Should I Buy TPL? TPL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

353.210

1 Day change

-0.44%

52 Week Range

487.670

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) is a good buy for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy and $50,000-$100,000 available for investment. The company's strong financial performance, positive analyst rating, and growth potential in the West Texas market make it an attractive long-term investment. While there are no immediate trading signals or significant news catalysts, the company's organic growth trends and positive sentiment from KeyBanc's initiation of coverage with an Overweight rating support the buy decision.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is positive at 4.709 and contracting, indicating a bullish trend. RSI is at 75.838, which is neutral but leaning towards overbought territory. Moving averages are converging, suggesting consolidation. Key resistance levels are at R1: 351.547 and R2: 363.873, with the pre-market price already nearing R1. This indicates potential for further upward movement.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options data shows a moderately bullish sentiment with a Put-Call Ratio below 1 and higher call volume relative to puts. Implied volatility is stable, and today's volume is significantly above the 30-day average, indicating increased interest.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

KeyBanc's initiation of coverage with an Overweight rating and a $1,050 price target highlights the company's growth potential in the West Texas market. Strong YoY revenue and net income growth in Q3 2025 further support the company's long-term prospects.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Gross margin dropped by 5.98% YoY, which could indicate rising costs or pricing pressures. Additionally, there are no recent news or significant insider/hedge fund trading trends to act as immediate catalysts.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 17.01% YoY to $203.09M, net income rose by 13.74% YoY to $121.24M, and EPS grew by 14.29% YoY to 1.76. However, gross margin declined by 5.98% YoY to 84.54%, which may warrant monitoring.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

KeyBanc initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $1,050 price target, citing the company's vast land and royalty interests in Texas and its organic growth potential. This reflects strong confidence in the stock's long-term prospects.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TPL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TPL is 1050 USD with a low forecast of 1050 USD and a high forecast of 1050 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 354.780

Low

1050

Averages

1050

High

1050

Current: 354.780

Low

1050

Averages

1050

High

1050

KeyBanc

Overweight

initiated

$1,050

AI Analysis

2025-12-02

Reason

KeyBanc

Price Target

$1,050

AI Analysis

2025-12-02

initiated

Overweight

Reason

KeyBanc last night initiated coverage of Texas Pacific Land with an Overweight rating and $1,050 price target. Texas Pacific is a large owner of land and royalty interests in Texas, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the company is emerging from its "multi-decade run as a sleepy public entity." KeyBanc says growing appreciation for the optionality and organic growth potential embedded in the "vast" west Texas market has driven the stock's rally.

Texas Capital

Hold

Buy

upgrade

2025-06-26

Reason

Texas Capital

Price Target

2025-06-26

upgrade

Hold

Buy

Reason

Texas Capital upgraded Texas Pacific Land to Buy from Hold with a price target of $1,280, up from $1,240, after meeting with management. The firm believes the company will "commercially de-risk" its desalination project and advance one of its power generation and data center opportunities by year end. Further, Texas Pacific is the natural consolidator of some of the larger ranches in the Permian that are expected to come to market over the next three to five years, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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TPL Should I Buy

TPL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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