Home Depot Exceeds Q1 Earnings Expectations Amidst Market Challenges
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Earnings Growth: Home Depot's Q1 revenue increased approximately 5% year-over-year to $41.8 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $41.5 billion, indicating persistent consumer demand despite high inflation and interest rates.
- Net Profit Changes: Although net earnings fell to $3.3 billion, or $3.30 per share, from $3.4 billion a year ago, the adjusted earnings of $3.43 per share exceeded analyst forecasts, reflecting the company's resilience in challenging conditions.
- Guidance Reaffirmation: Home Depot reaffirmed its 2026 sales growth target of 2.5% to 4.5% and projected comparable store sales growth of 0% to 2%, while raising its operating margin target to 12.4% to 12.6%, demonstrating management's confidence in future performance.
- Market Outlook Uncertainty: Despite analysts maintaining a buy rating for Home Depot with a median price target of $380, suggesting a potential 23% upside over the next 12 months, the high valuation and stagnant real estate market complicate the outlook significantly.
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Analyst Views on HD
Wall Street analysts forecast HD stock price to rise
23 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 321.210
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
Current: 321.210
Low
320.00
Averages
401.47
High
441.00
About HD
The Home Depot, Inc. is a home improvement retailer. It offers its customers an assortment of home improvement products, building materials, lawn and garden products, decor products, and facilities maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products, in stores and online. It also provides a number of services, including home improvement installation services, and tool and equipment rental. It operates over 2,359 stores located throughout the U.S. (including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territories of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam), Canada, and Mexico. Its stores average over 104,000 square feet of enclosed space, with over 24,000 additional square feet of outside garden area. It also maintains a network of distribution and fulfillment centers, as well as mobile applications and e-commerce websites in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. It serves two primary customer groups, including both do-it-yourself (DIY) and do-it-for-me (DIFM) customers and professional customers (Pros).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Hershey's Steady Growth: Hershey's stock has also declined by 29%, yet its first-quarter organic sales grew nearly 8% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings rising 12%, demonstrating the resilience of its brand portfolio and suggesting continued stable growth in the coming years.
- Diageo's High Yield: Diageo offers a dividend yield of 3.88%, and although its stock is down 61% from its peak, its organic net sales increased by 0.3% year-over-year, showcasing the value of its diversified brand portfolio, with future potential to enhance free cash flow supporting dividend payments.
- Market Dynamics Analysis: While macroeconomic pressures have impacted consumer brand stock prices, the current low prices make these companies' dividend yields particularly attractive for income-seeking investors, especially in the context of an anticipated economic recovery.
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- Hershey's Brand Resilience: Hershey's stock has fallen 29% due to rising cocoa prices and the impact of weight-loss drugs on consumers, yet its brand portfolio remains robust, with organic sales growing nearly 8% year-over-year in Q1 and adjusted earnings up 12%, showcasing its sustained growth potential in the $146 billion global confectionery market.
- Diageo's High Yield: Diageo offers a dividend yield of 3.88%, having paid out 91% of its free cash flow over the past year, but its strong portfolio in beer and spirits provides pricing power, with organic net sales increasing 0.3% year-over-year last quarter, highlighting the value of its diversified brand portfolio.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: With cocoa prices easing and Hershey's margins set to improve, its forward yield of 3% appears particularly attractive, while Diageo aims to boost free cash flow to $3 billion, indicating strong long-term potential for investing in these high-yield dividend stocks.
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- Supply-Demand Imbalance: The U.S. housing market faces a supply-demand imbalance, as housing prices surged during the pandemic due to low interest rates, but now the rapid price increases have outpaced household income growth, leading to multi-decade lows in housing affordability.
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- Weak Zillow Performance: Zillow's stock is hovering around a three-year low, and despite a large user base, a 3% decline in traffic in the latest quarter poses challenges for future revenue growth amid a sluggish market outlook.
- Home Depot and Sherwin-Williams: Home Depot faces growth pressures due to slowing consumer spending, yet its 18 consecutive years of dividend increases continue to attract investors; meanwhile, Sherwin-Williams demonstrates stronger resilience with robust sales and significant international exposure.
