Tesla Q1 Delivery Estimate at 345K, UBS Maintains Sell Rating
Institutional investors and professional traders rely on The Fly to keep up-to-the-second on breaking news in the electric vehicle and clean energy space, as well as which stocks in these sectors that the best analysts on Wall Street are saying to buy and sell.From the hotly-debated high-flier Tesla, Wall Street's newest darling Rivian, traditional-stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GMand Fordto the numerous SPAC-deal makers that have come public in this red-hot space, The Fly has you covered with "Charged," a weekly recap of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.Clickto check out Tesla's recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.TERAFAB PROJECT:Elon Musk's Terafab project will be built in Austin and run by Tesla and SpaceX, Kara Carlson and Loren Grush of Bloomberg. Musk said he plans to start off with an "advanced technology fab" in Austin with the equipment necessary to make chips of any kind and test them, with plans to start with a smaller scale fab before moving to a larger one.DELIVERIES:UBS is calling for Tesla to deliver 345,000 deliveries in Q1, down 18% quarter over quarter but up 2% year over year, below the firm's prior estimate and consensus, with storage deployments of 15.1 GWh, though deliveries are viewed as less influential on the stock than in the past, the firm tells investors in a research note. Share performance appears increasingly driven by narrative and AI-related initiatives such as Robotaxi and Optimus, while the core auto business remains critical to funding growth investments, including about $20B in planned capex this year, UBS says. The firm has a Sell rating and $352 price target on Tesla shares.SERVICE GAPS:Melius Research tells investors in a research note that the TeslaSemi is receiving attention amid rising oil and diesel prices, highlighting the potential value of electrification and energy diversity. However, skepticism remains about Tesla's ability to compete in the trucking market without significant investments in service and parts distribution, areas where incumbents like Paccarand Caterpillardeploy assets and staff far exceeding the manufacturers' own book value, making uptime a critical differentiator that Tesla currently lacks. The firm has a Buy rating and $590 price target on Tesla shares.FAST-CHARGING:Stellantissaid that owners of Dodge, Jeep, Ram, FIAT and Maserati battery-electric vehicles in North America now have greater freedom in how they charge, thanks to expanded access to more than 27,500 TeslaSupercharger locations. Starting today, Stellantis BEV customers can access Tesla V3 and V4 Superchargers using a Free2move Charge North American Charging System-CCS1 DC adapter. The expanded access is a "major milestone" in Stellantis' public charging strategy, delivering broader fast-charging coverage and intuitive tools for managing every charge, the company said.UBER INVESTING IN RIVIAN:Last week, Rivian Automotiveand Uber Technologiesannounced a partnership to help accelerate both companies' autonomous vehicle plans, expecting to deploy 10,000 fully autonomous R2 robotaxis in the first phase of R2 robotaxi deployment. Initial deployments are expected to begin in San Francisco and Miami in 2028 and will expand to 25 cities by 2031, the companies stated. Uber will invest up to $1.25B in Rivian through 2031, subject to the achievement of certain autonomous milestones by specific dates, building towards a scaled, fully-autonomous fleet of Rivian R2 robotaxis, which will be available exclusively through the Uber platform. An initial $300M investment has been committed to following signing, subject to regulatory approval. Should all milestones be achieved, the companies will have deployed thousands of unsupervised Rivian R2 robotaxis across 25 cities in the U.S., Canada, and Europe by the end of 2031.The companies also have the option to negotiate the purchase of up to 40,000 more autonomous Rivian R2 vehicles beginning in 2030. RJ Scaringe, Founder and CEO of Rivian said: "We couldn't be more excited about this partnership with Uber - it will help accelerate our path to level 4 autonomy to create one of the safest and most convenient autonomous platforms in the world. The scale of Rivian's growing data flywheel coupled with RAP1, our state-of-the-art in-house inference platform, and our multi-modal perception platform make us incredibly excited for the rapid advancement of Rivian autonomy over the next couple of years." Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said, "We're big believers in Rivian's approach-designing the vehicle, compute platform, and software stack together, while maintaining end-to-end control of scaled manufacturing and supply in the U.S. That vertical integration, combined with data from their growing consumer vehicle base and experience managing the complexities of commercial fleets, gives us conviction to set these ambitious but achievable targets."ADJUSTED EBITDA TARGET:In a regulatory filing, Rivian noted that the company no longer expects to be adjusted EBITDA positive in 2027 due to an expected increase in R&D spend associated with the acceleration of its autonomy roadmap after Rivian and Uber announced their partnership deal.BUY LUCID:Citi analyst Michael Ward initiated coverage of Lucid Groupwith a Buy rating and $17 price target. The firm believes Lucid has reached a "positive inflection point." The company launched Gravity in Q4 of 2025, is on track to begin Cosmos production in Q of 2026, and its Uber robotaxi agreement is expected to begin commercial operations by year-end, the analyst tells investors in a research note.MOVING TO THE SIDELINES:Macquarie downgraded XPengto Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $19, down from $24. The firm likes XPeng's physical AI "optionality" but says the company's volume growth "is no guarantee this year." The stock typically outperforms when XPeng releases a "clear hit product," but it remains too early to judge if the upcoming GX or new Mona SUV series in the second half of 2025 will have a similar impact, the firm tells investors in a research note. Macquarie downgraded the shares after cutting XPeng's loss per share estimate to reflect the company's higher spend.US Tiger also downgraded XPeng to Hold from Buy with a price target of $20, down from $28. The company reported a "solid" Q4 and achieved its first-ever quarterly net profit, but the near-term outlook appears "soft," and growth remains back-end loaded, the firm tells investors.WEAKER GUIDANCE:Goldman Sachs analyst Tina Hou downgraded Li Autoto Neutral from Buy with a price target of $19, down from $24, post the Q4 report. Li issued 2026 guidance below expectations for volume and gross margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman expects the company to enter two quarters of widening net profit loss with "lackluster" volume growth and "depressed" vehicle gross margins. This is due to a by lack of new model launches, raw material and memory cost inflation, and LI's higher mix of the low-margin i6, contends the firm.ENERGY PRICES UP:Jefferies upgraded SolarEdgeto Hold from Underperform with a price target of $49, up from $30, as the Middle East conflict drives volatility in European energy prices. This current impact is mirroring the Russia-Ukraine crisis, which boosted SolarEdge's Europe revenue to a peak of $1.9B in 2023 from $630M in 2020, notes the firm, which expects a potential, but "not as dramatic," demand surge in Europe to support earnings.
