Gold Prices Hit Two-Month Low Amid U.S.-Iran Uncertainty
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Gold Price Decline: On Thursday, spot gold prices fell approximately 1.6% to $4,385.85 per ounce, marking the lowest level since March 26, driven by heightened uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran conflict, which strengthened the dollar and made gold more expensive for international holders.
- UBS Lowers Price Forecast: While UBS maintains a bullish outlook on gold, it has revised its year-end price target down from $5,900 to $5,500, indicating that high energy prices and tightening monetary policy expectations may pressure gold in the short term, although medium-term demand remains robust.
- BofA Bullish on Gold: Bank of America has set a year-end gold price target of $5,093, representing a 16% increase from Thursday's spot price, with analysts noting that despite gold being overbought, underinvestment and supportive macro conditions suggest potential upside risks to their forecasts.
- Increased Market Volatility: The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to heightened volatility in gold and silver trading, with silver spot prices dropping 2.4% to $72.85 per ounce, reflecting investor concerns over inflation and rising interest rates, which diminish interest in non-yielding assets.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy UBS?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on UBS
Wall Street analysts forecast UBS stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
2 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 46.840
Low
39.12
Averages
52.09
High
71.73
Current: 46.840
Low
39.12
Averages
52.09
High
71.73
About UBS
UBS Group AG is a Switzerland-based holding company and conducts its operations through UBS AG and its subsidiaries. The company operates as a wealth manager with focused asset management and investment banking capabilities and a capital-light and cash-generative business model. The Company comprises four business divisions: Global Wealth Management, which provides tailored advice and solutions to its clients around the globe; Personal & Corporate Banking division provides comprehensive financial products and services to private, corporate and institutional clients in Switzerland; Asset Management division offers investment capabilities and styles across all traditional and alternative asset classes, as well as advisory support to institutions; Investment Bank provides investment advice, financial solutions and capital markets access to institutional, corporate and wealth management clients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Micron Surpasses $1 Trillion Market Cap
- Milestone Achievement: Micron has achieved a historic milestone by increasing its market cap from $500 billion to $1 trillion in just 48 trading days, marking it as the fastest company to reach this threshold, which underscores its robust growth potential in the memory chip market.
- Strong Financial Performance: In its most recent quarter, Micron's revenue nearly tripled to $23.8 billion, while net income surged nearly tenfold to $13.8 billion, with a 67.6% operating margin indicating significant profitability amid market tightness.
- Structural Supply-Demand Tightness: Management highlighted that the gap between supply and demand in the memory market is structural and expected to persist beyond 2026, with key customers only able to meet around 60% of their memory needs, indicating ongoing constraints and future growth potential.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Micron anticipates third-quarter revenues between $32.75 billion and $34.25 billion, with adjusted earnings per share projected at $18.75 to $19.55, and analysts generally believe the company will exceed these targets, reflecting strong market confidence in its future performance.
See More
Micron Stock Surges to Historic High, Market Cap Exceeds $1 Trillion
- Milestone Market Cap: Micron achieved a historic milestone by increasing its market cap from $500 billion to $1 trillion in just 48 trading days, the fastest in history, highlighting its robust growth potential in the memory chip market and solidifying its industry leadership.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Management anticipates third-quarter revenue between $32.75 billion and $34.25 billion, representing a 262% year-over-year increase, with adjusted earnings per share expected to soar from $1.91 to $19.21, reflecting strong demand and profitability in the memory sector.
- Supply-Demand Tightness: Executives indicated that the structural gap between supply and demand in the memory market is expected to persist beyond 2026, suggesting that memory prices will remain elevated, which will drive sustained profitability for the company in the coming years.
- AI-Driven Growth: With companies like Nvidia proactively ordering memory products, Micron's growth prospects appear increasingly optimistic, indicating strong market demand for its offerings, which could continue to propel its stock price higher in the years ahead.
See More
UBS Appoints New Market Executives for Southeast Region
- Leadership Changes: UBS Wealth Management USA has appointed John Houlihan as Market Executive for the South Market, overseeing Private Wealth Management in Georgia, Tennessee, and Arkansas, aiming to capitalize on the region's wealth influx.
- Experienced Leadership: John Houlihan brings over three decades of financial services experience, having joined UBS in 2015 as Northeast Regional Market Director, showcasing exceptional leadership and client trust.
