Bitcoin Market Cycle Significantly Weaker Than Previous Cycles

Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert

Source: Coinmarketcap

Updated: 2 days ago

Should l Buy BTC?

Cycle Performance: According to Alex Thorn from Galaxy, the current Bitcoin market cycle is significantly weaker than those in 2012, 2016, and 2020, with reduced volatility and upside potential indicating a shift in market dynamics.
Price Fluctuation Analysis: Following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $125,000 on October 5, 2025, which is only a 97% increase from the halving price of $63,000, substantially lower than previous cycles' gains.
Volatility Index Changes: The current cycle's 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index peaked at just 3.11%, compared to 9.64% in 2020, suggesting a significant decline in price volatility, potentially influenced by factors beyond traditional halving cycle theories.
Market Expectations and Future Outlook: Despite the poor performance of the current cycle, Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, believes Bitcoin is nearing a bottom and expects prices to gradually rise again in 2026, reflecting cautious optimism in the market.

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Technical Analysis for BTC

Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC). As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Neutral technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 7 technical signals, shows that 4 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.

Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status. Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the crypto.

Support, Resistance & Moving Averages. From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.

Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot Points	R1	R2	R3
Classic	62466.973	66516.982	71074.663	75124.672	79682.353	83732.362	88290.043
Fibonacci	66516.982	69805.119	71836.534	75124.672	78412.809	80444.224	83732.362

About BTC

Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009.Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use.

About the author

Ohris M. Greyoon

Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.

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