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 948.450
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 948.450
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly Halts Obesity Awareness Campaign in India
- Regulatory Warning: The Drugs Controller General of India warned Eli Lilly that its obesity awareness campaign could violate prescription drug advertising regulations, prompting the company to pause its 'We Know Now' initiative to avoid potential legal risks, highlighting the strict and uncertain regulatory environment.
- Market Context: Lilly launched its GLP-1 treatment Mounjaro in India in March 2025 to address the rising obesity issue, with a government survey from 2019 to 2021 indicating that approximately 24% of women aged 15-49 and nearly 23% of men aged 15-54 were overweight or obese, showcasing significant market demand.
- Campaign Impact: Although Lilly's campaign aimed to enhance public understanding of obesity, the regulator's intervention forced the cessation of this scientifically-backed public health initiative, potentially harming the interests of patients and the healthcare community, reflecting the company's conflict between regulatory compliance and public health promotion.
- Industry Uncertainty: Lilly noted in its letter that the guidance from the regulator created 'significant regulatory uncertainty' and questioned whether even non-branded, physician-led initiatives would be restricted, illustrating the ambiguity and challenges faced by the industry in regulatory enforcement.
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- Competitive Pressure Analysis: Boston Scientific's stock has declined due to increased competition, yet analysts suggest holding the stock, indicating confidence in its future potential and reflecting market interest in the medical device sector.
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- Portfolio Overview: As of Q1 2026, PRIMECAP Management's portfolio consists of 320 stocks, with Eli Lilly representing 6.68%, indicating a strong positioning in the healthcare sector and reflecting confidence in long-term growth potential in this industry.
- Key Stock Increases: PRIMECAP increased its stake in Adobe Inc by 1,054,640 shares, bringing total holdings to 4,730,846 shares, representing a 28.69% increase, which suggests a positive outlook on Adobe's future growth and a significant contribution to its portfolio value.
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- Complete Exits: PRIMECAP fully exited 8 holdings in Q1 2026, including 36,915,261 shares of AstraZeneca, resulting in a -2.57% impact on the portfolio, reflecting the firm's strategy adjustment in response to market changes.
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- Market Volatility Analysis: Equity markets have faced significant volatility this year due to rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and potential recession, yet the S&P 500 has still risen by 7%, indicating market resilience.
- Growth Stock Potential: Eli Lilly exemplifies growth potential, with a 56% year-over-year revenue increase to $19.8 billion in Q1, showcasing its dominance in the weight-loss drug market and the likelihood of launching more drugs in the next five years, appealing to high-risk investors.
- Income Stock Stability: Johnson & Johnson, a 'Dividend King' with 64 consecutive years of dividend increases, offers a 2.35% dividend yield, making it suitable for income-seeking investors, particularly those nearing retirement who prefer stability.
- Investment Strategy Considerations: In the current market environment, investors must weigh their personal investment goals and risk tolerance when choosing between growth and income stocks to achieve optimal returns.
See More
Investors' Dilemma: Growth vs. Dividend Stocks
- Market Volatility Impact: The equity markets have faced significant volatility this year due to rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and potential recession, yet the S&P 500 has still risen by 7%, indicating market resilience.
- Growth Stocks' Risk and Reward: Growth stocks tend to be more volatile and may suffer greater losses during economic downturns; however, for long-term investors, market crashes can present opportunities to buy at lower prices, potentially leading to higher returns.
- Stability of Dividend Stocks: Dividend stocks like Johnson & Johnson provide lower volatility and long-term returns for investors nearing retirement, with a remarkable record of 64 consecutive years of dividend increases, showcasing their reliability.
- Eli Lilly's Growth Potential: Eli Lilly reported a 56% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1, reaching $19.8 billion, with earnings per share at $8.26, highlighting its dominance in the weight-loss drug market and promising future growth prospects.
See More
NYSE Issues Daily Pre-Market Advisory
- Market Advisory Issued: The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) released a daily pre-market advisory on May 11, 2026, aimed at providing investors with market insights before trading begins, thereby assisting them in making informed trading decisions.
- Opening Celebration: At the opening bell, Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) celebrates its 150th anniversary, marking the company's long-standing influence and ongoing innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.
- Investor Day Event: Darling Ingredients (NYSE:DAR) showcased its long-term growth path during its Investor Day, emphasizing the company's strategic planning in sustainability and market expansion.
- Market Information Access: Investors can download the NYSE TV app to access daily market dynamics, IPO activities, and opening information, further enhancing their market engagement and information acquisition capabilities.
See More
Eli Lilly Halts Obesity Awareness Campaign in India
- Regulatory Warning: The Drugs Controller General of India warned Eli Lilly that its obesity awareness campaign could violate prescription drug advertising regulations, prompting the company to pause its 'We Know Now' initiative to avoid potential legal risks, highlighting the strict and uncertain regulatory environment.
- Market Context: Lilly launched its GLP-1 treatment Mounjaro in India in March 2025 to address the rising obesity issue, with a government survey from 2019 to 2021 indicating that approximately 24% of women aged 15-49 and nearly 23% of men aged 15-54 were overweight or obese, showcasing significant market demand.
