Technical Analysis:
AMAT's stock has shown significant weakness recently, falling from $198.52 to $171.98 last week. The RSI-14 reading of 43.76 indicates neutral momentum but trending towards oversold territory. The MACD shows a bearish crossover with -1.22 histogram value, suggesting continued downward pressure.
News Impact:
- AMAT reported Q1 FY2025 earnings with revenue of $7.17 billion (+7% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $2.38, beating analyst estimates.
- However, Q2 guidance disappointed investors due to new trade restrictions with China, representing a $400 million headwind for fiscal 2025, with half impacting Q2.
- China exposure is expected to drop to ~25% this quarter from 31% previously.
Price Targets & Support/Resistance:
- Fibonacci levels indicate:
- Strong resistance: $186.72
- First resistance: $182.96
- Pivot point: $176.88
- First support: $170.81
- Second support: $167.05
Next Week's Price Prediction:
Based on technical indicators and recent news:
- Bearish scenario (60% probability): Stock likely to test support at $170.81, potentially breaking down to $167.05 if market weakness continues
- Neutral scenario (30% probability): Consolidation between $170-$175
- Bullish scenario (10% probability): Bounce towards $182.96 resistance, though unlikely given current sentiment
Recommendation: SELL
- Entry: Current price ($172.12)
- Target: $167.05
- Stop loss: $176.88
- Rationale: Combination of technical weakness, China headwinds, and broader semiconductor sector pressure suggests further downside
Technical Analysis:
AMAT's stock has shown significant weakness recently, falling from $198.52 to $171.98 last week. The RSI-14 reading of 43.76 indicates neutral momentum but trending towards oversold territory. The MACD shows a bearish crossover with -1.22 histogram value, suggesting continued downward pressure.
News Impact:
- AMAT reported Q1 FY2025 earnings with revenue of $7.17 billion (+7% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $2.38, beating analyst estimates.
- However, Q2 guidance disappointed investors due to new trade restrictions with China, representing a $400 million headwind for fiscal 2025, with half impacting Q2.
- China exposure is expected to drop to ~25% this quarter from 31% previously.
Price Targets & Support/Resistance:
- Fibonacci levels indicate:
- Strong resistance: $186.72
- First resistance: $182.96
- Pivot point: $176.88
- First support: $170.81
- Second support: $167.05
Next Week's Price Prediction:
Based on technical indicators and recent news:
- Bearish scenario (60% probability): Stock likely to test support at $170.81, potentially breaking down to $167.05 if market weakness continues
- Neutral scenario (30% probability): Consolidation between $170-$175
- Bullish scenario (10% probability): Bounce towards $182.96 resistance, though unlikely given current sentiment
Recommendation: SELL
- Entry: Current price ($172.12)
- Target: $167.05
- Stop loss: $176.88
- Rationale: Combination of technical weakness, China headwinds, and broader semiconductor sector pressure suggests further downside