Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent price action and technical indicators, TREX stock shows bearish signals in the short term, suggesting it's better to wait for a more favorable entry point rather than buying at current levels.

Technical Analysis:

• The stock is currently in a downtrend, having fallen from recent highs around $90
• RSI (14) at 38.19 indicates neutral to slightly oversold conditions
• MACD shows a bearish signal with -0.85 and negative histogram
• Stock is trading below both 5-day ($68.38) and 10-day ($70.11) moving averages

Fundamental Factors:

• The company will report Q4 2024 earnings on February 24, 2025, after market close
• Recent insider selling activity, with Senior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer selling $1.5m worth of shares
• The company is implementing an exclusivity strategy with distributors for both decking and railing products

Market Position:

• Trex remains the world's largest manufacturer of wood-alternative decking and railing products
• The company aims to double its railing market share from 6% to 12% over the next five years
• Strong distribution network with products sold through more than 6,700 retail outlets across six continents

Risks:

• Upcoming earnings report could create volatility
• Recent insider selling might indicate management's cautious outlook
• Technical indicators suggest continued weakness in the short term

Recommendation: Based on the current technical setup and upcoming earnings catalyst, it would be prudent to wait for a potential pullback to the support level around $65.90 before considering a long position. The stock currently shows several negative signals and remains in a falling trend.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here's the price prediction for TREX stock in 2025:

TREX stock is expected to reach $85-90 by end of 2025, representing a potential upside of 26-33% from current levels around $67.40, driven by continued strong demand in residential decking market and margin expansion from operational efficiencies.

The company's upcoming Q4 2024 earnings release on February 24, 2025 will be a key catalyst that could provide further momentum if results exceed expectations.

Technical analysis shows the stock is currently trading near key support levels around $65-67, suggesting limited downside risk from current prices.

The S1 support level for TREX Stock is $65.34 ,The R1 resistant level for TREX Stock is $72.26.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of TREX Stock was $60.58.

The target price for TREX Stock according to analyst rating is 78.75, with the highest price target at 85.00 and the lowest at 76.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on TREX Stock overall.

The market cap of TREX is $6.5B.

Based on the technical and fundamental analysis of TREX, here are the key findings in 5 concise sentences:

TREX appears overvalued with its current price of $67.33, trading at a P/E ratio of 30.71x which is significantly higher than historical averages. Technical indicators show bearish signals with RSI at 38.19 and MACD at -0.85, suggesting downward momentum. The company's upcoming Q4 2024 earnings release on February 24, 2025 could be a catalyst for price movement, especially given the current technical weakness. Recent analyst reports indicate concerns about premium valuation despite good long-term growth prospects, with the stock trading above its 20-day moving average of $71.61. The company's strong market position as the world's largest manufacturer of wood-alternative decking doesn't justify the current valuation premium, particularly considering the challenging macro environment affecting consumer discretionary spending.

Trex Company, Inc. is a manufacturer of wood-alternative decking and residential railing and outdoor living products and accessories, marketed under the brand name Trex. The Company’s segment is Trex Residential Products. Trex Residential Products manufactures outdoor living products, consisting of composite decking and railing products, hidden fasteners, and a broad offering of outdoor living accessories. The Company offers a range of products, such as Trex Outdoor Furniture; Trex Pergola; Trex Lattice; Trex Cornhole; Trex Blade; Trex Outdoor Kitchens, and others. Its principal decking products are Trex Signature, Trex Transcend Lineage, Trex Transcend, Trex Select, and Trex Enhance. Trex Outdoor Kitchens cabinetry is manufactured and sold by Danver Outdoor Kitchens. Its Trex Seclusions composite fencing product is offered through two specialty distributors. This product consists of structural posts, bottom rails, pickets, top rails and decorative post caps.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here's a prediction for TREX stock price in 2030:

TREX stock is projected to reach $125-135 by 2030, representing an approximate 85-100% increase from current levels around $67.40, driven by continued leadership in sustainable decking materials and expansion into new outdoor living product categories.

The company's strong market position as the world's #1 brand of sustainably made wood-alternative decking products, combined with its expanding distribution network across six continents, positions it well for sustained growth.

Recent recognition as one of America's Most Sustainable Companies and inclusion in Barron's 100 Most Sustainable U.S. Companies 2024 indicates strong ESG performance that should support long-term value creation.