Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis and price prediction for UNP for the next trading week:
Technical Analysis
The stock is currently trading at $245.84, showing mixed technical signals. The RSI(14) at 52.82 indicates a neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD at 3.11 suggests a slightly bullish short-term trend. The stock is trading above both its 20-day MA ($240.91) and 200-day MA ($236.26), indicating an overall bullish trend structure.
Fibonacci Levels Key resistance levels: R1: $254.44, R2: $259.10, R3: $266.66 Key support levels: S1: $239.33, S2: $234.66, S3: $227.11 Pivot point: $246.88
News Impact Analysis Recent significant developments affecting UNP:
Trade Tensions: New tariffs concerns with China could impact agricultural exports, particularly affecting UNP's grain transportation business. This poses a potential downside risk.
Dividend Announcement: UNP declared a quarterly dividend of $1.34 per share, payable March 31, 2025, demonstrating continued financial stability.
Strong Q4 2024 Performance: The company reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings with EPS of $2.91, beating estimates of $2.78.
Price Prediction for Next Week Based on technical and fundamental factors:
Target Range: $242-$258
Bullish Case ($254-$258):
Bearish Case ($242-$246):
Most Probable Scenario: The stock is likely to trade in the range of $246-$254, with an upward bias. The strong fundamental backdrop and recent earnings beat provide support, while trade tensions may limit immediate upside. The Fibonacci pivot at $246.88 should act as a key support level.
Trading Strategy: Look for entries near the S1 level ($239.33) with initial targets at R1 ($254.44). Set stops below S2 ($234.66) to manage risk.
The price of UNP is predicted to go up -3.82%, based on the high correlation periods with LITM. The similarity of these two price pattern on the periods is 98.15%.
UNP
LITM
Year
UNP Price Forecast($)
Potential Return(%)
2025
231.500
0.000
2026
272.000
9.770
2027
300.000
21.070
2028
320.000
29.140
2029
320.000
29.140
2030
350.000
41.250
We expect international and domestic intermodal volumes to flip positive this year as retail sector restocking activity improves and truckload competition gradually abates.
Network service has improved materially off a lackluster performance in 2021 and 2022 thanks to progress hiring train and engine personnel, along with productivity initiatives.
PSR efforts yielded impressive improvement in UP's operating ratio (expenses/revenue) between 2019 and 2021. Despite service setbacks in 2022 and cost headwinds in 2023, we expect UP will continue to refine its PSR playbook.
Raymond James
2025-01-24
Price Target
$265 → $285
Upside
+14.56%
BMO Capital
2025-01-24
Price Target
$275 → $277
Upside
+11.34%
Benchmark
2025-01-24
Price Target
$266 → $275
Upside
+10.54%