Amazon’s premium beauty push may be a buffer against Trump's tariffs
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
0mins
Should l Buy ULTA?
Source: Newsfilter
Amazon's Strategy for Prime Day: Amazon is leveraging its Premium Beauty category to mitigate the impact of tariffs on sales during Prime Day, which runs from July 8 to July 11. The company has seen significant growth in high-margin cosmetics, attracting luxury brands and older shoppers while competing with retailers like Sephora and Ulta.
Growth of Amazon Premium Beauty: Sales in Amazon Premium Beauty surged nearly 20% to $15 billion between April 2024 and April 2025, outpacing overall beauty product growth. The invite-only model allows brands to maintain control over pricing and inventory, enhancing Amazon's appeal to premium brands and consumers.
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Analyst Views on ULTA
Wall Street analysts forecast ULTA stock price to fall
22 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 667.180
Low
450.00
Averages
647.83
High
780.00
Current: 667.180
Low
450.00
Averages
647.83
High
780.00
About ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a specialty United States beauty retailer and the premier beauty destination for cosmetics, fragrance, skincare products, haircare products and salon services. The Company operates approximately 1,451 retail stores across 50 states and distributes products through its Website, which includes a collection of tips, tutorials, and social content. The Company’s business includes a differentiated assortment of approximately 29,000 beauty products across a variety of categories and price points, as well as a variety of beauty services, including salon services, in more than 1,400 stores predominantly located in convenient, high-traffic locations. It also offers digital experiences delivered through its Website, Ulta.com, and its mobile applications. The Company’s brands include Ulta Beauty Collection, about-face, Ariana Grande, CHANEL, FENTY BEAUTY by Rihanna, It Cosmetics, LolaVie, OUAI, PAT McGRATH LABS, Tula, and NYX Professional Makeup.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Diverse Product Offering: The new store will feature a wide range of products including cosmetics, skincare, and fragrances from well-known brands such as Ulta Beauty Collection and Morphe, aiming to meet the diverse beauty needs of UAE consumers.
- Launch Celebration Events: The opening day will feature special events with regional celebrities like Nadine Njeim, and activities will continue until February 7, including product demonstrations and showcases of local entrepreneurs, enhancing brand visibility.
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See More
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- CPI Expectations: The consumer price index, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year rise of 2.5%, which could significantly influence market sentiment and lead investors to reassess their risk appetite.
- Moderna Stock Fluctuations: Moderna's shares have surged 50% over the past three months, closing at $40.11 on Thursday, although this remains significantly lower than the pandemic peak of $497, indicating ongoing volatility in biotech stocks that investors are closely monitoring.
- Wendy's Stock Decline: Wendy's shares fell 7.7% on Thursday, down 55% from their 52-week high, highlighting the persistent pressures facing the fast-food industry, which may impact its future market performance.
- Retail Sector Dynamics: The Amplify Online Retail ETF dropped nearly 4% on Thursday, now down 19.5% from its September high, reflecting weakness in the retail market, especially after experiencing five consecutive weeks of declines, which could negatively affect overall consumer confidence.
See More
Ulta Beauty's Bullish Outlook, Arista Networks Faces Challenges
- Ulta Beauty Growth Potential: Ulta Beauty's stock has surged approximately 70% over the past 12 months, with its diverse product line ranging from mass-market to luxury brands attracting more consumers and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Increased Consumer Engagement: By boosting foot traffic, Ulta is driving organic sales growth, with retail sales up 3% year-over-year, indicating strong consumer demand for its products.
- Loyalty Program as Growth Driver: Ulta's loyalty program effectively attracts customers, increasing their shopping frequency and thereby enhancing market share and shareholder returns.
- Arista Networks Risks Emerging: Arista faces margin compression and high customer concentration issues; despite a backlog of $18.5 billion in orders, intense competition threatens its profitability.
See More
e.l.f. Beauty Surprises with Q3 Results, Stock Reversal Presents Buying Opportunity
- Significant Sales Growth: e.l.f. Beauty reported a 38% year-over-year sales increase in Q3 2023, reaching $489.5 million, significantly exceeding the analyst consensus of $460 million, indicating robust market demand and brand appeal.
- Enhanced Profitability: Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 68% from $0.74 to $1.24, surpassing the analyst expectation of $0.72, reflecting the company's success in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Market Share Expansion: The e.l.f. brand gained 130 basis points in the mass cosmetics market, with U.S. and international revenues rising 36% and 44% respectively, despite weak consumption in the U.K., showcasing the brand's global appeal.
- Optimistic Outlook: The company raised its fiscal 2026 sales guidance to a growth range of 22% to 33%, expecting Rhode to contribute $260 million to $265 million in revenue, demonstrating confidence in future growth and strategic positioning.
See More
e.l.f. Beauty Reports Strong Q3 Results Exceeding Expectations
- Significant Sales Growth: e.l.f. Beauty's Q3 sales soared 38% year-over-year to $489.5 million, easily surpassing the analyst consensus of $460 million, indicating strong market demand and brand appeal.
- Improved Profitability: Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 68% from $0.74 to $1.24, exceeding the analyst estimate of $0.72, reflecting the company's success in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Rhode Brand Contribution: The Rhode brand contributed $128 million in revenue during the quarter, bolstered by its successful launch at Sephora, further solidifying e.l.f.'s position in the rapidly growing beauty market.
- Optimistic Outlook: e.l.f. raised its fiscal 2026 sales guidance to an increase of 22% to 33%, with Rhode expected to contribute $260 million to $265 million in revenue, demonstrating the company's confidence in future growth and strategic positioning.
See More
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- Market Share Growth: e.l.f. Beauty has successfully captured market share in the mass cosmetics industry through a fast-follower strategy and influencer marketing, particularly leveraging strong distribution networks at Target and Ulta Beauty, driving U.S. consumption growth close to 12%.
- Acquisition Strategy: The recent acquisition of premium skincare brand Rhode, which achieved over $200 million in sales in less than three years, is expected to further drive sales growth through increased distribution and product promotion, especially in LVMH's Sephora stores.
- International Expansion Opportunities: Although e.l.f. is still in the early stages of international expansion, its global growth rate is around 8%, indicating strong international demand, with future potential to enhance market share by increasing shelf space at Walmart.
- Attractive Stock Valuation: With e.l.f. stock down about 40% from its highs, it trades at a forward P/E ratio of 26.5 and a PEG ratio below 0.5, indicating undervaluation; combined with future growth opportunities, now is an excellent time to buy the stock.
See More
Ulta Beauty Opens First Store in UAE, Plans Expansion to Dubai and Jeddah by 2026
- UAE Store Opening: Ulta Beauty announced its first store opening at Mall of the Emirates on January 29, 2026, marking a significant entry into the Middle Eastern market, which is expected to attract a large local customer base.
- Diverse Product Offering: The new store will feature a wide range of products including cosmetics, skincare, and fragrances from well-known brands such as Ulta Beauty Collection and Morphe, aiming to meet the diverse beauty needs of UAE consumers.
- Launch Celebration Events: The opening day will feature special events with regional celebrities like Nadine Njeim, and activities will continue until February 7, including product demonstrations and showcases of local entrepreneurs, enhancing brand visibility.
- Strategic Expansion Plans: Following the UAE store launch, Ulta Beauty plans to expand to Dubai Mall and Red Sea Mall in Jeddah in 2026, demonstrating its long-term commitment and growth potential in the Middle Eastern market.
See More