- Market Structure Evolution: Tyler Hutchens has been named Market Executive for the Greater Florida/Gulf Coast Market, responsible for overseeing multiple cities including New Orleans and Jackson, aiming to enhance UBS's presence in critical wealth centers.
- Strategic Expansion Plans: These appointments reflect UBS's commitment to the South Market, particularly in the context of rapid wealth growth, enhancing customer service and market competitiveness through strengthened leadership.
See More
Global Oil Prices Drop 20% on Ceasefire Prospects
- Significant Price Drop: Global oil prices have fallen approximately 20% from 2026 highs, with Brent crude down 1.2% to $92.56 on the last trading day of the month, reflecting market optimism regarding a potential ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
- Poor May Performance: Brent crude has plunged nearly 19% in May, marking its worst month since the Covid-19 pandemic, while West Texas Intermediate prices have dropped 16.5%, indicating concerns over future supply stability.
- Transport Disruptions: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely impacted, with Iranian crude loadings in May plummeting to 300,000 barrels per day, down sharply from April's 1.5 million barrels, highlighting the ongoing war's effect on global energy supply.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: Despite hopes for a ceasefire, analysts warn that oil prices are likely to remain between $90 and $100 due to significant infrastructure damage and ongoing security challenges, with persistent skepticism surrounding the negotiations.
See More
Private Credit Defaults Expected to Rise to Record Levels
- Rising Default Rates: According to S&P, private credit defaults are expected to increase from 4.4% to 9-10%, primarily driven by the implications of the AI cycle, which may exacerbate risks associated with corporate loans and undermine investor confidence.
- Software Sector Pressure: The software industry accounts for 19% of private credit collateralized loan obligations, and as growth slows and margins compress, the repayment capacity of these loans is expected to be negatively impacted, adding to market uncertainty.
- Liquidity Crisis: With constrained liquidity, investors are beginning to attempt to withdraw funds, particularly with significant withdrawal requests anticipated in June, which could exert further pressure on the market and lead to more default events.
- Pension Fund Risks: While some large state pension funds continue to maintain investments in private credit, their significant risk exposure could have spillover effects on the broader financial markets, especially given that banks have loaned approximately $300 billion to private credit, potentially putting retail investors at risk.
See More
Family Offices Plan Major Portfolio Shifts
- Investment Reallocation: According to the UBS Global Family Office Report, 60% of family offices plan to make strategic changes to their investment allocations in the next year, a figure that is double the level seen over the past five years, indicating heightened sensitivity to market dynamics.
- Rising Geopolitical Risks: Family offices identify geopolitical uncertainty as the top risk for the next 12 months and the next five years, reflecting the complexity and unpredictability of the global economic environment, which drives them to seek broader risk diversification.
- De-Dollarization Trend: More than a quarter of family offices plan to reduce their holdings in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, indicating a declining confidence in the dollar's reserve role, which further encourages a preference for currencies like the Swiss franc and euro.
- Increased Emerging Market Investments: Family offices intend to boost their investments in emerging market equities, infrastructure, and gold, while slightly reducing their cash and real estate holdings, as a strategy to navigate global economic instability and potential high risks.
See More
Micron Surpasses $1 Trillion Market Cap
- Milestone Achievement: Micron has achieved a historic milestone by increasing its market cap from $500 billion to $1 trillion in just 48 trading days, marking it as the fastest company to reach this threshold, which underscores its robust growth potential in the memory chip market.
- Strong Financial Performance: In its most recent quarter, Micron's revenue nearly tripled to $23.8 billion, while net income surged nearly tenfold to $13.8 billion, with a 67.6% operating margin indicating significant profitability amid market tightness.
- Structural Supply-Demand Tightness: Management highlighted that the gap between supply and demand in the memory market is structural and expected to persist beyond 2026, with key customers only able to meet around 60% of their memory needs, indicating ongoing constraints and future growth potential.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Micron anticipates third-quarter revenues between $32.75 billion and $34.25 billion, with adjusted earnings per share projected at $18.75 to $19.55, and analysts generally believe the company will exceed these targets, reflecting strong market confidence in its future performance.
