NLY Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how NLY performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, NLY sees a +0.33% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.66% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.77%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
NLY Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.68B
142.11%
24.33%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
28.80%
151.30%
400.87%
Net Margin
28.18%
149.96%
361.97%
EPS
0.78
188.64%
1460.00%
No Data Available
NLY Earnings Analysis
Annaly Capital Management Inc Corporation (NLY.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Economic Return: Economic return for Q4 2024 was 1.3%, contributing to a full year economic return of 11.9%, demonstrating strong portfolio performance amidst market volatility.
Earnings Per Share Increase: Earnings available for distribution increased by $0.06 to $0.72 per share, exceeding the dividend for the quarter due to lower financing costs and improved coupon income.
Capital Raise Success: Raised over $400 million in accretive common equity through an ATM in Q4, bringing total capital raised in 2024 to $1.6 billion, enhancing financial strength.
Securitization Achievements: Closed on 4 securitizations totaling $2.3 billion in Q4, with cumulative issuance for the year reaching $11 billion, creating $1.1 billion of proprietary assets for Annaly.
Portfolio Market Value Increase: MSR portfolio market value increased by 25% year-over-year to $3.3 billion, with a 3% rise in valuation on the quarter, reflecting strong cash flow durability and lower delinquencies.
Negative
Decline in Book Value: Book value per share decreased 2% from $19.54 to $19.15, indicating a decline in shareholder value.
Portfolio Losses Analysis: Incurred losses of $4.14 per share on the Agency MBS portfolio and $0.26 per share on the residential credit portfolio, reflecting significant negative performance in these segments.
Quarterly Economic Return Decline: Economic return for Q4 was only 1.3%, a stark contrast to the full year return of 11.9%, suggesting a slowdown in performance during the quarter.
Asset Liquidity Decline: Total assets available for financing decreased by approximately $500 million compared to the third quarter, indicating a reduction in liquidity and financial flexibility.
Repo Days Increase: The weighted average repo days increased to 32 days, up 2 days from Q3, suggesting a potential increase in financing costs and operational inefficiencies.
NLY FAQs
How does NLY typically perform around its earnings report dates?
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NLY Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Annaly Capital Q4 2024 beats EPS forecasts, shares rise
NLY.N
0.78%Positive
The earnings call presents strong financial performance with increased EAD, improved net interest spread and margin, and a safe dividend outlook. The partnership with Rocket Mortgage and record correspondent channel volumes indicate strategic growth. Management's responses in the Q&A convey confidence, despite some uncertainties around GSE reform. The positive economic return and strategic capital allocation further support a positive outlook. Overall, these factors suggest a likely stock price increase in the short term.