- Campaign Impact: Although Lilly's campaign aimed to enhance public understanding of obesity, the regulator's intervention forced the cessation of this scientifically-backed public health initiative, potentially harming the interests of patients and the healthcare community, reflecting the company's conflict between regulatory compliance and public health promotion.
- Industry Uncertainty: Lilly noted in its letter that the guidance from the regulator created 'significant regulatory uncertainty' and questioned whether even non-branded, physician-led initiatives would be restricted, illustrating the ambiguity and challenges faced by the industry in regulatory enforcement.
See More
Market Analysis: Stock Performance and Investment Recommendations
- Competitive Pressure Analysis: Boston Scientific's stock has declined due to increased competition, yet analysts suggest holding the stock, indicating confidence in its future potential and reflecting market interest in the medical device sector.
- Cloud and Defense Opportunities: Nokia is seen as a dual beneficiary in cloud computing and defense, with analysts recommending its stock, highlighting its strong performance in technology and defense contracts, which may drive future growth.
- Retail Sector Challenges: Chewy faces challenges in the retail sector, with analysts unable to recommend buying due to the impact of war, reflecting a cautious market attitude towards high-growth retail companies.
- Infrastructure Investment Outlook: Caterpillar is viewed as a beneficiary of growing infrastructure and energy demands, with analysts recommending its stock, demonstrating confidence in its strong demand in construction and energy sectors.
See More
PRIMECAP Management's Q1 2026 Investment Strategy Insights
- Portfolio Overview: As of Q1 2026, PRIMECAP Management's portfolio consists of 320 stocks, with Eli Lilly representing 6.68%, indicating a strong positioning in the healthcare sector and reflecting confidence in long-term growth potential in this industry.
- Key Stock Increases: PRIMECAP increased its stake in Adobe Inc by 1,054,640 shares, bringing total holdings to 4,730,846 shares, representing a 28.69% increase, which suggests a positive outlook on Adobe's future growth and a significant contribution to its portfolio value.
- Reduction Analysis: Among 177 stocks, PRIMECAP reduced its position in Micron Technology by 2,920,732 shares, resulting in an 11.78% decrease, indicating a cautious stance on the stock's short-term performance, which may impact future returns.
- Complete Exits: PRIMECAP fully exited 8 holdings in Q1 2026, including 36,915,261 shares of AstraZeneca, resulting in a -2.57% impact on the portfolio, reflecting the firm's strategy adjustment in response to market changes.
See More
Navigating Growth vs. Income Stocks Amid Market Volatility
- Market Volatility Analysis: Equity markets have faced significant volatility this year due to rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and potential recession, yet the S&P 500 has still risen by 7%, indicating market resilience.
- Growth Stock Potential: Eli Lilly exemplifies growth potential, with a 56% year-over-year revenue increase to $19.8 billion in Q1, showcasing its dominance in the weight-loss drug market and the likelihood of launching more drugs in the next five years, appealing to high-risk investors.
- Income Stock Stability: Johnson & Johnson, a 'Dividend King' with 64 consecutive years of dividend increases, offers a 2.35% dividend yield, making it suitable for income-seeking investors, particularly those nearing retirement who prefer stability.
- Investment Strategy Considerations: In the current market environment, investors must weigh their personal investment goals and risk tolerance when choosing between growth and income stocks to achieve optimal returns.
See More
Investors' Dilemma: Growth vs. Dividend Stocks
- Market Volatility Impact: The equity markets have faced significant volatility this year due to rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and potential recession, yet the S&P 500 has still risen by 7%, indicating market resilience.
- Growth Stocks' Risk and Reward: Growth stocks tend to be more volatile and may suffer greater losses during economic downturns; however, for long-term investors, market crashes can present opportunities to buy at lower prices, potentially leading to higher returns.
- Stability of Dividend Stocks: Dividend stocks like Johnson & Johnson provide lower volatility and long-term returns for investors nearing retirement, with a remarkable record of 64 consecutive years of dividend increases, showcasing their reliability.
- Eli Lilly's Growth Potential: Eli Lilly reported a 56% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1, reaching $19.8 billion, with earnings per share at $8.26, highlighting its dominance in the weight-loss drug market and promising future growth prospects.
See More
NYSE Issues Daily Pre-Market Advisory
- Market Advisory Issued: The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) released a daily pre-market advisory on May 11, 2026, aimed at providing investors with market insights before trading begins, thereby assisting them in making informed trading decisions.
- Opening Celebration: At the opening bell, Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) celebrates its 150th anniversary, marking the company's long-standing influence and ongoing innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.
- Investor Day Event: Darling Ingredients (NYSE:DAR) showcased its long-term growth path during its Investor Day, emphasizing the company's strategic planning in sustainability and market expansion.
- Market Information Access: Investors can download the NYSE TV app to access daily market dynamics, IPO activities, and opening information, further enhancing their market engagement and information acquisition capabilities.
See More