See More
Investment Choices in Home Improvement Market Analysis
- Lowe's Performance Overview: In fiscal 2025, Lowe's achieved revenue of $86 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 3%, with a net income of about $6.7 billion and a net margin of 7.7%, indicating its stability and profitability in the home improvement market.
- Home Depot Highlights: Home Depot reported nearly $165 billion in revenue for 2025, growing around 3.2%, with a net income of approximately $14.2 billion and a net margin of 8.6%, showcasing its strong performance and profitability in the market.
- Competitive Risk Analysis: Lowe's faces intense competition from retail giants like Walmart and Amazon, with its performance heavily reliant on the health of the housing market and consumer spending, while Home Depot is sensitive to high interest rates that may slow down large renovation projects.
- Valuation Comparison: Lowe's forward P/E ratio stands at 17x, lower than Home Depot's 20.7x, and its P/S ratio is 1.4x compared to Home Depot's 1.9x, indicating a more attractive value proposition and growth potential moving forward.
See More
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- Market Positioning Differences: Lowe's focuses on DIY consumers with 1,748 stores and $86 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, yielding a net income of approximately $6.7 billion and a net margin of 7.7%, while Home Depot serves a broader customer base with nearly $165 billion in revenue and a net income of about $14.2 billion, reflecting a net margin of 8.6%.
- Financial Health Comparison: As of January 2026, Lowe's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 4.2 with a current ratio of approximately 1.1 and free cash flow nearing $7.7 billion; in contrast, Home Depot's debt-to-equity ratio is 5.1 with free cash flow reaching $12.6 billion, highlighting differing financial management strategies.
- Growth Potential Assessment: Analysts project Lowe's annual earnings growth at about 9%, surpassing Home Depot's 5%, while Lowe's forward P/E ratio of 17 is lower than Home Depot's 21, indicating that Lowe's may offer higher investment return potential in the current market environment.
- Competitive Risk Analysis: Lowe's faces intense competition from Walmart and Amazon, with its performance heavily reliant on the health of the housing market, whereas Home Depot may be impacted by high interest rates affecting large renovation projects, necessitating both companies to maintain competitiveness in pricing and service to avoid market share loss.
See More
Top Consumer Brands Offer Attractive Dividend Yields Amid Market Weakness
- Home Depot Investment Opportunity: Home Depot's shares are currently trading 29% below their previous high, and despite sales growth being pressured by high interest rates, its quarterly dividend of $2.33 per share yields 2.98%, significantly above the S&P 500 average, indicating strong investment value during economic recovery.
- Hershey's Steady Growth: Hershey's stock has also declined by 29%, yet its first-quarter organic sales grew nearly 8% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings rising 12%, demonstrating the resilience of its brand portfolio and suggesting continued stable growth in the coming years.
- Diageo's High Yield: Diageo offers a dividend yield of 3.88%, and although its stock is down 61% from its peak, its organic net sales increased by 0.3% year-over-year, showcasing the value of its diversified brand portfolio, with future potential to enhance free cash flow supporting dividend payments.
- Market Dynamics Analysis: While macroeconomic pressures have impacted consumer brand stock prices, the current low prices make these companies' dividend yields particularly attractive for income-seeking investors, especially in the context of an anticipated economic recovery.
See More
Top Dividend Stocks to Buy Amid Market Weakness
- Home Depot Investment Opportunity: Home Depot's stock is currently 29% below its historical high, and despite sales growth being pressured by high interest rates, its quarterly dividend of $2.33 per share, equating to an annual yield of 2.98%, significantly exceeds the S&P 500 average, indicating strong investment potential as the economy rebounds.
- Hershey's Brand Resilience: Hershey's stock has fallen 29% due to rising cocoa prices and the impact of weight-loss drugs on consumers, yet its brand portfolio remains robust, with organic sales growing nearly 8% year-over-year in Q1 and adjusted earnings up 12%, showcasing its sustained growth potential in the $146 billion global confectionery market.
- Diageo's High Yield: Diageo offers a dividend yield of 3.88%, having paid out 91% of its free cash flow over the past year, but its strong portfolio in beer and spirits provides pricing power, with organic net sales increasing 0.3% year-over-year last quarter, highlighting the value of its diversified brand portfolio.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: With cocoa prices easing and Hershey's margins set to improve, its forward yield of 3% appears particularly attractive, while Diageo aims to boost free cash flow to $3 billion, indicating strong long-term potential for investing in these high-yield dividend stocks.
