Should I Buy TREX? TREX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Trex Company Inc (TREX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

41.780

1 Day change

-0.45%

52 Week Range

74.680

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

Trex Company Inc (TREX) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor focused on long-term growth. While the company has shown YoY financial growth in Q3 2025, the recent negative news, including sales forecast cuts and investigations, combined with mixed analyst ratings and hedge fund selling, suggest caution. The stock's technical indicators and options data do not indicate a strong upward trend, and there are no significant proprietary trading signals to support an immediate buy decision.

Technical Analysis

The MACD histogram is positive at 0.372, indicating a bullish trend, but it is contracting. RSI is neutral at 57.935, and moving averages are converging, showing no clear directional trend. The stock is trading near its pivot level of 42.326, with resistance at 44.651 and support at 40.002.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Insider buying has surged by 18380.90% over the last month, indicating confidence from company insiders. Analysts from Wolfe Research and UBS have recently upgraded the stock, citing potential for margin expansion and discounted valuation.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

The company is under investigation for undisclosed sales practices, which has led to a revision of its 2025 sales growth expectations to 0%. Hedge funds have increased selling by 236.05% over the last quarter. Additionally, the stock has faced significant price target downgrades from multiple analysts, and the housing market outlook remains challenging.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, Trex reported revenue of $285.35M, up 22.09% YoY. Net income increased by 27.66% YoY to $51.77M, and EPS grew 29.73% YoY to 0.48. Gross margin improved to 40.94%, up 2.66% YoY. Despite these improvements, the company has cut its 2025 sales growth forecast to 0% due to weak demand and inventory management issues.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst sentiment is mixed. Wolfe Research and UBS upgraded the stock, citing discounted valuation and potential for margin expansion. However, firms like Barclays and Citi have lowered their price targets, citing challenges in the housing market and weak fundamentals. The price targets range from $32 to $54, with a median target around $42, close to the current price.

17 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TREX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TREX is 43.56 USD with a low forecast of 32 USD and a high forecast of 57 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

7 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 41.970

Low

Averages

43.56

High

Current: 41.970

Low

Averages

43.56

High

Wolfe Research

Peer Perform

Outperform

upgrade

$47

AI Analysis

2026-01-07

Reason

Wolfe Research

Price Target

$47

AI Analysis

2026-01-07

upgrade

Peer Perform

Outperform

Reason

Wolfe Research upgraded Trex Company to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $47 price target. The firm sees less risk to 2026 estimates, particularly as it views consensus gross margin estimates for 2026 as "conservative," the analyst tells investors. A discounted valuation versus historical averages "creates a margin of safety," the analyst added.

UBS

Neutral -> Buy

upgrade

$50 -> $52

2026-01-06

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$50 -> $52

2026-01-06

upgrade

Neutral -> Buy

Reason

UBS upgraded Trex Company to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $52, up from $50. The firm sees the company returning to high single-digit year-over-year sales growth in fiscal 2027, following five consecutive years of below trend activity. Trex is also well positioned to drive margin expansion in 2027 and beyond, and the the stock will begin outperforming as evidence of improved conversion activity and a margin floor emerge in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for TREX

Unlock Now

TREX Should I Buy

TREX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Trex Company Inc (TREX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch