TLN Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how TLN performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, TLN sees a -12.63% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +19.68% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +5.95%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
TLN Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
555.00M
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Gross Margin
43.60%
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Operating Margin
19.82%
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Net Margin
30.27%
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EPS
3.16
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No Data Available
TLN Earnings Analysis
Talen Energy Corporation Common Stock Corporation (TLN.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Adjusted EBITDA Performance: 1. Strong Adjusted EBITDA: Talen Energy reported an adjusted EBITDA of $230 million for Q3 2024, contributing to a year-to-date total of $606 million, showcasing robust operational performance.
Free Cash Flow Surge: 2. Increased Free Cash Flow: The company generated $97 million in adjusted free cash flow during Q3 2024, with a year-to-date total of $262 million, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities.
Increased EBITDA Guidance: 3. Raised Financial Guidance: Talen raised its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $750 million to $780 million, indicating confidence in continued financial performance.
Strategic Power Acquisition: 4. Strategic Acquisition: In October, Talen acquired TeraWulf’s 25% share in Nautilus, which allows for strategic flexibility and the potential to sell 150 megawatts of power at more profitable levels.
Shareholder Value Commitment: 5. Shareholder Returns: Talen has returned approximately $950 million to shareholders year-to-date through share repurchases, demonstrating a commitment to capital return and shareholder value.
Negative
Free Cash Flow Decline: 1. Decline in Adjusted Free Cash Flow: Talen's adjusted free cash flow for Q3 2024 was $97 million, a decrease from the previous year's $140 million, primarily due to a $40 million higher pension plan contribution and accelerated raw uranium purchases.
Asset Sale Impact on EBITDA: 2. Impact of Asset Sale: The absence of earnings from the ERCOT generation portfolio, sold in March 2024, negatively affected financial performance, contributing to a year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $606 million, which is less than expected given the loss of this revenue stream.
Pension Contribution Impact: 3. Increased Pension Contributions: The company reported a $40 million increase in pension plan contributions during Q3 2024, which adversely impacted adjusted free cash flow compared to the same quarter last year.
Operational Suspension Impact: 4. Operational Challenges at Nautilus: Operational activities at the Nautilus facility have been suspended, resulting in a loss of 150 megawatts of power that could have been sold at more profitable levels, further straining revenue potential.
Capacity Auction Delays: 5. Regulatory Delays Affecting Capacity Auctions: The PJM capacity auction has been delayed by six months due to complaints, creating uncertainty in the market and hindering the ability to incentivize new generation, which is critical for meeting future demand.
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TLN Earning Call Sentiment
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
TLN.O
-1.43%Positive
The earnings call shows strong financial health with a low net debt to EBITDA ratio and significant liquidity. The upsized share repurchase program is a positive signal for shareholder returns. Despite supply chain challenges and competitive pressures, the company demonstrates strategic planning, with discussions on gas and nuclear opportunities. The Q&A reveals management's cautious optimism and strategic positioning in the market. Overall, the positive financial performance and shareholder returns outweigh the uncertainties, suggesting a positive stock price movement.