Fed Rate Hike Expectations Impact Savings Yields
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Inflation Pressure Intensifies: According to AAA, the current national average gasoline price stands at $4.459 per gallon, up from $3.174 a year ago, reflecting the ongoing impact of the Iran war on fuel prices, which exacerbates consumer living costs.
- Rate Expectation Shifts: The CME Group's FedWatch indicates nearly a 50% likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December, causing savers to feel uneasy about future rate trends, which impacts yields on cash instruments.
- Rising Bank Deposit Rates: Bread Financial has raised its 1-year CD annual percentage yield to 4%, an increase of 15 basis points from the previous week, driven by loan growth and rate expectations, attracting more savers' attention.
- Short-Term Cash Investment Appeal: While current CD rates, such as Popular Direct's 12-month CD offering 4.11%, are attractive, analysts warn that these yields may not keep pace with inflation long-term and could adjust upon maturity, affecting investors' return expectations.
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Analyst Views on BFH
Wall Street analysts forecast BFH stock price to fall
12 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
4 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 88.460
Low
64.00
Averages
83.25
High
98.00
Current: 88.460
Low
64.00
Averages
83.25
High
98.00
About BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. is a tech-forward financial services company which is engaged in providing simple, personalized payment, lending, and saving solutions. The Company's product offerings consist of co-brand and private label credit card programs with retailers and other brand partners; direct-to-consumer (DTC); proprietary general purpose credit cards; Bread Pay products; and Bread Savings products. Its payment solutions, including Bread Financial general purpose credit cards and savings products. Its private label credit cards are partner-branded credit cards used by consumers for the purchase of goods and services from that partner. Bread Pay is its payment technology solution for pay-over-time products. The Company's products are supported by various services and capabilities, including risk management, underwriting, and funding services; credit card and other loan processing and servicing; fraud prevention; marketing, and data and analytics; and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Impact Savings Yields
- Inflation Pressure Intensifies: According to AAA, the current national average gasoline price stands at $4.459 per gallon, up from $3.174 a year ago, reflecting the ongoing impact of the Iran war on fuel prices, which exacerbates consumer living costs.
- Rate Expectation Shifts: The CME Group's FedWatch indicates nearly a 50% likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December, causing savers to feel uneasy about future rate trends, which impacts yields on cash instruments.
- Rising Bank Deposit Rates: Bread Financial has raised its 1-year CD annual percentage yield to 4%, an increase of 15 basis points from the previous week, driven by loan growth and rate expectations, attracting more savers' attention.
- Short-Term Cash Investment Appeal: While current CD rates, such as Popular Direct's 12-month CD offering 4.11%, are attractive, analysts warn that these yields may not keep pace with inflation long-term and could adjust upon maturity, affecting investors' return expectations.
See More
Bread Financial Provides Performance Update
- Improved Loss Rate: As of April 2026, Bread Financial's net principal loss rate decreased to 7.09% from 7.85% in 2025, indicating effective risk management and enhancing investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Declining Delinquency Rate: The delinquency rate fell to 5.34% as of April 2026, down from 5.73% in 2025, reflecting positive progress in credit quality management, which helps improve customer satisfaction and reduce potential losses.
- Loan Growth: Total credit card and other loans reached $18.123 billion as of April 2026, a 2.0% increase from $17.721 billion in 2025, showcasing the company's strong performance amid recovering market demand and further solidifying its market position.
- Expanded Customer Base: Bread Financial has continued to attract new customers over the past year, particularly in travel, entertainment, and health & beauty sectors, by offering personalized payment and lending solutions, thereby strengthening partnerships with well-known brands and driving sustainable business growth.
See More
Brooktree Capital Management Sells Shares of Bread Financial Holdings
- Share Reduction Details: Brooktree Capital Management sold 63,530 shares of Bread Financial Holdings in Q1 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $4.68 million, reducing its stake to 5.85% of the fund's AUM.
- Stock Performance: As of May 5, 2026, Bread Financial's shares were priced at $85.09, reflecting a 76.5% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 48.03 percentage points, indicating strong market performance.
- Financial Health: The company reported a net income of $181 million in Q1, up $43 million year-over-year, with diluted earnings per share rising 50% to $4.15, showcasing sustained profitability improvements.
