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01/11 11:27
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call summary shows a mixed financial performance with a net loss and revenue decline, despite some positive trends like EBITDA margin improvement and increased mobile subscribers. The Q&A revealed concerns about inflation, FX depreciation, and unclear management responses, indicating uncertainty. The dividend payments are a positive, but the lack of a share buyback program and high net debt are negatives. Overall, the financial constraints and market uncertainties suggest a negative sentiment, likely leading to a stock price decrease of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
EBITDA Margin 28.1%, improved year-over-year due to effective cost management initiatives and better inflation pass-through.
CapEx $598 million, 23% of revenues, increased by 23% year-over-year despite delays due to tighter import restrictions.
Free Cash Flow Approximately $400 million, improved compared to 2022, excluding 5G spectrum acquisition.
Revenues $2.5 billion, decreased 9% year-over-year in constant pesos, attributed to discounts and promotions affecting inflation pass-through.
Service Revenues Over ARS1.9 trillion, decreased 10% in real terms, showing a 108% nominal rise due to price increases.
EBITDA $716 million, increased by 120% year-over-year in nominal terms.
Net Loss ARS249 billion, primarily due to the strong devaluation of the peso affecting financial debt.
Gross Debt $2.6 billion, with a net debt of about $2.3 billion.
Total Outstanding Debt More than $2.5 billion, refinanced over $600 million in 2023.
Cash Position $344 million in cash.
Mobile Subscribers 21 million, increased by more than 760,000 year-over-year.
Flow Unique Customers 1.4 million, increased by 10% year-over-year.
Average Monthly Gigabytes per User Increased by 11% year-over-year.
Convergent Unique Customers 2.3 million, up from 2.1 million year-over-year.
Pay TV Customers in Paraguay Continues to grow, specific figures not provided.
5G Sites More than 100 sites operational.
Inflation Rate 211.4% for fiscal year 2023.
5G Rollout: 5G rollout is underway with 100 megahertz of spectrum acquired in the 3.5 gigahertz band and over 100 5G sites operational.
FTTH Expansion: Focus on expanding FTTH technology, contributing to the growth of broadband access.
Flow Platform Growth: Flow unique customers reached over 1.4 million, increasing 10% year-over-year.
Personal Pay: FinTech service Personal Pay achieved over 2 million onboarded clients, becoming the second player in the market for client account balances.
Mobile Subscriber Growth: Mobile subscriber base increased by almost 4% year-over-year, totaling 21 million subscribers.
Regional Operations: Telecom is the second most important player in the mobile market in Paraguay with 2.3 million customers.
CapEx: CapEx for 2023 was approximately $598 million, representing 23% of revenues, focused on network expansion and technology.
Cost Management: EBITDA margin improved to 28.1% due to effective cost management and inflation pass-through.
Debt Management: Successfully refinanced over $600 million in debt, improving the debt composition.
Pricing Strategy: Increased frequency and magnitude of price adjustments to better pass through inflation to service revenues.
Economic Regulations: The company faces uncertainties related to ongoing economic regulations that could impact its operations and financial performance.
Market Demand Changes: Possible changes in the demand for telecom products and services could affect revenue generation.
Macroeconomic Conditions: General market and economic conditions pose risks that could lead to fluctuations in performance.
Inflation Impact: The company has to manage the effects of high inflation, which reached 211.4% in 2023, impacting pricing strategies and cost management.
Currency Devaluation: The abrupt devaluation of the Argentine peso in December 2023 significantly affected financial results, particularly in USD terms.
Import Restrictions: Tighter import restrictions in Argentina have caused delays in capital expenditures, impacting the expansion of services.
Debt Management: The company has incurred additional debt to finance the acquisition of 5G spectrum, which adds to financial risk.
Competitive Pressures: Intense competition in the telecom market has led to a need for frequent price adjustments to retain customers.
Regulatory Issues: The past administration's restrictions on accessing the foreign exchange market for imports have created challenges in managing commercial debt.
CapEx: In 2023, our CapEx was approximately $598 million, equivalent to 23% of our revenues, focusing on FTTH expansion, mobile network growth, and 5G development.
5G Rollout: 5G rollout is underway with 100 megahertz of spectrum acquired in the 3.5 gigahertz band and over 100 5G sites operational.
FinTech Growth: Personal Pay, our FinTech initiative, reached over 2 million clients, becoming the second player in the market in terms of client's remunerated account balances.
Customer Growth: Mobile subscriber base grew almost 4% year-over-year, with significant increases in mobile data usage and FTTH accesses.
Digital Business Ecosystem: We are building a digital business ecosystem offering B2B solutions, including connectivity, cybersecurity, and IoT services.
Revenue Expectations: Telecom’s revenues totaled almost $2.5 billion in 2023, with a nominal increase of 110% but a real decrease of 9% year-over-year.
EBITDA Margin: EBITDA margin for 2023 was 28.1%, with expectations to maintain this margin despite macroeconomic challenges.
Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow generation before dividends and interest payments was approximately $400 million in 2023, with expectations to remain stable.
Debt Management: Successfully refinanced over $600 million of financial debt in 2023, improving the maturity profile and reducing cross-border debt.
Dividend Policy: The company has consistently paid dividends since the merger, with a weighted average dividend yield of 7.7%.
Dividend Yield: The company has a weighted average dividend yield of 7.7%.
Free Cash Flow Generation: Telecom Argentina generated between $400 million and $500 million annually during the last three years considering ordinary CapEx for each year.
Dividend Payment History: The company has paid a dividend every year since the merger.
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Financial performance shows strong EBITDA growth and effective cost management, but declining revenues and foreign exchange risks are concerning. The Q&A reveals unclear responses regarding margin declines and debt management, suggesting potential investor unease. The lack of a shareholder return plan further tempers optimism. Given the company's market cap and these factors, the stock price is likely to remain stable, resulting in a neutral prediction.
The earnings call summary shows a mixed financial performance with a net loss and revenue decline, despite some positive trends like EBITDA margin improvement and increased mobile subscribers. The Q&A revealed concerns about inflation, FX depreciation, and unclear management responses, indicating uncertainty. The dividend payments are a positive, but the lack of a share buyback program and high net debt are negatives. Overall, the financial constraints and market uncertainties suggest a negative sentiment, likely leading to a stock price decrease of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
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