Should I Buy ULCC? ULCC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

4.990

1 Day change

0.81%

52 Week Range

10.260

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner, long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 to invest. While technical indicators show some bullish momentum, the company's financial performance is weak, with significant YoY declines in revenue, net income, and EPS. Additionally, insider selling has surged, and analysts' ratings remain neutral or negative. The options data and news sentiment do not provide a compelling reason to invest right now. It is better to wait for clearer signs of financial recovery or stronger positive catalysts before considering this stock.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators show a bullish trend with MACD histogram positively expanding at 0.0184, RSI at 56.551 in the neutral zone, and moving averages in a bullish alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). Key support and resistance levels are Pivot: 5.122, R1: 5.439, S1: 4.805, R2: 5.635, S2: 4.609.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Spirit Airlines' financial struggles and potential acquisition by Castlelake could open market share opportunities for Frontier Group. Analysts note potential benefits from Spirit Airlines' pullback.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Insider selling has surged by 392.36% in the last month. The company's financial performance is significantly deteriorating, with YoY declines in revenue (-5.24%), net income (-396.15%), and EPS (-383.33%). Analysts' ratings are mostly neutral or negative, with price targets ranging from $4 to $6, indicating limited upside potential.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, Frontier Group's revenue dropped to $886 million (-5.24% YoY), net income fell to -$77 million (-396.15% YoY), and EPS declined to -$0.34 (-383.33% YoY). Gross margin also dropped slightly to 50.45 (-1.31% YoY).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts are neutral to negative on the stock. Susquehanna raised the price target to $5 from $4 but maintained a Neutral rating. BofA downgraded the stock to Underperform with a $4 price target. UBS raised the price target to $6 but remained Neutral. Morgan Stanley lowered the price target to $8 from $9 with an Equal Weight rating. Citi initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $5 price target, citing challenges for low-cost carriers.

10 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ULCC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ULCC is 5.25 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 8 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

8 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 4.950

Low

Averages

5.25

High

Current: 4.950

Low

Averages

5.25

High

Susquehanna

Neutral

maintain

$4 -> $5

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Susquehanna

Price Target

$4 -> $5

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Frontier Group to $5 from $4 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q4 preview. The firm sees a "constructive fundamental backdrop" for the airlines into fiscal 2026. Select carriers will benefit from brand loyalty and diverse revenue streams, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

BofA

Neutral -> Underperform

downgrade

$5 -> $4

2026-01-06

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$5 -> $4

2026-01-06

downgrade

Neutral -> Underperform

Reason

BofA downgraded Frontier Group to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $4, down from $5.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ULCC

Unlock Now

ULCC Should I Buy

ULCC Should I Buy

Should You Buy Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch