High-Income Workers Extend Job Tenure Amid AI Fears
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 25 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Labor Market Confidence Decline: The University of Michigan survey indicates that confidence among high earners in the labor market has plummeted to historic lows since the late 1970s, reflecting fears of rising unemployment rates that may lead to longer job tenures, thereby impacting overall economic dynamism.
- Decreased White-Collar Turnover: ADP reports that turnover rates among traditional white-collar jobs have reached record lows, suggesting that fears of AI job displacement are causing high-income workers to remain in their positions longer, potentially reducing market activity and affecting corporate innovation.
- Complex AI Impact: Federal Reserve officials highlight that while AI may displace certain jobs, it could also create new opportunities, emphasizing the dual role of AI in the future labor market, which may influence policy-making and corporate strategies.
- Strong Employment for High Earners: Despite low confidence among high-income workers, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the unemployment rate in finance is just 2.1%, indicating that the job market for high earners remains robust, potentially supporting economic recovery.
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Analyst Views on ADP
Wall Street analysts forecast ADP stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 225.770
Low
230.00
Averages
276.83
High
332.00
Current: 225.770
Low
230.00
Averages
276.83
High
332.00
About ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based human resources management, payroll processing, and professional employer organization services. Its segments include Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). Its Employer Services segment serves clients ranging from single-employee small businesses to large enterprises with tens of thousands of employees around the world, offering a range of technology-based HCM solutions, including its cloud-based platforms, and human resource outsourcing (HRO) (other than PEO) solutions. Its offerings include payroll services, benefits administration, talent management, HR management, workforce management, compliance services, insurance services and others. Its PEO business, called ADP TotalSource, provides clients with guidance, technology, comprehensive employee benefits, risk management, safety, and workers' compensation programs. Its compensation management software supports the compensation planning needs.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Youth Employment Decline: As of April, employment among 22 to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations fell by 4.2%, compared to a 1.7% decline for peers in less-exposed fields, indicating a significant impact of AI on early-career workers.
- Industry Disparities: While overall employment in AI-exposed jobs dropped by only 0.2%, young workers in software development saw a notable decline post-ChatGPT, highlighting varying impacts of technology across different professions.
- Need for Skill Enhancement: ADP's chief economist emphasized that young workers must upskill to take on more complex roles, stressing that transitioning from automation to augmentation is crucial for career advancement.
- Call to Action: The data suggests that young workers should proactively learn and seek guidance from experienced colleagues to advance quickly in their careers and avoid marginalization due to technological changes.
See More
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- Job Growth Trend: For the four weeks ending May 23, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 29,000 jobs per week, indicating a slowdown in job growth for the third consecutive week, reflecting signs of economic recovery fatigue.
- Data Adjustment Note: These figures are preliminary and may change as new data is incorporated, highlighting the importance of accurate estimates for real-time employment trends.
- Release Frequency and Timing: The NER Pulse is published every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, providing week-over-week employment change estimates based on a four-week moving average, ensuring timeliness and accuracy of the data.
- ADP Research Mission: ADP Research aims to enhance work productivity through data-driven discovery, assisting companies, workers, and policymakers in making informed decisions that impact workplaces globally.
See More
Signs of Stability in the U.S. Job Market Ahead of Jobs Report
- Job Growth Expectations: Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that the U.S. will add 85,000 jobs in May while the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.3%, marking three consecutive months of job gains, indicating some stability in the labor market.
- Strong Private Sector Performance: ADP reported that private employers added 122,000 jobs in May, with hiring occurring across eight of the ten supersectors, suggesting that despite market fluctuations, certain industries are actively recruiting.
- Increase in Job Openings: Job openings surged to 7.62 million in April, a significant rise from March, although hiring declined in April; the increase was particularly concentrated in the professional and business services sector, reflecting ongoing demand for specific skills.
- Cautious Hiring Environment: The Federal Reserve's Beige Book noted little to no change in employment across 11 districts, with hiring focused on critical roles or attrition replacements, indicating that economic uncertainty is making workers reluctant to change jobs, leading to a cautious hiring landscape.
See More
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- Stock Trend Analysis: ADP's stock is breaking out from a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern, showing early signs of bottom formation as it steadily recovers from its April low, despite a decline from the June 2025 peak of 330.
- Software Sector Comparison: ADP's reliance on large-scale software operations aligns its trajectory with the IGV software ETF, which has recently surged to 104 after several months of bottoming, suggesting ADP may experience a similar rebound.
- Industry ETF Performance: As a component of the XLI industrial ETF, ADP has lagged, even as XLI approaches its historical highs from February; however, the similarity between ADP's bottoming pattern and XLI's cup and handle formation indicates potential for upward movement.
- Long-Term Trend Support: ADP's stock has bounced near a long-term uptrend line drawn from the 2011 lows, historically showing significant rebounds after corrections of 20% to 44% at this trendline, suggesting a strong possibility of returning to 2025 highs based on current support indicators.
See More
May Private Payrolls Growth Exceeds Expectations
- Strong Job Growth: ADP reported that private payrolls added 122,000 jobs in May, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 110,000, indicating a stable labor market and marking the strongest month since January 2025.
- Broad-Based Gains: Unlike previous months where job growth was concentrated in healthcare, eight out of ten sectors tracked by ADP saw gains, with education and health services leading at 57,000 hires, while trade, transportation, and utilities added 36,000.
- Impact of Company Size: Companies with fewer than 50 employees led the hiring with 67,000 new jobs, while larger firms with 500 or more employees added 40,000, reflecting a positive hiring trend across various business sizes and boosting market confidence.
- Stable Wage Growth: Annual pay for those remaining in their jobs rose by 4.4%, consistent with April, while job-switchers experienced a slight decline in pay growth to 6.5%, indicating ongoing wage competitiveness in the labor market.
See More
U.S. Private Sector Employment Increased by 122,000 in May
- Employment Growth Overview: The ADP National Employment Report indicates that the U.S. private sector added 122,000 jobs in May 2026, reflecting sustained momentum in the labor market as the summer hiring season approaches.
- Industry Distribution Analysis: Among the new jobs, the service sector led with an increase of 114,000 positions, while the goods-producing sector added 8,000 jobs, indicating a strong recovery in services that could drive overall economic growth.
- Regional Employment Changes: Job growth was balanced across regions, with the West adding 45,000 jobs, followed by the Northeast and South with 35,000 and 23,000 jobs respectively, showcasing a widespread increase in hiring demand nationwide.
- Wage Growth Trends: In May, pay for job-stayers rose by 4.4% year-over-year, while pay for job-changers slightly slowed to 6.5%, reflecting ongoing competition for talent in the market and providing support for future consumer spending.
See More