See More
Micron Stock Surges to Historic High, Market Cap Exceeds $1 Trillion
- Milestone Market Cap: Micron achieved a historic milestone by increasing its market cap from $500 billion to $1 trillion in just 48 trading days, the fastest in history, highlighting its robust growth potential in the memory chip market and solidifying its industry leadership.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Management anticipates third-quarter revenue between $32.75 billion and $34.25 billion, representing a 262% year-over-year increase, with adjusted earnings per share expected to soar from $1.91 to $19.21, reflecting strong demand and profitability in the memory sector.
- Supply-Demand Tightness: Executives indicated that the structural gap between supply and demand in the memory market is expected to persist beyond 2026, suggesting that memory prices will remain elevated, which will drive sustained profitability for the company in the coming years.
- AI-Driven Growth: With companies like Nvidia proactively ordering memory products, Micron's growth prospects appear increasingly optimistic, indicating strong market demand for its offerings, which could continue to propel its stock price higher in the years ahead.
See More
UBS Appoints New Market Executives for Southeast Region
- Leadership Changes: UBS Wealth Management USA has appointed John Houlihan as Market Executive for the South Market, overseeing Private Wealth Management in Georgia, Tennessee, and Arkansas, aiming to capitalize on the region's wealth influx.
- Experienced Leadership: John Houlihan brings over three decades of financial services experience, having joined UBS in 2015 as Northeast Regional Market Director, showcasing exceptional leadership and client trust.
- Market Structure Evolution: Tyler Hutchens has been named Market Executive for the Greater Florida/Gulf Coast Market, responsible for overseeing multiple cities including New Orleans and Jackson, aiming to enhance UBS's presence in critical wealth centers.
- Strategic Expansion Plans: These appointments reflect UBS's commitment to the South Market, particularly in the context of rapid wealth growth, enhancing customer service and market competitiveness through strengthened leadership.
See More
Global Oil Prices Drop 20% on Ceasefire Prospects
- Significant Price Drop: Global oil prices have fallen approximately 20% from 2026 highs, with Brent crude down 1.2% to $92.56 on the last trading day of the month, reflecting market optimism regarding a potential ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
- Poor May Performance: Brent crude has plunged nearly 19% in May, marking its worst month since the Covid-19 pandemic, while West Texas Intermediate prices have dropped 16.5%, indicating concerns over future supply stability.
- Transport Disruptions: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely impacted, with Iranian crude loadings in May plummeting to 300,000 barrels per day, down sharply from April's 1.5 million barrels, highlighting the ongoing war's effect on global energy supply.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: Despite hopes for a ceasefire, analysts warn that oil prices are likely to remain between $90 and $100 due to significant infrastructure damage and ongoing security challenges, with persistent skepticism surrounding the negotiations.
See More
Private Credit Defaults Expected to Rise to Record Levels
- Rising Default Rates: According to S&P, private credit defaults are expected to increase from 4.4% to 9-10%, primarily driven by the implications of the AI cycle, which may exacerbate risks associated with corporate loans and undermine investor confidence.
- Software Sector Pressure: The software industry accounts for 19% of private credit collateralized loan obligations, and as growth slows and margins compress, the repayment capacity of these loans is expected to be negatively impacted, adding to market uncertainty.
- Liquidity Crisis: With constrained liquidity, investors are beginning to attempt to withdraw funds, particularly with significant withdrawal requests anticipated in June, which could exert further pressure on the market and lead to more default events.
- Pension Fund Risks: While some large state pension funds continue to maintain investments in private credit, their significant risk exposure could have spillover effects on the broader financial markets, especially given that banks have loaned approximately $300 billion to private credit, potentially putting retail investors at risk.
See More
Family Offices Plan Major Portfolio Shifts
- Investment Reallocation: According to the UBS Global Family Office Report, 60% of family offices plan to make strategic changes to their investment allocations in the next year, a figure that is double the level seen over the past five years, indicating heightened sensitivity to market dynamics.
- Rising Geopolitical Risks: Family offices identify geopolitical uncertainty as the top risk for the next 12 months and the next five years, reflecting the complexity and unpredictability of the global economic environment, which drives them to seek broader risk diversification.
- De-Dollarization Trend: More than a quarter of family offices plan to reduce their holdings in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, indicating a declining confidence in the dollar's reserve role, which further encourages a preference for currencies like the Swiss franc and euro.
- Increased Emerging Market Investments: Family offices intend to boost their investments in emerging market equities, infrastructure, and gold, while slightly reducing their cash and real estate holdings, as a strategy to navigate global economic instability and potential high risks.
See More
