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TPL Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
409.970
1 Day change
8.47%
52 Week Range
547.200
Analysis Updated At
2026/04/10
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Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) is not a strong buy at this moment for a beginner investor with a long-term horizon. While the stock has positive catalysts such as strong financial performance and favorable analyst ratings, the technical indicators suggest a bearish trend with oversold conditions. Additionally, there are no strong trading signals or significant recent catalysts to justify an immediate entry.

Technical Analysis

The MACD histogram is negative (-15.329) and expanding downward, indicating a bearish momentum. The RSI is at 10, which is extremely oversold, but this does not guarantee an immediate reversal. Moving averages are converging, showing indecision in price direction. The stock is trading significantly below its pivot level (455.713), with key support at 391.579 and resistance at 519.847.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The low Put-Call ratios suggest a bullish sentiment in the options market, but the implied volatility is high (53.27), indicating potential price swings.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
7
Buy
5

Positive Catalysts

  • KeyBanc raised the price target to $639, citing strong water segment trends and generational opportunities in power generation and data centers.

  • Revenue increased by 13.88% YoY in Q4 2025, with net income and EPS also showing growth.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • The MACD and RSI indicate bearish momentum and oversold conditions.

  • The passing of board member Murray Stahl may create temporary uncertainty or leadership concerns.

  • Gross margin dropped by -8.38% YoY in Q4 2025.

Financial Performance

In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue growth of 13.88% YoY to $211.58M, net income growth of 4.21% YoY to $123.35M, and EPS growth of 4.68% YoY to 1.79. However, gross margin declined by -8.38% YoY to 81.35%.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

KeyBanc has an Overweight rating on TPL and raised the price target to $639, citing strong water segment trends and generational opportunities in power generation and data centers.

Wall Street analysts forecast TPL stock price to rise
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast TPL stock price to rise
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 377.970
sliders
Low
1050
Averages
1050
High
1050
Current: 377.970
sliders
Low
1050
Averages
1050
High
1050
KeyBanc
Overweight
upgrade
$350 -> $639
AI Analysis
2026-02-23
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
$350 -> $639
AI Analysis
2026-02-23
upgrade
Overweight
Reason
KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on Texas Pacific Land to $639 from $350 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says it has observed significant positive updates on the generational power gen/data center opportunity on Texas Pacific's surface acreage since its initiation, married with strong current water segment trends. KeyBanc sees Texas Pacific as ideally positioned from a land and water perspective and believes sum-of-the-parts valuation is warranted, which suggests further upside.
KeyBanc
Overweight
initiated
$1,050
2025-12-02
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
$1,050
2025-12-02
initiated
Overweight
Reason
KeyBanc last night initiated coverage of Texas Pacific Land with an Overweight rating and $1,050 price target. Texas Pacific is a large owner of land and royalty interests in Texas, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the company is emerging from its "multi-decade run as a sleepy public entity." KeyBanc says growing appreciation for the optionality and organic growth potential embedded in the "vast" west Texas market has driven the stock's rally.
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