TPH Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how TPH performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, TPH sees a +0.62% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +3.78% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.18%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
TPH Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.25B
-0.46%
9.54%
Gross Margin
24.60%
3.36%
6.22%
Operating Margin
--
--
--
Net Margin
10.31%
-3.64%
5.64%
EPS
1.37
0.74%
16.10%
No Data Available
TPH Earnings Analysis
Tri Pointe Homes Inc (Delaware) Corporation (TPH.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Earnings Beat Expectations: Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. beats earnings expectations with reported EPS of $1.37, exceeding expectations of $1.3.
New Home Sales Performance: In Q4, the company delivered 1,748 new homes generating $1.2 billion in home sales revenue, showcasing strong performance.
Homebuilding Margin Improvement: Homebuilding gross margin improved by 40 basis points year-over-year to 23.3%, indicating operational efficiency.
Net Income Increase: Net income for Q4 was $129 million, contributing to a full-year net income of $458 million, a 40% increase year-over-year.
Record Cash Flow Achievement: The company achieved record operating cash flows and redeemed $450 million of senior notes, strengthening its balance sheet.
Texas Delivery Surge: Tri Pointe experienced significant growth in Texas with a 60% increase in deliveries and an 11% increase in the Carolinas in 2024.
Return on Equity Improvement: Return on average equity improved to 14.5%, a 270 basis point increase over the previous year, reflecting effective capital management.
Share Repurchase Impact: The company repurchased 4 million shares since the program's inception in 2016, reducing shares outstanding by 43%, which supports book value per share growth.
Strong Buyer Profiles: Tri Pointe's backlog customers have strong financial profiles, with average FICO scores of 753 and average household incomes of $220,000, indicating a resilient buyer base.
Market Expansion Plans: The company is expanding into new markets, including Salt Lake City, Orlando, and Coastal Carolinas, with plans for new community openings in 2025 and 2026.
Top Homebuilder Recognition: Tri Pointe was recognized as one of the top two homebuilders in the 2024 America’s Most Trusted Home Builder study, highlighting customer satisfaction and brand strength.
Negative
Seasonal Sales Decline: Softer seasonal sales trends in the third and fourth quarter led to a lower backlog for the company to start 2025.
Consumer Caution Factors: Elevated mortgage rates, sticky inflation, and uncertainty around the election are causing some consumers to stay on the sidelines.
Cancellation Rate Analysis: The company experienced a cancellation rate of 14% on gross orders during the fourth quarter.
Incentives for Inventory Movement: Increased incentives on orders for the fourth quarter rose to 7%, indicating a need to move completed inventory.
Projected Sales Price Decline: For 2025, the company anticipates a lower average sales price between $660,000 and $670,000 compared to previous years.
Homebuilding Gross Margin Outlook: Projected full-year homebuilding gross margin is expected to be in the range of 20.5% to 22%, which is a decrease from previous margins.
SG&A Expense Ratio Increase: SG&A expense ratio is expected to increase to the range of 15% to 16% for the first quarter of 2025.
TPH FAQs
How does TPH typically perform around its earnings report dates?
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TPH Earning Call Sentiment
Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (NYSE:TPH) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
TPH.N
-1.54%Positive
The earnings call summary reveals strong financial performance, with increased EPS, net income, and operating cash flow. The shareholder return plan is bolstered by significant share repurchases. Despite some political and supply chain challenges, the company's strategic market expansion and improved margins are positive indicators. The Q&A section raises some concerns about margin sustainability and management's clarity, but the overall sentiment remains positive given the robust financials and shareholder returns. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a positive stock price prediction.
