Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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Overview
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance and optimistic guidance, with a 13% sequential revenue increase and high gross margins. The Q&A section highlights robust AI demand, strategic investments, and expansion plans, despite some uncertainties. These factors, along with a stable shareholder return strategy, suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.
Key Financial Performance
Revenue Second quarter revenue increased 11.3% sequentially in NT due to strong demand for 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, partially offset by an unfavorable foreign exchange rate. In U.S. dollar terms, revenue increased 17.8% sequentially to TWD 30.1 billion.
Gross Margin Gross margin decreased 0.2 percentage points sequentially to 58.6%, primarily due to an unfavorable foreign exchange rate and margin dilution from overseas fabs, partially balanced by higher capacity utilization and cost improvement efforts.
Operating Margin Operating margin increased 1.1 percentage points sequentially to 49.6% due to operating leverage.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Second quarter EPS was TWD 15.36, up 60.7% year-over-year.
Return on Equity (ROE) ROE was 34.8% for the second quarter.
Revenue by Technology 3-nanometer process technology contributed 24% of wafer revenue, 5-nanometer accounted for 36%, and 7-nanometer accounted for 14%. Advanced technologies (7-nanometer and below) accounted for 74% of wafer revenue.
Revenue by Platform HPC increased 14% quarter-over-quarter to account for 60% of revenue. Smartphone increased 7% to account for 27%. IoT increased 14% to account for 5%. Automotive stayed flat at 5%, and DCE increased 30% to account for 1%.
Cash and Marketable Securities Ended the second quarter with TWD 2.6 trillion or USD 90 billion.
Current Liabilities Decreased by TWD 22 billion quarter-over-quarter, mainly due to a TWD 38 billion decrease in accrued liabilities and others, primarily from income tax payments.
Accounts Receivable Turnover Days Decreased by 5 days to 23 days, mainly due to NT dollar appreciation.
Days of Inventory Decreased by 7 days to 76 days, primarily due to higher N3 and N5 wafer shipments.
Cash Flow and CapEx Generated TWD 497 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 297 billion in CapEx, and distributed TWD 117 billion for third quarter '24 cash dividend. Cash balance decreased TWD 30.3 billion to TWD 2.36 trillion at the end of the quarter.
Operating Highlights
3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies: Strong demand for these technologies drove a 17.8% sequential revenue increase in Q2 2025, contributing significantly to wafer revenue (24% and 36% respectively).
N2 and A16 technologies: N2 is on track for volume production in H2 2025, offering significant performance and power benefits. A16, an advanced derivative, is scheduled for production in H2 2026, targeting HPC applications.
A14 technology: Development is progressing well, with volume production scheduled for 2028. It promises significant performance and power improvements over N2.
Global manufacturing footprint: TSMC is expanding in the U.S., Japan, Europe, and Taiwan. In the U.S., plans include six fabs in Arizona, with the first already in production. Japan's Kumamoto fab began production in late 2024, and a second fab is planned. In Europe, a fab in Dresden, Germany, is under development.
AI and HPC demand: Robust demand for AI and HPC-related technologies is driving growth, with full-year 2025 revenue expected to increase by 30% in USD terms.
Overseas fabs impact: Margin dilution from overseas fabs (e.g., Arizona and Kumamoto) is expected to reduce gross margins by 2%-3% annually in early stages, widening to 3%-4% in later stages.
Foreign exchange rate impact: NT dollar appreciation negatively impacted Q2 revenue by 4.4% and is expected to reduce Q3 revenue by 6.6% in NT terms.
Long-term investment strategy: TSMC is investing heavily in advanced technologies and global expansion to maintain leadership. The company plans to build 11 fabs in Taiwan and expand globally to meet customer demand.
Focus on AI and HPC: TSMC is prioritizing AI and HPC technologies, which are expected to drive long-term growth and structural demand.