See More
Zillow Stock Nears Three-Year Low Amid Weak Housing Market Guidance
- Market Weakness Impact: Zillow's stock is hovering around a three-year low due to the company's weak guidance for the housing market in the second half of the year, indicating economic slowdown pressures on the real estate sector.
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: The U.S. housing market faces a supply-demand imbalance, as housing prices surged during the pandemic due to low interest rates, but now the rapid price increases have outpaced household income growth, leading to multi-decade lows in housing affordability.
- Traffic and Revenue Growth: Despite a 3% year-over-year decline in traffic to Zillow's mobile apps and website, the company achieved an 18% revenue increase, demonstrating its profitability during market downturns, supported by a massive user base of 220 million monthly active users.
- Long-Term Investment Opportunity: For long-term investors seeking growth stocks, Zillow presents a compelling investment opportunity poised for recovery alongside the housing market, particularly given its valuable database and diversified revenue streams that will support future growth.
See More
Housing Market Demand Under Pressure
- Declining Housing Demand: Housing demand has significantly weakened due to high interest rates and home prices relative to household income, leading to reduced market activity and negatively impacting related companies' performance.
- Supply Shortage: New construction has failed to compensate for the shortfall in existing home sales, resulting in persistently low housing supply, which exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance and affects housing price stability.
- Weak Zillow Performance: Zillow's stock is hovering around a three-year low, and despite a large user base, a 3% decline in traffic in the latest quarter poses challenges for future revenue growth amid a sluggish market outlook.
- Home Depot and Sherwin-Williams: Home Depot faces growth pressures due to slowing consumer spending, yet its 18 consecutive years of dividend increases continue to attract investors; meanwhile, Sherwin-Williams demonstrates stronger resilience with robust sales and significant international exposure.
See More
Investment Choices in Home Improvement Market Analysis
- Lowe's Performance Overview: In fiscal 2025, Lowe's achieved revenue of $86 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 3%, with a net income of about $6.7 billion and a net margin of 7.7%, indicating its stability and profitability in the home improvement market.
- Home Depot Highlights: Home Depot reported nearly $165 billion in revenue for 2025, growing around 3.2%, with a net income of approximately $14.2 billion and a net margin of 8.6%, showcasing its strong performance and profitability in the market.
- Competitive Risk Analysis: Lowe's faces intense competition from retail giants like Walmart and Amazon, with its performance heavily reliant on the health of the housing market and consumer spending, while Home Depot is sensitive to high interest rates that may slow down large renovation projects.
- Valuation Comparison: Lowe's forward P/E ratio stands at 17x, lower than Home Depot's 20.7x, and its P/S ratio is 1.4x compared to Home Depot's 1.9x, indicating a more attractive value proposition and growth potential moving forward.
See More
Lowe's vs Home Depot: Market Competition Analysis
- Market Positioning Differences: Lowe's focuses on DIY consumers with 1,748 stores and $86 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, yielding a net income of approximately $6.7 billion and a net margin of 7.7%, while Home Depot serves a broader customer base with nearly $165 billion in revenue and a net income of about $14.2 billion, reflecting a net margin of 8.6%.
- Financial Health Comparison: As of January 2026, Lowe's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 4.2 with a current ratio of approximately 1.1 and free cash flow nearing $7.7 billion; in contrast, Home Depot's debt-to-equity ratio is 5.1 with free cash flow reaching $12.6 billion, highlighting differing financial management strategies.
- Growth Potential Assessment: Analysts project Lowe's annual earnings growth at about 9%, surpassing Home Depot's 5%, while Lowe's forward P/E ratio of 17 is lower than Home Depot's 21, indicating that Lowe's may offer higher investment return potential in the current market environment.
- Competitive Risk Analysis: Lowe's faces intense competition from Walmart and Amazon, with its performance heavily reliant on the health of the housing market, whereas Home Depot may be impacted by high interest rates affecting large renovation projects, necessitating both companies to maintain competitiveness in pricing and service to avoid market share loss.
See More
