UPB Valuation

Upstream Bio Inc

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15.190

+1.22(8.733%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

UPB Relative Valuation

UPB's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, UPB is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Upstream Bio Inc (UPB) is now in the Overvalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 543.13 is considered Overvalued compared with the five-year average of -4.94. The fair price of Upstream Bio Inc (UPB) is between 5.58 to 14.63 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 15.19 USD , Upstream Bio Inc is Overvalued By 3.81%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

5.58-14.63

Current Price：15.19

3.81%

Overvalued

-4.92

Trailing

Forward

-2.21

EV/EBITDA

Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) has a current EV/EBITDA of -2.21. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is -4.02. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -12.89, Undervalued between -12.89 and -8.45, Fairly Valued between 0.42 and -8.45, Overvalued between 0.42 and 4.86, and Strongly Overvalued above 4.86. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of -2.21 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

-2.13

EV/EBIT

Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) has a current EV/EBIT of -2.13. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is -3.56. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -11.37, Undervalued between -11.37 and -7.46, Fairly Valued between 0.34 and -7.46, Overvalued between 0.34 and 4.25, and Strongly Overvalued above 4.25. The current Forward EV/EBIT of -2.13 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

543.13

Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) has a current PS of 543.13. The 5-year average PS is 403.67. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -1.01, Undervalued between -1.01 and 201.33, Fairly Valued between 606.00 and 201.33, Overvalued between 606.00 and 808.34, and Strongly Overvalued above 808.34. The current Forward PS of 543.13 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

-6.77

P/OCF

Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) has a current P/OCF of -6.77. The 5-year average P/OCF is -6.53. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -14.44, Undervalued between -14.44 and -10.49, Fairly Valued between -2.57 and -10.49, Overvalued between -2.57 and 1.39, and Strongly Overvalued above 1.39. The current Forward P/OCF of -6.77 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

-12.70

P/FCF

Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) has a current P/FCF of -12.70. The 5-year average P/FCF is -12.01. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -26.41, Undervalued between -26.41 and -19.21, Fairly Valued between -4.81 and -19.21, Overvalued between -4.81 and 2.40, and Strongly Overvalued above 2.40. The current Forward P/FCF of -12.70 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Upstream Bio Inc (UPB) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.68. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 0.38 , the current P/B ratio is approximately 348.28% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 0.38, the current P/B ratio is about 348.28% higher. Upstream Bio Inc (UPB) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately -10.80%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of -11.24%, the current FCF yield is approximately -3.93% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of -11.24% , the current FCF yield is about -3.93% lower.

1.68

P/B

Median3y

0.38

Median5y

0.38

-10.80

FCF Yield

Median3y

-11.24

Median5y

-11.24

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for UPB's competitors is 166.87, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Upstream Bio Inc Corp (UPB) exhibits a P/S ratio of 543.13, which is 225.47% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -11.56%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

Tango Therapeutics Inc

Stoke Therapeutics Inc

Taysha Gene Therapies Inc

Dianthus Therapeutics Inc

Vir Biotechnology Inc

68.78

-94.62%

724.37M

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of UPB decreased by 36.12% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an decrease in Margin Expansion from -1.70K to -4.82K.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed -11.56%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of UPB in the past 1 year is driven by Margin Expansion. Which is more sustainable.

-11.56%

640.00K → 566.00K

Revenue Growth

183.05%

-1.70K → -4.82K

Margin Expansion

-207.61%

3.81 → -4.10

P/E Change

-36.12%