Should I Buy YMM? YMM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.170

1 Day change

0.20%

52 Week Range

14.070

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

Given the user's beginner investment knowledge, long-term strategy, and available capital, Full Truck Alliance (YMM) is not a strong buy at the moment. While the company has a shareholder return plan and revenue growth, the technical indicators are bearish, financial performance shows declining profitability, and options data suggests bearish sentiment. It would be prudent to wait for a clearer entry point or improved financial and technical signals.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators for YMM are bearish. The MACD is below zero and negatively contracting, RSI is neutral at 28.001, and moving averages indicate a bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its support level of 9.681, with resistance at 10.468.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The high put-call ratios indicate bearish sentiment, with significantly more put volume compared to call volume. Implied volatility is high at 55.77, with an IV percentile of 77.6, suggesting elevated uncertainty.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

The company announced a $400 million shareholder return plan for fiscal 2026, including dividends and share repurchases, which could attract long-term investors. Revenue increased by 10.78% YoY in Q3 2025.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Analysts have lowered price targets, citing deceleration in growth and seasonal impacts. Options data shows bearish sentiment, and technical indicators are not favorable.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, revenue grew by 10.78% YoY to 3.36 billion RMB. However, net income dropped by 18.05% YoY to 907.28 million RMB, and EPS fell by 20%. Gross margin also declined to 52.2%, down 5.04% YoY, indicating weakening profitability.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts have lowered price targets recently: Barclays to $12, Jefferies to $13, and Morgan Stanley to $14. While Jefferies and Morgan Stanley maintain Buy and Overweight ratings, respectively, the lowered targets reflect concerns about deceleration in growth and seasonal impacts.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast YMM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for YMM is 12.3 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 14.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 10.150

Low

Averages

12.3

High

14.5

Current: 10.150

Low

Averages

12.3

High

14.5

Barclays

Equal Weight

downgrade

$13 -> $12

AI Analysis

2025-11-19

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$13 -> $12

AI Analysis

2025-11-19

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Full Truck Alliance to $12 from $13 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The company's Q3 results were broadly in line with estimates and its Q4 outlook suggests growth in transaction service revenue is set to decelerate, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Jefferies

Buy

maintain

$13

2025-11-17

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$13

2025-11-17

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on Full Truck Alliance to $13 from $13.20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported Q3 results with a revenue beat, but non-GAAP earnings came in below consensus mainly due to higher tax expense. Mid-point of Q4 revenue guidance is ahead of consensus, Jefferies adds. The firm factors in slower fulfilled orders growth in Q4 as CNY happens late next year and trucker sentiment is enhanced following better experience.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for YMM

Unlock Now

YMM Should I Buy

YMM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch