2026 Midterm Election Landscape Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 06 2026
0mins
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Voter Sentiment Decline: According to Raymond James analysis, President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 38%, which typically translates to losses in at least one chamber during midterm elections, reflecting voter concerns over economic and geopolitical pressures.
- Democratic Advantage Emerges: The opposition currently holds a 7.6% lead in the generic congressional ballot, and despite potential limitations from state redistricting, analysis indicates an 85% probability that Democrats will reclaim lower-chamber leadership.
- Stable Senate Competition: With seven core battleground states voting Republican in 2024, Senate election outcomes are closely tied to presidential results, presenting significant challenges for Democrats to alter the balance of power in this chamber.
- Future Government Structure Predictions: The analysis forecasts a 50% probability of a divided government with a Democratic House and Republican Senate, increasing the risk of budget shutdowns, while a full Democratic sweep has a 35% probability, likely freezing tax initiatives.
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Analyst Views on RJF
Wall Street analysts forecast RJF stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 158.770
Low
176.00
Averages
184.00
High
196.00
Current: 158.770
Low
176.00
Averages
184.00
High
196.00
About RJF
Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a diversified financial services company that provides services to individuals, corporations and municipalities. The Company's segments include Private Client Group (PCG), Capital Markets, Asset Management, Bank and Other. PCG segment provides financial planning, investment advisory, and securities transaction services to clients through financial advisors. Capital Markets segment conducts investment banking, institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients. Bank segment includes Raymond James Bank, a Florida-chartered state member bank, and TriState Capital Bank, a Pennsylvania-chartered state member bank. Other segment includes corporate cash balances and its private equity investments.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Business Expansion: The duo will co-lead the firm alongside founder Jeffrey Berenson, with plans to expand the technology advisory franchise while continuing direct investments alongside clients and sponsors, thereby increasing the firm's market share in the tech sector.
- Market Trend: More boutique investment banks are diversifying by combining M&A services with merchant banking and principal investing to address challenges posed by volatile deal activity and increasing competition, with Berenson's model exemplifying this trend.
- Industry Impact: With over 20 years of M&A and capital raising experience in software, fintech, and internet sectors, Ryan and Steele's addition is expected to significantly bolster Berenson's influence in these key areas, attracting more attention from companies and financial sponsors.
See More
2026 Midterm Election Landscape Analysis
- Voter Sentiment Decline: According to Raymond James analysis, President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 38%, which typically translates to losses in at least one chamber during midterm elections, reflecting voter concerns over economic and geopolitical pressures.
- Democratic Advantage Emerges: The opposition currently holds a 7.6% lead in the generic congressional ballot, and despite potential limitations from state redistricting, analysis indicates an 85% probability that Democrats will reclaim lower-chamber leadership.
- Stable Senate Competition: With seven core battleground states voting Republican in 2024, Senate election outcomes are closely tied to presidential results, presenting significant challenges for Democrats to alter the balance of power in this chamber.
- Future Government Structure Predictions: The analysis forecasts a 50% probability of a divided government with a Democratic House and Republican Senate, increasing the risk of budget shutdowns, while a full Democratic sweep has a 35% probability, likely freezing tax initiatives.
See More
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- Private Client Group Performance: The Private Client Group's fee-based account assets surged 28% year-over-year to $1.12 trillion, showcasing the company's appeal among high-net-worth clients and an increase in market share.
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See More
Tech Bankers Join Berenson & Co. to Expand M&A Advisory
- Executive Move: Brendan Ryan and Jon Steele are set to officially join Berenson & Co. in August after acquiring a 50% stake, aiming to pivot the firm towards M&A advisory to enhance its competitiveness in technology deals and private market opportunities.
- Business Expansion: The duo will co-lead the firm alongside founder Jeffrey Berenson, with plans to expand the technology advisory franchise while continuing direct investments alongside clients and sponsors, thereby increasing the firm's market share in the tech sector.
- Market Trend: More boutique investment banks are diversifying by combining M&A services with merchant banking and principal investing to address challenges posed by volatile deal activity and increasing competition, with Berenson's model exemplifying this trend.
- Industry Impact: With over 20 years of M&A and capital raising experience in software, fintech, and internet sectors, Ryan and Steele's addition is expected to significantly bolster Berenson's influence in these key areas, attracting more attention from companies and financial sponsors.
See More
2026 Midterm Election Landscape Analysis
- Voter Sentiment Decline: According to Raymond James analysis, President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 38%, which typically translates to losses in at least one chamber during midterm elections, reflecting voter concerns over economic and geopolitical pressures.
