Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's my analysis for VRSK stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $278.93, showing a modest gain of +0.34% in the last regular trading session. The RSI at 51.64 indicates neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The stock is trading above its 20-day moving average of $276.34, suggesting a slightly bullish short-term trend.

Recent Catalysts Two major events are currently impacting VRSK:

1. Los Angeles Wildfires Impact:

• VRSK estimates insured losses between $28-35 billion
• The Palisades fire alone could result in $20-25 billion in losses
• This event could drive increased demand for VRSK's risk assessment services

2. Upcoming Q4 Earnings:

• Scheduled for February 19, 2025
• Analysts expect EPS of $1.60, up 14.3% year-over-year
• Company has beaten estimates in 3 out of last 4 quarters

Analyst Sentiment

Recent analyst actions show mixed but generally positive sentiment:

• Barclays: Downgraded to Hold with $310 PT (15.4% upside)
• RBC Capital: Buy rating with $300 PT (9.68% upside)
• Morgan Stanley: Hold rating with $300 PT (5.15% upside)

Valuation

The stock is trading at premium valuations compared to peers with similar earnings growth outlooks. While the company's growth prospects are solid, the current valuation appears to be pricing in much of the potential upside.

Recommendation HOLD - While VRSK remains a high-quality business with strong market position and growth prospects, the current price level suggests limited near-term upside. The upcoming earnings report and wildfire-related business could provide catalysts, but the premium valuation warrants caution.

Based on the provided data and market context, here is the price prediction analysis for VRSK stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis

Current Market Position The stock is currently trading at $278.72 as of January 24, 2025, showing a positive momentum with a 0.34% gain in regular trading hours and 0.06% gain in after-hours. The stock has maintained a steady upward trend over recent months.

Price Target Analysis Based on analyst consensus and technical indicators, VRSK is expected to reach $296-300 by end of 2025, representing about 6-8% upside potential from current levels. This projection is supported by:

1. Strong technical setup with price holding above key moving averages (20-day MA at $276.34)
2. RSI at 51.64 indicating room for further upside without being overbought
3. Recent analyst coverage maintaining "Moderate Buy" rating with mean price target of $296.88

Key Growth Drivers

• Strong subscription revenue growth of 9.1% and expanding EBITDA margins
• Strategic positioning in data analytics and insurance markets
• Recent wildfires in LA highlighting increased demand for Verisk's catastrophe modeling services

Price Target Breakdown The stock is likely to trade in the following ranges through 2025:

• Base case: $290-300 (65% probability)
• Bull case: $310-320 (20% probability)
• Bear case: $260-270 (15% probability)

The stock appears fairly valued at current levels but has room for further appreciation driven by steady earnings growth and expanding margins in its core business segments.

The S1 support level for VRSK Stock is $268.84 ,The R1 resistant level for VRSK Stock is $281.02.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of VRSK Stock was $278.72.

The target price for VRSK Stock according to analyst rating is 298.00, with the highest price target at 313.00 and the lowest at 276.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on VRSK Stock overall.

The market cap of VRSK is $39.4B.

Based on the provided data, I'll analyze if VRSK is overvalued through multiple aspects.

Valuation Metrics The latest Q3 2024 data shows VRSK trading at:

• P/E: 35.9x
• EV/EBITDA: 27.1x
• P/S: 13.7x
• P/B: 126.5x

Financial Performance Revenue growth has been steady but moderate, with Q3 2024 revenue at $725.3M (+7% YoY), while maintaining healthy gross margins around 58.7% and net margins of 30.3%.

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst actions show mixed views. Barclays downgraded VRSK to Hold from Buy on January 10, 2025, though maintaining a $310 price target. RBC Capital and Morgan Stanley maintain positive views with price targets of $300, suggesting limited upside from current levels.

Conclusion VRSK appears overvalued based on traditional metrics and limited growth prospects. While it's a high-quality business with stable margins and recurring revenue, the current valuation multiples are significantly above industry averages, and recent analyst actions suggest limited upside potential.

Verisk Analytics, Inc. is a data, analytics, and technology provider serving clients in the insurance ecosystem. The Company offers predictive analytics and decision support solutions to clients in rating, underwriting, claims, catastrophe, weather risk, and many other fields. Its Insurance segment primarily serves its property and casualty insurance customers across personal and commercial lines of business, focusing on insurance programs, the prediction of loss, the selection and pricing of risk, and compliance with their reporting requirements in each United States state in which they operate. It also develops and utilize machine learned and artificially intelligent models to forecast scenarios and produce both standard and customized analytics that help its customers better manage their businesses, including detecting fraud before and after a loss event and quantifying losses. It also helps businesses and governments anticipate and manage climate and weather-related risks.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for VRSK stock by 2030:

Verisk Analytics (VRSK) stock is projected to reach approximately $425-450 by 2030, driven by its strong market position in data analytics and technology solutions for the insurance industry, with consistent high-single-digit revenue growth and expanding margins. The company's strategic focus on AI implementation and subscription-based revenue model, which now accounts for 82% of total revenue, provides stable growth visibility. Recent analyst consensus maintains a "Moderate Buy" rating with near-term price targets around $296.88, suggesting steady upward momentum.

VRSK has a total of 7500 employees.