Federal Reserve Faces Rising Recession Risks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Rising Recession Expectations: Moody's Analytics has raised its recession probability for the next 12 months to 48.6%, significantly above the normal expectation of around 20%, indicating heightened uncertainty in economic outlook due to escalating geopolitical risks.
- Impact of Rising Oil Prices: Oil prices have surged by $1.02, or 35%, over the past month, which could accelerate the onset of a recession, particularly as consumer spending and the labor market face increasing pressures, further exacerbating the risk of economic slowdown.
- Weak Labor Market: The U.S. economy created only 116,000 jobs in 2025, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%, primarily due to a lack of hiring rather than layoffs, highlighting vulnerabilities in the labor market that could negatively impact consumer spending.
- Declining Consumer Confidence: A survey by NerdWallet revealed that 65% of respondents expect a recession within the next 12 months, up 6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a growing pessimism among consumers regarding the economic outlook.
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Analyst Views on GS
Wall Street analysts forecast GS stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 802.890
Low
604.00
Averages
951.45
High
1100
Current: 802.890
Low
604.00
Averages
951.45
High
1100
About GS
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a global financial institution that delivers a range of financial services to a large and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and individuals. Its segments include Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management and Platform Solutions. The Global Banking & Markets segment offers a range of services, including financing, advisory services, risk distribution, and hedging for its institutional and corporate clients. It facilitates client transactions and makes markets in fixed income, equity, currency and commodity products. The Asset & Wealth Management segment manages assets and offers investment products across all asset classes to a diverse set of clients. It also provides investing and wealth advisory solutions. The Platform Solutions segment includes consumer platforms, such as partnerships offering credit cards and point-of-sale financing, and transaction banking and other platform businesses.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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