Should I Buy TPH? TPH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Tri Pointe Homes Inc (Delaware) (TPH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

35.200

1 Day change

-0.73%

52 Week Range

37.520

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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TPH is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The setup is bearish-to-neutral: momentum is weakening (negative, expanding MACD histogram), price is sitting just above near-term support (~33.12), options positioning is slightly defensive (put-heavy open interest), and the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) showed sharp YoY declines in revenue, EPS, and margins. With no Intellectia buy signals today, the higher-probability trade is to wait rather than buy immediately; if you already own it, this is a HOLD into clearer technical improvement or the Feb 25 earnings catalyst.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral. MACD histogram is -0.178 and negatively expanding, signaling deteriorating downside momentum. RSI(6) at ~39.5 is not oversold yet but leans weak, consistent with a soft trend. Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation, but with MACD expanding negative, consolidation is currently biased downward. Key levels: Price 33.35 is just above S1=33.119 (immediate support). A clean break below S1 increases risk toward S2=32.381. Upside recovery likely needs reclaiming Pivot=34.315 first; further resistance at R1=35.511. Pattern-based short-horizon odds (provided): +0.59% next day (slight bounce odds), but -5.23% next week (weak near-term outlook), +1.72% next month (modest recovery potential). Overall, the technical picture does not justify an impatient “buy now” entry.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put open interest exceeds calls (OI put/call 1.28), which is mildly bearish/hedged positioning. Volume put/call is 1.0 on very low absolute volume (8 contracts total), so day-of sentiment is not strong. Volatility: 30D IV ~37.2 versus historical vol ~24.5 indicates options are pricing elevated uncertainty. IV percentile ~32 and IV rank ~15.8 are not extreme, but still suggest a risk-aware market, consistent with a stock near support ahead of earnings. Takeaway: Options data leans cautious rather than bullish; not confirming a strong buy.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

on 2026-02-25 pre-market could reset expectations if margins/orders stabilize; EPS estimate noted at 0.
Analyst upside case exists: Citizens initiated Outperform with a $46 target, citing customer mix less mortgage-rate sensitive and active share repurchases.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Fundamental deterioration in latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): large YoY declines in revenue, EPS, and gross margin pressure the bull case.
and maintained Sector Perform, highlighting affordability challenges, rates, tariffs/policy risk, and volatility into early
Options positioning mildly defensive (put-heavy open interest) and elevated IV suggests uncertainty ahead.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Growth/profitability trend: Material deceleration.

Revenue: $854.7M, down 25.33% YoY
Net income: $56.1M, down 49.76% YoY
EPS: $0.64, down 45.76% YoY
Gross margin: 20.38%, down 12.00% YoY Interpretation: The business is experiencing meaningful YoY contraction and margin compression, which typically caps near-term upside unless the upcoming quarter shows a clear inflection (orders, pricing, incentives, or rate-driven demand improvement).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent direction: Mixed, slightly negative on balance due to a notable target cut.

2026-01-09: RBC Capital lowered PT to $31 from $37; kept Sector Perform (more cautious into early 2026 given affordability/rates/policy/tariff risks).
2026-01-07: Citizens initiated Outperform with $46 PT (bullish on customer mix and buybacks). Wall Street pros vs cons view: Pros: Potential resilience vs rate sensitivity (per Citizens), buybacks support EPS/valuation, and a large platform across multiple states. Cons: Affordability and rate headwinds, sector volatility, and the company’s recent YoY declines in revenue/earnings/margins.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Influential/Political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider trading trends listed as Neutral with no significant recent activity.

TPH Should I Buy