ArcelorMittal Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 05 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MT?
Source: seekingalpha
- Safety Performance Improvement: CEO Aditya Mittal highlighted that all key safety KPIs have improved, particularly in fatality prevention, indicating ongoing progress in safety management that enhances employee morale and company reputation.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported $6.5 billion in EBITDA for 2025, equivalent to $121 EBITDA per tonne shipped, nearly double the margins achieved at previous cyclical lows, reflecting structural improvements in ArcelorMittal's earnings power and boosting investor confidence.
- Strategic Investment Returns: Strategic projects contributed $0.7 billion in EBITDA, driven by record performance in Liberia and renewable energy initiatives in India, demonstrating the company's growth potential in emerging markets and the effectiveness of its sustainability strategy.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: CFO Genuino Christino projected increased steel production and shipments in 2026, supported by operational improvements and trade protections, indicating the company's ability to continue generating positive free cash flows in the coming years.
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Analyst Views on MT
Wall Street analysts forecast MT stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 61.590
Low
39.00
Averages
44.67
High
49.00
Current: 61.590
Low
39.00
Averages
44.67
High
49.00
About MT
ArcelorMittal SA is a Luxembourg-based holding company. The Company, via its subsidiaries, owns and operates steel, iron ore manufacturing and coal mining facilities in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. The Company is organized in five operating segments: NAFTA; Brazil; Europe; Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (ACIS), and Mining. The NAFTA, Brazil, Europe, and ACIS segments produce flat, long, and tubular products including slabs, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, coated steel products, among others. The Mining segment provides steel operations and comprises all mines owned by the Company in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Contract Termination Impact: The company ended a five-year steel slab contract with ArcelorMittal USA in 2025 due to unprofitability driven by tariff-induced price gaps, a decision that will affect future revenue streams significantly.
- Executive Sell-off Triggers Panic: CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares at an average price of $12.42 on February 11, and while executive sales may be for tax planning, the magnitude of the sale during a stock slump has unsettled investors.
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See More
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- Stock Price Plunge: Following the disappointing earnings report, Cleveland-Cliffs' stock plummeted 32.5% at its lowest point this week, severely undermining investor confidence, particularly after CEO Lourenco Goncalves sold three million shares, which intensified market jitters.
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See More
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- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded ArcelorMittal's rating from Hold to Buy, raising the price target from €44 to €52, indicating analysts' confidence in the company's market performance driven by favorable policy changes.
- Import Tariff Changes: By July 2026, the EU is expected to reduce import tariff rate quotas by 50% and double tariffs on out-of-quota volumes to 50%, which could lead to a reduction of 10 million tons in EU steel imports, benefiting ArcelorMittal as the largest steel producer in the region.
- Capacity Recovery Plan: ArcelorMittal stated it can quickly bring idle capacity back online without significant capital expenditures, expecting to add 1 million tons of electric arc furnace production in 2026 and further solidifying its market share by re-rolling imported slabs from Brazil.
See More
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- Electrical Steel Production Expansion: Additionally, the company is investing €500 million in a new electrical steel production unit in Dunkirk, further diversifying its product offerings in Europe and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Positive Market Reaction: The stock is currently trading at $63.08, 15.4% above its 20-day simple moving average and has surged 120.77% over the past 12 months, indicating strong short-term momentum that has attracted investor interest.
- Optimistic Analyst Ratings: ArcelorMittal's stock carries a 'Buy' rating with an average price target of $38.56; despite a current P/E ratio of 15.1x, analysts are optimistic about its growth prospects, suggesting that the current valuation is justified.
See More
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- Capacity and Environmental Benefits: The new electric arc furnace will have an annual production capacity of 2 million metric tons of steel, with emissions per ton being three times lower than those from Dunkirk's blast furnaces, significantly enhancing the company's environmental profile and market competitiveness.
- Funding Support Mechanism: The project will be supported by Energy Efficiency Certificates, which are expected to cover half of the total investment, alleviating financial pressure on the company while promoting the achievement of sustainability goals.
- Optimized Policy Environment: The CEO of ArcelorMittal stated that the new tariff-rate quota will help curb unfair imports, while the implementation of the CBAM will create a more level playing field for European producers, further solidifying the company's market position.
See More
