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01/11 16:17
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Financial performance shows strong EBITDA growth and effective cost management, but declining revenues and foreign exchange risks are concerning. The Q&A reveals unclear responses regarding margin declines and debt management, suggesting potential investor unease. The lack of a shareholder return plan further tempers optimism. Given the company's market cap and these factors, the stock price is likely to remain stable, resulting in a neutral prediction.
EBITDA Margin 29.7%, increased by 1.3 percentage points year-over-year due to effective cost management and pricing strategy.
CapEx $246 million, equivalent to 13% of revenues, focused on expanding fixed and mobile access networks.
Net Income ARS 859 billion, attributed to real exchange differences gains due to peso appreciation.
Revenues $1.83 billion, decreased by 13% year-over-year in constant pesos, but improved by 5.6% quarter-over-quarter.
Service Revenues Over ARS 1.3 trillion, decreased by 12% in real terms year-over-year, showing a 235% nominal increase due to price adjustments.
Mobile Subscribers 21.2 million, increased by 578,000 year-over-year, driven by strong performance in the prepaid segment.
Broadband ARPU Increased above inflation year-over-year, reflecting successful pricing strategy.
Cash Flow Generation USD 151 million before dividends and interest payments, robust despite increased working capital needs.
Gross Debt $2.8 billion as of June 30, 2024.
Net Debt $2.4 billion, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.2x, in line with pre-devaluation levels.
EBITDA $543 million, increased by 265% year-over-year in nominal terms.
Total Payment Volume of Personal Pay Multiplied by 61x year-over-year, indicating significant growth in the fintech sector.
Total Payment Number of Personal Pay Multiplied by 21x year-over-year, showcasing the rapid adoption of the service.
Cash and Equivalents $411 million as of June 30, 2024.
Last 12 Months EBITDA $1.1 billion, increased by 52% versus December 2023.
Fintech Growth: Personal Pay reached almost 3 million onboarded clients as of June 2024, achieving a relevant market position.
Mobile Subscriber Growth: Mobile subscriber base increased over 3% year-over-year, with a total of 21.2 million subscribers.
Broadband Growth: FTTH accesses continue to grow rapidly, contributing to an increase in the broadband customer base.
Pay TV Growth: Flow's unique customers reached almost 1.5 million, increasing 11% year-over-year.
Market Positioning in Paraguay: Telecom is the second most important player in the mobile market in Paraguay with 2.4 million mobile customers.
Market Positioning in Uruguay: Telecom is the second most important player in the pay TV market in Uruguay with 117,000 subscribers.
CapEx Focus: CapEx for the first half of 2024 was approximately $246 million, focusing on expanding fixed FTTH and 5G networks.
Cost Management: EBITDA margin improved to 29.7% due to effective cost management and pricing strategies.
Debt Management: Successful issuance of $500 million notes due 2031, with total offers exceeding $1.3 billion, improving maturity profile.
Pricing Strategy: Monthly price adjustments led to positive revenue growth in real terms despite high inflation.
Regulatory Issues: The company faces uncertainties related to ongoing economic regulations and possible changes in legislation that could impact its operations.
Economic Factors: High inflation in Argentina, with an accumulated rate of 79.7% for the first half of 2024 and year-over-year inflation reaching 272%, poses significant challenges to revenue growth and pricing strategies.
Competitive Pressures: The company operates in a challenging economic and competitive environment, necessitating effective pricing strategies and retention actions to maintain its subscriber base.
Supply Chain Challenges: The normalization of commercial vendor financing after restrictions to access the official FX market in 2023 has increased working capital needs, indicating potential supply chain challenges.
Foreign Exchange Risks: The company has experienced fluctuations in its financial results due to real exchange differences, particularly related to its debt denominated in U.S. dollars, which can impact profitability.
Debt Management: The company has a significant gross debt of $2.8 billion, and while it has managed to improve its maturity profile, the high level of debt remains a risk factor.
CapEx: CapEx for the first half of 2024 was approximately $246 million, representing 13% of revenues, focused on expanding fixed FTTH and 5G mobile networks.
Subscriber Growth: Mobile subscriber base grew over 3% year-over-year, with broadband FTTH accesses increasing rapidly.
Fintech Growth: Personal Pay reached almost 3 million onboarded clients, with significant growth in payment volume and market position.
Debt Management: Successful issuance of $500 million notes due 2031, with total offers exceeding $1.3 billion, indicating strong credit quality.
Revenue Expectations: Revenues totaled almost $1.83 billion, with a year-over-year decrease of 13% in constant pesos but a quarter-over-quarter growth of 5.6%.
EBITDA Margin: EBITDA margin for the first half of 2024 was 29.7%, with a year-over-year increase of 1.3 percentage points.
Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio: Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio as of June 2024 was 2.2x, indicating a recovery in operational profitability.
Future CapEx Plans: Expect to deploy 200 5G sites by the end of 2024, continuing investment in network expansion.
Shareholder Return Plan: Telecom Argentina has not explicitly mentioned a shareholder return plan involving dividends or share buybacks during the conference call.
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Financial performance shows strong EBITDA growth and effective cost management, but declining revenues and foreign exchange risks are concerning. The Q&A reveals unclear responses regarding margin declines and debt management, suggesting potential investor unease. The lack of a shareholder return plan further tempers optimism. Given the company's market cap and these factors, the stock price is likely to remain stable, resulting in a neutral prediction.
The earnings call summary shows a mixed financial performance with a net loss and revenue decline, despite some positive trends like EBITDA margin improvement and increased mobile subscribers. The Q&A revealed concerns about inflation, FX depreciation, and unclear management responses, indicating uncertainty. The dividend payments are a positive, but the lack of a share buyback program and high net debt are negatives. Overall, the financial constraints and market uncertainties suggest a negative sentiment, likely leading to a stock price decrease of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
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