AFL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AFL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AFL sees a -1.66% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.18% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.06%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AFL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
5.40B
43.01%
83.21%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
40.44%
353.36%
739.00%
Net Margin
35.20%
396.47%
-1217.46%
EPS
3.42
643.48%
-2111.76%
No Data Available
AFL Earnings Analysis
Aflac Inc Corporation (AFL.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Earnings Per Share Growth: Net earnings per diluted share increased by 23.8% to $9.63, while adjusted earnings per diluted share rose by 15.7% to $7.21, indicating strong overall financial performance for the year.
Record Profit Margin Achievement: Aflac Japan achieved a record 36% pretax profit margin in 2024, alongside a 15.5% increase in pretax adjusted earnings, showcasing robust operational efficiency.
Premium Persistency and Growth: The premium persistency rate in Aflac Japan remained high at 93.4%, with a 5.6% year-over-year sales increase, reflecting strong customer retention and growth.
Premium Growth and Engagement: Aflac U.S. reported a 2.7% increase in net earned premiums and a 70 basis point improvement in premium persistency to 79.3%, demonstrating effective product value communication and customer engagement.
Shareholder Value Commitment: Aflac returned $3.9 billion to shareholders in 2024 through share repurchases and dividends, maintaining a commitment to shareholder value with 42 consecutive years of dividend growth.
Negative
Japan Segment Revenue Decline: Net term premiums for the Japan segment declined by 5.4%, primarily due to a 7.2 billion yen negative impact from an internal cancer reinsurance transaction and a 4.4 billion yen impact from paid-up policies, indicating significant revenue pressure in this segment.
U.S. Sales Decline: In the U.S. segment, sales were lower than expected in the fourth quarter, leading to a 1% decline in annual sales, reflecting challenges in maintaining growth momentum in a competitive market.
U.S. Segment Benefit Ratio Increase: The total benefit ratio for the U.S. segment increased to 46.3%, which is 170 basis points higher than the previous year, driven by lower remeasurement gains, indicating rising costs and potential profitability concerns.
Commercial Real Estate Challenges: Aflac's commercial real estate portfolio continues to face challenges, with a $40 million increase in CECL reserves due to distressed property valuations, highlighting ongoing risks in this investment area.
Expense Ratio Impact: The expense ratio in the U.S. segment was reported at 40.3% for the quarter, reflecting increased costs associated with growth initiatives, which could pressure margins moving forward.
AFL FAQs
How does AFL typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is Aflac Inc (AFL) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
AFL Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Aflac Q4 2024 misses EPS forecast, stock drops
AFL.N
0.39%Positive
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate a generally positive outlook. Aflac showed strong financial performance with significant EPS growth and a record pretax profit margin in Japan. The company maintained strong dividend growth and share repurchases, which are positive for shareholder returns. Despite some concerns about the competitive environment and expense ratios, management's optimism about sales recovery and new product launches in Japan supports a positive sentiment. The guidance adjustments are not overly negative, and the company's financial health remains robust, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
