Should I Buy UBFO? UBFO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy United Security Bancshares (UBFO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.740

1 Day change

0.94%

52 Week Range

11.050

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

UBFO is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The technical trend is bullish, but the stock is already near resistance with RSI pushing the high end of neutral, there are no Intellectia buy signals today, options data is effectively illiquid, and near-term pattern stats lean slightly negative over the next day/week. The M&A-related news may cap upside to deal terms, making the risk/reward less attractive for an immediate entry.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bullish: moving averages are stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting sustained upward momentum. MACD histogram is positive (0.0275) and expanding, confirming bullish acceleration. RSI(6) is 68.09 (upper-neutral, close to overbought), implying the stock may be stretched short-term. Key levels: Pivot 10.593; support S1 10.26 (then S2 10.055). Resistance R1 10.925 (then R2 11.13). With price ~10.74 post-market, it’s closer to resistance than support, reducing immediate upside for a quick entry. Pattern-based expectation provided: ~40% chance of -1.08% next day, -0.79% next week, +3.07% next month—near-term skew slightly negative.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options market is extremely thin: call OI 8 vs put OI 0, and today’s option volume is 0. This makes options sentiment signals unreliable. Implied volatility is very elevated (30d IV ~79.27) vs historical volatility ~30.37, with IV percentile ~79—this suggests the market is pricing in event risk/uncertainty, but without volume it’s not a strong actionable sentiment read.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Insider activity: insiders are buying, with the buying amount up ~2339.95% over the last month—generally supportive for confidence in value/outlook.
Technical momentum remains positive (bullish MA stack + positive/expanding MACD).
Corporate action backdrop: news references UBFO being sold to Community West Bancshares, which can support price stability into deal processes (depending on terms and closing probability).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Near-term entry is less favorable: RSI near overbought and price is approaching resistance (R1 10.925), increasing odds of a pause/pullback.
No Intellectia proprietary buy signals today (AI Stock Picker: none; SwingMax: none), reducing conviction for an immediate buy.
Options are illiquid (no volume), limiting confirmation of bullish sentiment and making hedging/pricing signals noisy.
Event-driven uncertainty: the legal/rights-related news (Halper Sadeh LLC investigation/announcements) around the UBFO sale can create headline risk and can also imply upside is capped by deal economics.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to 13,401,000 (+3.99% YoY), net income increased to 4,023,000 (+5.07% YoY), and EPS increased to 0.23 (+4.55% YoY). Overall, steady positive growth across the key lines; no margin detail beyond a reported gross margin figure of 0 (not informative for a bank-style income statement).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating trend or price-target change data was provided, so there’s no clear Wall Street consensus signal to lean on. With the available information, the ‘pros’ case is insider buying + steady Q3 growth + bullish technicals; the ‘cons’ case is lack of fresh analyst support, no proprietary buy signal, near-resistance technical setup, and M&A/event-driven upside potentially capped by transaction terms. Other flows: Hedge funds are reported neutral. Politician/congress activity: no recent congress trading data available, and no politician/influential-figure transactions were provided.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast UBFO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UBFO is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy