Global Oil Prices Drop 20% on Ceasefire Prospects
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Significant Price Drop: Global oil prices have fallen approximately 20% from 2026 highs, with Brent crude down 1.2% to $92.56 on the last trading day of the month, reflecting market optimism regarding a potential ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
- Poor May Performance: Brent crude has plunged nearly 19% in May, marking its worst month since the Covid-19 pandemic, while West Texas Intermediate prices have dropped 16.5%, indicating concerns over future supply stability.
- Transport Disruptions: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely impacted, with Iranian crude loadings in May plummeting to 300,000 barrels per day, down sharply from April's 1.5 million barrels, highlighting the ongoing war's effect on global energy supply.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: Despite hopes for a ceasefire, analysts warn that oil prices are likely to remain between $90 and $100 due to significant infrastructure damage and ongoing security challenges, with persistent skepticism surrounding the negotiations.
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Analyst Views on UBS
Wall Street analysts forecast UBS stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
2 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 46.840
Low
39.12
Averages
52.09
High
71.73
Current: 46.840
Low
39.12
Averages
52.09
High
71.73
About UBS
UBS Group AG is a Switzerland-based holding company and conducts its operations through UBS AG and its subsidiaries. The company operates as a wealth manager with focused asset management and investment banking capabilities and a capital-light and cash-generative business model. The Company comprises four business divisions: Global Wealth Management, which provides tailored advice and solutions to its clients around the globe; Personal & Corporate Banking division provides comprehensive financial products and services to private, corporate and institutional clients in Switzerland; Asset Management division offers investment capabilities and styles across all traditional and alternative asset classes, as well as advisory support to institutions; Investment Bank provides investment advice, financial solutions and capital markets access to institutional, corporate and wealth management clients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Poor May Performance: Brent crude has plunged nearly 19% in May, marking its worst month since the Covid-19 pandemic, while West Texas Intermediate prices have dropped 16.5%, indicating concerns over future supply stability.
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- Structural Supply-Demand Tightness: Management highlighted that the gap between supply and demand in the memory market is structural and expected to persist beyond 2026, with key customers only able to meet around 60% of their memory needs, indicating ongoing constraints and future growth potential.
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See More
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See More
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- Strategic Expansion Plans: These appointments reflect UBS's commitment to the South Market, particularly in the context of rapid wealth growth, enhancing customer service and market competitiveness through strengthened leadership.
See More
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- Poor May Performance: Brent crude has plunged nearly 19% in May, marking its worst month since the Covid-19 pandemic, while West Texas Intermediate prices have dropped 16.5%, indicating concerns over future supply stability.
- Transport Disruptions: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely impacted, with Iranian crude loadings in May plummeting to 300,000 barrels per day, down sharply from April's 1.5 million barrels, highlighting the ongoing war's effect on global energy supply.
- Uncertain Market Outlook: Despite hopes for a ceasefire, analysts warn that oil prices are likely to remain between $90 and $100 due to significant infrastructure damage and ongoing security challenges, with persistent skepticism surrounding the negotiations.
See More
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- Software Sector Pressure: The software industry accounts for 19% of private credit collateralized loan obligations, and as growth slows and margins compress, the repayment capacity of these loans is expected to be negatively impacted, adding to market uncertainty.
- Liquidity Crisis: With constrained liquidity, investors are beginning to attempt to withdraw funds, particularly with significant withdrawal requests anticipated in June, which could exert further pressure on the market and lead to more default events.
- Pension Fund Risks: While some large state pension funds continue to maintain investments in private credit, their significant risk exposure could have spillover effects on the broader financial markets, especially given that banks have loaned approximately $300 billion to private credit, potentially putting retail investors at risk.
See More
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- De-Dollarization Trend: More than a quarter of family offices plan to reduce their holdings in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, indicating a declining confidence in the dollar's reserve role, which further encourages a preference for currencies like the Swiss franc and euro.
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See More