- Credit Metrics Improvement: Bread's net loss rate decreased from 8.16% to 7.33% year-over-year, with delinquency rates improving by 34 basis points, indicating enhanced credit quality, while also repurchasing 3.5 million shares during the quarter to boost shareholder value.
See More
Bread Financial Prices Public Offering of 4.8 Million Preferred Shares
- Offering Size: Bread Financial announced a public offering of 4.8 million preferred shares at $25 each, expecting approximately $115.32 million in net proceeds after underwriting discounts and expenses, which will strengthen the company's capital base for future growth.
- Underwriting Arrangement: The offering is underwritten by Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital Markets, UBS Securities, Wells Fargo Securities, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, with underwriters granted an option to purchase an additional 720,000 shares within 30 days, indicating strong market demand for the stock.
- Use of Proceeds: The company intends to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including lending to its subsidiary Comenity Capital Bank and share repurchases, thereby enhancing its financial flexibility and supporting business expansion.
- Listing Plans: Bread Financial expects to list these preferred shares on the New York Stock Exchange, which will further enhance its market visibility and investor confidence, positioning the company more favorably in the competitive financial services market.
See More
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Some Banks Cut Yields
- Stable Rate Policy: The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 3.5%-3.75% is generally positive for savers; however, some banks have still lowered their high-yield savings account rates, indicating competitive pressures in the market.
- Yield Cuts by Banks: According to a BTIG report, three major banks—Capital One, Synchrony, and Marcus by Goldman Sachs—have recently reduced their annual percentage yields, following a cut by Ally Financial, reflecting adjustments in banking strategies under yield pressure.
- Shifting Market Expectations: While analysts believe the Fed will not cut rates, bank earnings reports indicate robust consumer spending and lending in the U.S., suggesting that growth expectations remain intact, which could influence future rate decisions.
- Deposit Product Yield Comparison: Despite some banks lowering rates, Bread Financial and LendingClub maintain a 4% yield, but they are expected to follow suit with cuts, highlighting the ongoing competition for high-yield deposit products in the market.
See More
Bread Financial Reports Strong Q1 2026 Results with Loan Growth
- Loan Growth Recovery: Bread Financial reported a return to loan growth in Q1 2026, with average loans increasing by 1% to $18.3 billion and end-of-period loans rising by 2% to $18.1 billion, indicating a positive trend in the credit market that enhances future profitability expectations.
- Strong Credit Sales: The company achieved $6.5 billion in credit sales during the first quarter, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase, which not only highlights the successful launch of new brand partnerships but also indicates positive progress in expanding market share.
- Robust Financial Performance: Bread Financial generated a net income of $181 million with diluted EPS of $4.15, and revenue grew by 5% year-over-year, primarily due to pricing changes and lower interest expenses, showcasing effective strategies in cost control and revenue growth.
- Cautious Future Outlook: While management maintains an unchanged outlook for 2026, expecting low single-digit growth in loans and revenue, they express caution regarding macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly concerning potential impacts from fuel prices and trade policies.
See More
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Impact Savings Yields
- Inflation Pressure Intensifies: According to AAA, the current national average gasoline price stands at $4.459 per gallon, up from $3.174 a year ago, reflecting the ongoing impact of the Iran war on fuel prices, which exacerbates consumer living costs.
- Rate Expectation Shifts: The CME Group's FedWatch indicates nearly a 50% likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December, causing savers to feel uneasy about future rate trends, which impacts yields on cash instruments.
- Rising Bank Deposit Rates: Bread Financial has raised its 1-year CD annual percentage yield to 4%, an increase of 15 basis points from the previous week, driven by loan growth and rate expectations, attracting more savers' attention.
- Short-Term Cash Investment Appeal: While current CD rates, such as Popular Direct's 12-month CD offering 4.11%, are attractive, analysts warn that these yields may not keep pace with inflation long-term and could adjust upon maturity, affecting investors' return expectations.
See More
Bread Financial Provides Performance Update
- Improved Loss Rate: As of April 2026, Bread Financial's net principal loss rate decreased to 7.09% from 7.85% in 2025, indicating effective risk management and enhancing investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Declining Delinquency Rate: The delinquency rate fell to 5.34% as of April 2026, down from 5.73% in 2025, reflecting positive progress in credit quality management, which helps improve customer satisfaction and reduce potential losses.
