ULCC Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ULCC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ULCC sees a +2.21% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -2.84% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +3.62%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ULCC Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.00B
12.46%
7.17%
Gross Margin
56.09%
11.31%
9.72%
Operating Margin
4.49%
1420.59%
109.81%
Net Margin
5.39%
229.88%
93.88%
EPS
0.24
241.18%
100.00%
No Data Available
ULCC Earnings Analysis
Frontier Group Holdings Inc Corporation (ULCC.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Margin Performance: Adjusted pretax margin for Q4 was 5.1%, significantly higher than guidance, indicating strong revenue and cost optimization efforts.
Record Revenue Achievement: Total operating revenue in Q4 reached a record $1 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year despite 2% lower capacity, showcasing effective revenue management.
RASM Increase Driven by Demand: RASM increased by 15% to $0.1023, driven by stronger than expected demand in December, reflecting successful commercial initiatives.
Passenger Growth Surge: Frontier transported a record 33 million passengers in 2024, a 10% increase from 2023, demonstrating robust customer growth and demand.
Co-Brand Card Performance: Co-brand card acquisitions rose by 35% and spend per cardholder increased by 11% year-over-year in Q4, indicating strong engagement and loyalty program effectiveness.
Negative
Revenue Increase with Capacity Issues: Total operating revenue in Q4 was $1 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, but this was achieved on 2% lower capacity, indicating potential inefficiencies in capacity management.
Operating Expense Reduction: Adjusted non-fuel operating expenses were $728 million, reflecting a 15% reduction in average daily aircraft utilization, which could signal operational inefficiencies despite cost-saving measures.
Pretax Income Challenges: Fourth quarter pretax income was $51 million, yielding a 5.1% margin, which is below industry standards and indicates challenges in achieving higher profitability levels.
Easter Effect on Margins: The company expects a drag on Q1 results due to the Easter effect, estimating a 1-2 point impact on margins, which could hinder overall financial performance in the short term.
Passenger Growth Concerns: Despite a record 33 million passengers in 2024, the reliance on a reduced capacity strategy raises concerns about long-term sustainability and growth potential.
ULCC FAQs
How does ULCC typically perform around its earnings report dates?
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ULCC Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Frontier Group Holdings beats Q4 2024 EPS forecast
ULCC.O
-8.94%Positive
The earnings call shows strong financial performance with a 12% YoY revenue increase and higher-than-expected pretax margins. Despite some uncertainties in market maturity and air traffic control reforms, the company has a strong liquidity position and cost discipline. The Q&A section highlights positive trends in revenue and premium product uptake. While some concerns exist, the overall sentiment is positive, especially with the strong financial metrics and optimistic guidance. Given the small-cap nature of the company, the stock price is likely to react positively in the short term.