Risk or Challenges
Foreign Exchange Rate Impact: Fluctuations in the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and NT dollar have a significant impact on TSMC's revenue and gross profit margin. A 1% appreciation of the NT dollar against the U.S. dollar reduces reported NT revenue by 1% and gross margin by about 40 basis points. This has already negatively impacted Q2 and is expected to further impact Q3 2025.
Overseas Fabs Margin Dilution: The ramp-up of overseas fabs, particularly in Arizona and Kumamoto, is causing margin dilution. This is expected to result in a 2%-3% gross margin reduction annually in the early stages, widening to 3%-4% in later stages over the next five years.
Tariff Policies and Consumer Demand: Potential tariff policies could impact consumer-related and price-sensitive end markets, creating uncertainties in demand.
High Capital Expenditures: TSMC plans to invest between USD 38 billion and USD 42 billion in 2025, which could strain financial resources and impact profitability if returns are delayed or lower than expected.
Geopolitical Risks: TSMC's global expansion, including fabs in the U.S., Japan, and Europe, depends on government support and customer demand. Any changes in geopolitical conditions or government policies could disrupt these plans.
Guidance & Outlook
Third Quarter 2025 Revenue: Expected to be between TWD 31.8 billion and USD 33 billion, representing an 8% sequential increase or a 38% year-over-year increase at the midpoint.
Third Quarter 2025 Margins: Gross margin is expected to be between 55.5% and 57.5%. Operating margin is expected to be between 45.5% and 47.5%.
2025 Capital Budget: Maintained at between USD 38 billion and USD 42 billion.
Full Year 2025 Revenue Growth: Expected to increase by around 30% in U.S. dollar terms, driven by strong demand for 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies and growth in the HPC platform.
Overseas Fab Margin Impact: Gross margin dilution from overseas fabs is forecasted to be between 2% to 3% annually in the early stages, widening to 3% to 4% in later stages over the next 5 years starting from 2025.
Long-Term Gross Margin: Expected to remain above 53% despite unfavorable foreign exchange rates.
N2 Technology: Volume production is on track for the second half of 2025, with a ramp profile similar to N3.
N2P Technology: Volume production is scheduled for the second half of 2026, offering further performance and power benefits over N2.
A16 Technology: Volume production is on track for the second half of 2026, providing additional performance and power improvements over N2P.
A14 Technology: Volume production is scheduled for 2028, offering significant performance and power benefits over N2.
Shareholder Return Plan
Cash Dividend Distribution: During the second quarter, TSMC distributed TWD 117 billion for the third quarter '24 cash dividend.
Key Q&A
Earnings Word Cloud
TSM Transcript
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with record revenue growth, robust cash flow, and optimistic guidance for AI demand. Despite some concerns on margin dilution and vague responses in the Q&A, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong demand in AI and advanced technologies, coupled with a solid shareholder return plan. The optimistic guidance for AI and technology advancements outweigh potential risks, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance and optimistic guidance, with a 13% sequential revenue increase and high gross margins. The Q&A section highlights robust AI demand, strategic investments, and expansion plans, despite some uncertainties. These factors, along with a stable shareholder return strategy, suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.
The earnings call reflects mixed signals: strong AI demand and a slight EPS beat are positive, but revenue decline and margin pressure due to external factors (earthquake, overseas expansion) are concerning. Q&A highlighted demand strength but also management's evasiveness on certain risks. No explicit Q2 guidance was given, which can cause uncertainty. The absence of a share repurchase plan and increased inventory days further contribute to a neutral outlook. Without market cap data, a neutral prediction is prudent, considering both positive and negative elements.
The earnings call highlighted strong AI demand and a significant investment plan, but these were offset by a decline in revenue and margins, and vague management responses in the Q&A. The guidance for Q1 2025 indicates a revenue decline, and there was no new partnership announcement or shareholder return plan adjustment. The market is likely to remain cautious, resulting in a neutral stock price movement.
TSM Report
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