- Loan Growth: Total credit card and other loans reached $18.123 billion as of April 2026, a 2.0% increase from $17.721 billion in 2025, showcasing the company's strong performance amid recovering market demand and further solidifying its market position.
- Expanded Customer Base: Bread Financial has continued to attract new customers over the past year, particularly in travel, entertainment, and health & beauty sectors, by offering personalized payment and lending solutions, thereby strengthening partnerships with well-known brands and driving sustainable business growth.
See More
Brooktree Capital Management Sells Shares of Bread Financial Holdings
- Share Reduction Details: Brooktree Capital Management sold 63,530 shares of Bread Financial Holdings in Q1 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $4.68 million, reducing its stake to 5.85% of the fund's AUM.
- Stock Performance: As of May 5, 2026, Bread Financial's shares were priced at $85.09, reflecting a 76.5% increase over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 48.03 percentage points, indicating strong market performance.
- Financial Health: The company reported a net income of $181 million in Q1, up $43 million year-over-year, with diluted earnings per share rising 50% to $4.15, showcasing sustained profitability improvements.
- Credit Metrics Improvement: Bread's net loss rate decreased from 8.16% to 7.33% year-over-year, with delinquency rates improving by 34 basis points, indicating enhanced credit quality, while also repurchasing 3.5 million shares during the quarter to boost shareholder value.
See More
Bread Financial Prices Public Offering of 4.8 Million Preferred Shares
- Offering Size: Bread Financial announced a public offering of 4.8 million preferred shares at $25 each, expecting approximately $115.32 million in net proceeds after underwriting discounts and expenses, which will strengthen the company's capital base for future growth.
- Underwriting Arrangement: The offering is underwritten by Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital Markets, UBS Securities, Wells Fargo Securities, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, with underwriters granted an option to purchase an additional 720,000 shares within 30 days, indicating strong market demand for the stock.
- Use of Proceeds: The company intends to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including lending to its subsidiary Comenity Capital Bank and share repurchases, thereby enhancing its financial flexibility and supporting business expansion.
- Listing Plans: Bread Financial expects to list these preferred shares on the New York Stock Exchange, which will further enhance its market visibility and investor confidence, positioning the company more favorably in the competitive financial services market.
See More
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Some Banks Cut Yields
- Stable Rate Policy: The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 3.5%-3.75% is generally positive for savers; however, some banks have still lowered their high-yield savings account rates, indicating competitive pressures in the market.
- Yield Cuts by Banks: According to a BTIG report, three major banks—Capital One, Synchrony, and Marcus by Goldman Sachs—have recently reduced their annual percentage yields, following a cut by Ally Financial, reflecting adjustments in banking strategies under yield pressure.
- Shifting Market Expectations: While analysts believe the Fed will not cut rates, bank earnings reports indicate robust consumer spending and lending in the U.S., suggesting that growth expectations remain intact, which could influence future rate decisions.
- Deposit Product Yield Comparison: Despite some banks lowering rates, Bread Financial and LendingClub maintain a 4% yield, but they are expected to follow suit with cuts, highlighting the ongoing competition for high-yield deposit products in the market.
See More
Bread Financial Reports Strong Q1 2026 Results with Loan Growth
- Loan Growth Recovery: Bread Financial reported a return to loan growth in Q1 2026, with average loans increasing by 1% to $18.3 billion and end-of-period loans rising by 2% to $18.1 billion, indicating a positive trend in the credit market that enhances future profitability expectations.
- Strong Credit Sales: The company achieved $6.5 billion in credit sales during the first quarter, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase, which not only highlights the successful launch of new brand partnerships but also indicates positive progress in expanding market share.
- Robust Financial Performance: Bread Financial generated a net income of $181 million with diluted EPS of $4.15, and revenue grew by 5% year-over-year, primarily due to pricing changes and lower interest expenses, showcasing effective strategies in cost control and revenue growth.
- Cautious Future Outlook: While management maintains an unchanged outlook for 2026, expecting low single-digit growth in loans and revenue, they express caution regarding macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly concerning potential impacts from fuel prices and trade policies.
See More