- Democratic Advantage Emerges: The opposition currently holds a 7.6% lead in the generic congressional ballot, and despite potential limitations from state redistricting, analysis indicates an 85% probability that Democrats will reclaim lower-chamber leadership.
- Stable Senate Competition: With seven core battleground states voting Republican in 2024, Senate election outcomes are closely tied to presidential results, presenting significant challenges for Democrats to alter the balance of power in this chamber.
- Future Government Structure Predictions: The analysis forecasts a 50% probability of a divided government with a Democratic House and Republican Senate, increasing the risk of budget shutdowns, while a full Democratic sweep has a 35% probability, likely freezing tax initiatives.
See More
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- Price Target Increase: Raymond James raised Micron's price target from $530 to $1,100 while maintaining an Outperform rating, reflecting confidence in the company's upcoming earnings report on June 24 and indicating optimistic market expectations for its future performance.
- Growing Demand: The demand for high-bandwidth memory and other advanced chips has significantly increased as data centers add more AI systems, providing strong long-term customer demand support for Micron and positioning the company favorably in one of the strongest AI-related memory cycles in years.
- Supply Constraints: Despite strong demand, supply constraints could limit near-term revenue upside, indicating that the market must remain vigilant regarding supply chain stability to ensure continued revenue growth.
- Margin Pressure: As pricing momentum may slow, Micron's gross margins could ease from peak levels, reminding investors to remain cautious amid optimism to navigate potential market fluctuations.
See More
Winners and Losers in the S&P 500
- Challenges for Cummins: Cummins (CMI), with a market cap of $92.16 billion, has seen flat sales over the past two years, indicating a lack of growth, while its gross margin of 24.7% reflects high production costs that impact profitability, and declining returns on capital suggest its historical profit centers are aging.
- Masco's Growth Struggles: Masco (MAS), valued at $13.85 billion, has shown no organic revenue growth over the past two years, with projected sales growth of only 1.7% for the next 12 months, indicating sluggish demand, while shrinking returns on capital suggest increasing competition is eroding profitability, with a stock price of $69.87 implying a forward P/E ratio of 15.9.
- Raymond James Stands Out: Raymond James (RJF), with a market cap of $28.34 billion, has achieved an annual revenue growth of 11.6% over the last five years, surpassing sector averages, and share repurchases have driven annual earnings per share growth of 16.2%, showcasing management's ability to invest in profitable ventures, trading at $145.40 per share with a forward P/E of 12.1.
- Market Trends Analysis: While the S&P 500 includes industry leaders, not all stocks are performing well, prompting investors to be cautious about the potential risks associated with Cummins and Masco, while Raymond James emerges as a stock to watch, demonstrating strong fundamentals and market momentum.
See More
Analysts Raise Price Target for Disney Amid Strong Q2 Results
- Strong Earnings Beat: On May 7, Raymond James raised the price target for The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) from $115 to $119, indicating that the company delivered better-than-expected Q2 results and slightly increased FY26 EPS guidance to 12% growth, which bolsters market confidence in its future performance.
- Double-Digit Growth Outlook: Analysts anticipate a double-digit EPS CAGR for FY26-FY27, supported by Disney's strong franchise IP, resilient sports exposure, scaled streaming ecosystem, and robust cash flows from Parks and Experiences, highlighting the company's diverse revenue streams.
- Streaming as Growth Driver: While Experiences remain the largest profit contributor, analysts noted that growth in streaming is increasingly driving operating income, showcasing Disney's successful diversification of its revenue sources and adaptation to changing market dynamics.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: With moderating macro concerns, analysts are increasingly optimistic about the FY26 outlook for the second half, believing that Disney's business model and market positioning will continue to provide substantial growth opportunities.
See More
Raymond James Financial Reports Record Operating Data for April 2026
- Client Asset Growth: Raymond James Financial reported client assets under administration reaching $1.87 trillion in April 2026, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase and a 6% month-over-month rise, indicating strong market performance and client confidence.
- Private Client Group Performance: The Private Client Group's fee-based account assets surged 28% year-over-year to $1.12 trillion, showcasing the company's appeal among high-net-worth clients and an increase in market share.
- Financial Assets Management: Financial assets under management rose 22% to $298.6 billion, highlighting the company's robust growth potential in asset management, despite flat cash sweep balances year-over-year.
- Future Outlook: While investment banking pipelines and client activity remain strong, CEO Paul Shoukry noted that deal closings may face timing uncertainties, which could impact future performance.
See More
