AFL Should I Buy
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Aflac Inc is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term horizon. While the company has shown some positive developments, such as strong sales growth in Japan and a dividend increase, the recent financial performance, insider selling, and mixed analyst sentiment suggest caution. The technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish, but the lack of strong trading signals and the absence of recent Congress trading data further support a hold recommendation.
The technical indicators show a slightly bullish trend. The MACD is above 0 and positively contracting, the RSI is neutral at 62.332, and the moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). Key support and resistance levels are at S1: 110.783 and R1: 118.163. However, the stock's recent price change (-0.32% in the regular market and -0.48% post-market) indicates short-term weakness.
Strong sales growth in Japan (15.7%) and overall (16%) in Q4
Dividend increase of 5.2% for Q1
Significant share repurchase program ($3.5 billion in 2025).
Investment in AI and technology for operational efficiency.
Revenue (-9.94% YoY), net income (-27.50% YoY), and EPS (-22.81% YoY) declined in Q4
Insiders are selling shares, with a 305.56% increase in selling activity over the last month.
Analysts have lowered price targets, with mixed ratings ranging from Hold to Underperform.
A cautious market outlook in Japan, with a projected 1%-2% decline in underlying earned premiums for 2026.
In Q4 2025, Aflac's revenue dropped to $4.87 billion (-9.94% YoY), net income fell to $1.38 billion (-27.50% YoY), and EPS declined to $2.64 (-22.81% YoY). Despite these declines, the company increased its dividend and repurchased shares, reflecting shareholder-friendly actions.
Analysts have mixed views on Aflac. Recent ratings include Hold, Equal Weight, Buy, and Underperform. Price targets range from $100 to $120, with some firms expressing concerns about limited sales growth and macroeconomic headwinds, while others highlight strong balance sheets and favorable operating results.
