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01/10 16:57
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call reveals several challenges including supply chain issues, negative free cash flow, and a net loss despite improved EBITDA. The Q&A section highlights management's unclear responses on critical issues like cash flow impacts and LNG project timelines, raising concerns. Despite some positive elements like increased production and reduced lifting costs, the lack of a share buyback program and uncertainties in guidance due to Brent price fluctuations contribute to a negative sentiment. Additionally, the negative free cash flow and high net debt are worrying factors, leading to a likely negative stock price reaction.
Adjusted EBITDA $1.24 billion, up 48% sequentially; increase due to higher fuel prices and operational efficiency, despite negative impact from mature fields.
Revenue $4.61 billion, up 7% year-over-year but down 3% sequentially; growth driven by shale activity and higher local fuel prices, offset by lower diesel demand and jet fuel sales discontinuation.
Net Result Loss of $10 million, improved from a loss of $284 million in Q4; higher adjusted EBITDA and lower one-off costs from mature fields contributed to the improvement.
CapEx $1.21 billion, down 8% sequentially but up 4% year-over-year; decrease due to higher CapEx in Q4 and increase in shale operations.
Free Cash Flow Negative $957 million; impacted by mature fields and acquisition costs, including $336 million from mature fields and $211 million for Sierra Chata acquisition.
Net Debt $8.3 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 1.8x; increase due to free cash flow impact and debt issuance.
Hydrocarbon Production 552,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 5% year-over-year; growth driven by shale contributions.
Crude Oil Production 270,000 barrels per day, up 6% year-over-year; increase primarily from shale expansion.
Lifting Costs $15.3 per barrel of oil equivalent, down 12% sequentially; reduction due to divestment of mature fields.
Refinery Utilization 94%, up 5% sequentially; higher processing levels enabled inventory accumulation before maintenance.
Market Share 56%; maintained historical levels despite price normalization.
Refining Margin $14.3 per barrel, up 28% sequentially; boosted by operational efficiency measures.
Adjusted EBITDA: Recorded a strong level of adjusted EBITDA of $1.24 billion, marking a significant sequential growth of 48%.
Shale Oil Production: Produced 31% more shale oil than Q1 last year, now representing 55% of total oil production.
Refinery Utilization: Achieved a record high refinery utilization of 94% with a technical capacity of 338,000 barrels per day.
Real-time Intelligence Center: Inaugurated the first real-time intelligence center for the downstream segment in La Plata refinery.
LNG Projects: Signed MOU with Southern Energy for a 20-year agreement for 2.45 MTPA floating LNG HILLI, operational by 2027.
Revenue: Reported revenue of $4.61 billion in Q1, reflecting a 3% sequential decline but a 7% year-over-year increase.
Market Share: Maintained a historical market share of 56% in Q1 despite price normalization.
CapEx: Deployed $1.21 billion in Q1, with 75% allocated to unconventional assets.
Lifting Costs: Total lifting costs reached $15.3 per barrel of oil equivalent, a sequential 12% reduction.
Operational Efficiency Initiatives: Implemented over 100 initiatives to capture efficiency for more than $70 million.
Business Structure Changes: Split Gas & Power segment into LNG and Integrated Gas and New Energies, renamed downstream segment to midstream and downstream.
Digital Transformation MOU: Signed MOU with ENI to analyze the development of upstream transportation and gas liquefaction facility.
Financial Performance Risks: The company reported a negative free cash flow of $957 million in Q1, significantly impacted by the performance of mature fields, which resulted in an adjusted EBITDA loss of $106 million and a one-off cash flow loss of $230 million.
Debt Management Risks: The company added approximately $1 billion of new net debt, increasing its net debt to $8.3 billion, with a net leverage ratio rising from 1.6 to 1.8x.
Operational Risks: Mature fields negatively impacted the company's net results, with a proxy net result indicating a gain of $428 million if these fields were excluded.
Market Demand Risks: Revenue declined by 3% sequentially due to lower seasonal local demand for diesel oil and fertilizers, alongside reduced oil export volume.
Regulatory and Environmental Risks: The company is subject to regulatory approvals for its LNG projects, including environmental impact assessments and export permits, which could affect project timelines.
Supply Chain Risks: The company faces challenges in its supply chain, particularly in securing gas supply agreements for its LNG projects, which are critical for operational success.
Economic Factors: The company’s financial outlook is influenced by fluctuations in Brent crude prices, with guidance based on an annual average of $72.50 per barrel.
Adjusted EBITDA: Recorded a strong level of adjusted EBITDA of $1.24 billion, marking a significant sequential growth of 48%.
Shale Oil Production: Produced 31% more than Q1 last year, now representing 55% of total oil production.
Real-Time Intelligence Center: Inaugurated the first real-time intelligence center for the downstream segment to facilitate data-driven decision making.
LNG Projects: Signed MOU with Southern Energy for a 20-year agreement for 2.45 MTPA floating LNG HILLI, expected operational in 2027.
CapEx Guidance: CapEx guidance for the year ranges from $5 billion to $5.2 billion.
MOU with ENI: Signed MOU with ENI to analyze the development of upstream transportation and gas liquefaction facility.
Oldelval Pipeline Expansion: Successfully completed expansion of Oldelval oil pipeline, increasing capacity from 330,000 to 540,000 barrels per day.
Revenue Guidance: Expecting guidance for the year to range from $5.2 billion to $5.5 billion.
Net Debt: Expect net leverage ratio to reach 1.5 to 1.6x by year-end.
Free Cash Flow: Reported negative free cash flow of $957 million in Q1.
Production Target: Targeting shale oil production of 155,000 barrels per day for 2025.
Lifting Costs: Estimated average lifting costs for 2025 could be $12 per barrel of oil equivalent.
Share Buyback Program: None
The earnings call indicates strong production growth plans, strategic asset acquisitions, and operational efficiencies, which are positive indicators. However, management's lack of clarity on certain issues and working capital losses are concerns. The Q&A session provided additional insights, reinforcing positive sentiment with a focus on shareholder value and operational improvements. Overall, the positive elements outweigh the negatives, suggesting a positive stock price movement in the short term.
The earnings call highlights strong shale production growth, strategic acquisitions in Vaca Muerta, and reduced lifting costs, which are positive indicators. Despite a slight increase in net debt, the company is managing leverage ratios well. The Q&A session reassures profitability from acquisitions and strategic focus on unconventional operations. While management avoided specifics on divestment proceeds, this doesn't overshadow the overall positive outlook. Given these factors, the stock price is likely to experience a positive movement in the short term.
The earnings call reveals several challenges including supply chain issues, negative free cash flow, and a net loss despite improved EBITDA. The Q&A section highlights management's unclear responses on critical issues like cash flow impacts and LNG project timelines, raising concerns. Despite some positive elements like increased production and reduced lifting costs, the lack of a share buyback program and uncertainties in guidance due to Brent price fluctuations contribute to a negative sentiment. Additionally, the negative free cash flow and high net debt are worrying factors, leading to a likely negative stock price reaction.
Despite strong revenue growth and increased oil production, YPF's significant EPS miss, negative free cash flow, and absence of shareholder return plans weigh heavily on sentiment. Challenges like mature fields losses, weather impacts, and regulatory hurdles compound concerns. While management expresses confidence in future targets, vague responses during Q&A and lack of clear guidance further dampen investor confidence. Overall, the financial instability and absence of clear shareholder incentives suggest a negative stock price movement in the short term.
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