TRUP Should I Buy
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TRUP is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock is still in a bearish technical trend (downtrend structure and weak momentum), and options flow shows heavy near-term put demand, implying traders are still positioning for downside/hedging into the next catalyst (earnings on 2026-02-12). While the latest quarter (2025/Q3) showed improving profitability and solid revenue growth, the current tape and sentiment do not support an immediate, high-conviction entry at ~$31.99.
Price/Trend: The moving average stack is bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling a continuing downtrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.103) but negatively contracting, which suggests downside momentum is slowing, not reversing yet. RSI_6 at 38.78 is weak/near the lower end of neutral, consistent with a stock that can still drift lower before buyers regain control. Levels: Pivot ~32.21 is immediate overhead; price is slightly below it, so the stock is trading under a key decision zone. Support sits at S1 ~31.11 then S2 ~30.43; resistance at R1 ~33.32 then R2 ~34.00. Near-term pattern odds provided are also unfavorable (higher probability of small declines over 1-day and 1-week horizons).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Business momentum: Latest reported quarter (2025/Q
showed strong YoY improvement in net income and EPS alongside double-digit revenue growth.
Potential event catalyst: Next earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-12 after hours (Street EPS est. ~0.
could re-rate the stock if margins/retention/claims trends improve.
Product/brand narrative: News highlights 25th anniversary scale and operational improvements (rapid payment tech), supportive for long-term story though not a direct near-term driver.
Technical downtrend: Bearish MA structure and price below the pivot zone (~32.
keep the near-term bias negative.
Options flow: Extremely high put/call volume ratio (8.
signals traders are leaning defensive/short-term bearish.
Analyst caution on pricing/ARPU: Stifel commentary flags mismatch between consumer willingness to pay (<= ~$
vs TRUP ARPU (~$82), suggesting growth may be outside TRUP’s current sweet spot and customer acquisition efficiency could remain pressured.
Event risk: Earnings in ~2 weeks can drive sharp moves; current options flow suggests the market is preparing for downside.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue $366.92M (+12.05% YoY) shows continued top-line growth. Profitability improved sharply: Net income $5.87M (+312.14% YoY) and EPS $0.13 (+333.33% YoY) indicate meaningful operating leverage versus the prior year period. Gross margin 15.26% (+11.06% YoY) also improved, supporting the quality of earnings. Net read: Fundamentals are trending better, but the stock’s near-term trading setup is not yet confirming a turn.
Recent trend: Price targets have been cut in multiple notes, indicating tempered expectations. Stifel (2026-01-29) lowered PT to $38 from $42 and maintained Hold; Stifel previously cut to $42 from $45 (Hold) with concerns about ARPU vs consumer willingness to pay and acquisition efficiency. Piper Sandler (2025-12-19) lowered PT to $60 from $67 but kept Overweight, citing a strong claims environment and benefits from AI/automation in insurance.
Wall Street pros: improving profitability trends; potential operational leverage; structural tailwinds in pet insurance and automation. Cons: concerns about product price point/ARPU relative to broad consumer demand, potentially limiting growth; mixed conviction signaled by repeated PT cuts; near-term sentiment remains cautious.
